Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 202329 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 529 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021 .AVIATION... VFR to start the 21/00Z TAFs. Areas of MVFR ceilings and possible fog developing overnight with ESE to SE winds at 5 to 10 knots. MVFR ceilings becoming MVFR with a deck around 5000 feet during the day on Sunday along with increasing S winds. Cold front along with associated wind shift to the NW and N and possible SHRA mainly after 22/00Z. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST Sat Feb 20 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]... Surface high pressure has moved off to the east allowing for southerly winds and warmer temperatures to prevail across the region. Tonight will be the first night in a long while where no one across the CWA has freezing temps in the overnight forecast. Even warmer conditions expected tomorrow, though we`ll see some increasing cloudiness as shallow Gulf moisture continues its return to the area. The cold snap has caused a significant drop in water temperatures near the coast (40s-mid 50s) so would anticipate some sea fog development later in the day and evening Sunday as warmer air overspreads. The next front should be moving into northern parts of the region Sunday evening and off the coast by 3am or so. Look for a specking of -ra as it approaches...probably consolidating into a thin band of -ra as it approaches the US59 & I-10 corridor southward. (Nothing of significance & no threat of frozen precip.) 47 LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]... A much welcomed warming trend is expected to take hold through the middle of the upcoming week in the wake of the departing surface cold front on Monday. We`ll see a bit of a drop off in high temperatures (50s to low 60s) and some chillier lows (mid 30s to lower 40s) come Monday as moderate northerlies behind the boundary enhance CAA, though an onshore flow regime quickly redevelops on Tuesday with surface high pressure behind the cold frontal boundary departing eastward. As a result, conditions will make a return to near-seasonable values by mid-week, with highs reaching the mid 60s on Tuesday afternoon and the lower 70s at most locations on Wednesday. While the increasing onshore winds should work to also increase cloudiness during this time, we`ll generally be seeing some of the most pleasant weather for the region in quite some time. Global models, while still divergent towards the end of the extended forecast period, have come into a bit better agreement with the 12Z suite of deterministic solutions. In general, the arrival of the next surface front looks to be on track for Wednesday Night into Thursday as a boundary extending from a deepening low over the Great Lakes region traverses the South Central CONUS. Moisture return ahead of the boundary`s approach remains a bit stronger in the EC solution compared to the latest GFS, however expected QPF values have come into a bit better agreement with showers developing along and ahead of it. Have continued to include chance PoPs as GFS fropa remains a touch faster than the EC and Canadian fropa is much faster. As the boundary reaches the coastal waters, it looks likely to stall offshore before pushing back northward as a surface warm front. Precipitation chances look to return headed into the weekend as this occurs, aided by favorable upper jet dynamics. Amounts and intensity of this precip event remain uncertain for the time being, but early consensus seems to suggest a wet weekend ahead next week. Cady MARINE... Surface high pressure continues its eastward progression overnight, and with deepening pressures over the Four Corners region an increase in onshore winds is anticipated. By tonight or early tomorrow, wind speeds are likely to require cautions in the nearshore and offshore waters as a result. Increasing low-level moisture combined with abnormally cold sea surface temperatures will likely prove favorable for marine fog development on Sunday prior to the arrival of a surface cold front during the overnight hours. In the wake of this departing front, moderate offshore winds will likely require another round of cautions. By late Tuesday, onshore flow quickly redevelops and increasing winds and seas will be in store before the approach of another surface boundary towards the end of next week. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 63 37 56 32 / 0 10 30 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 67 44 62 39 / 0 30 40 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 51 64 49 60 49 / 0 20 40 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99
Thoughts: There was still some small amounts of snow left at my house,
during the morning and early afternoon when I stopped by. I did
not see any more snow when I arrived back my house in Coppefield,
during the early night. I believe all of the snow has melted.
But I will check again tomorrow.
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