Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 032336 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 536 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Ceilings currently SCT-BKN at 4000ft, but expected to lower to MVFR conditions overnight. Most sites will become gusty tomorrow morning due to strengthening low pressure system in the Central Plains with an exception to CLL and UTS which is already gusty. Ceilings expected to lift towards the end of the TAF period and back to VFR conditions, but winds are still expected to be gusty up to 20-25 kts. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 231 PM CST Wed Feb 3 2021/... .LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... The cold front that pushed through Thursday night ends up stalling out over the coastal waters during the day on Friday. So, while the region on Friday will be under a weak high pressure, areas along the coast may see some isolated showers and increased cloud coverage through the day. Nevertheless, CAA behind the front will lead to high temperatures on Friday about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Thursday with most of the region only getting into the low to mid 60. The stalled boundary off the coast eventually washes out and weakens Friday night through the day on Saturday. Patchy fog may be possible over the waters and near the coast Friday into Saturday as higher moisture content spreads out with the weakening front. However, a reinforcing cold front will move through the area from NW to SE overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This will not only continue the cooler weather into the start of the next week, but also bring mostly clear skies and drier conditions. There is relatively weak forcing with the front with not a lot of moisture to work with, so not anticipating much, if any, precipitation with this secondary FROPA. Onshore flow strengthens late Monday into Tuesday influxing WAA and higher moisture into SE Texas. This will bring a chance of showers as a shortwave sliding in from the west will tap into this moisture increasing rain chances across the region Monday night into late Tuesday. The associated cold front pushes through Tuesday night, but guidance varies on the exact timing and strength of this late period front. Fowler .MARINE... Strengthening southerly winds and building seas can be expected tonight through Thursday. Issued a SCA beyond 20nm offshore tonight into Thurs morning. Patchy sea fog may develop late Thursday afternoon in advance of a cold front that should push off the coast late Thursday night and early Friday morning. Moderate north and northeast winds and elevated seas behind this front can be expected going into the weekend as a coastal trough develops offshore then moves east. A stronger cold front is expected early next week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 57 79 44 63 42 / 0 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 58 77 48 63 46 / 0 20 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 70 53 59 54 / 0 20 20 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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