Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 212331 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 531 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 .AVIATION... Gravity-type wave has been moving through SE TX this afternoon and has basically cleared out most of the northern TAF sites (IAH northward). Further to the S, not sure how far clearing line will get, and will amend the TAFs as needed. Still looking for the possibility of an MVFR deck to develop this evening before the cold front`s passage, and could even see some fog development near our coastal area sites. The front (and possible RA/SHRA) is expected to move through CLL around 04Z, through IAH around 06Z and through GLS around 08Z with winds shifting to the NW and N behind the boundary. Becoming VFR at all sites a couple hours after the front moves through with FEW250 or SCT250 and mainly N winds at 5 to 10 knots. VFR tomorrow evening and tomorrow night through Tuesday morning with light winds. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ .SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]... High pressure continues to move east of the CWA and the next cold front is now moving through northern and western parts of the state. Don`t panic though, just some scattered light rain is expected ahead of the boundary (no winter precipitation) and accumulations will be low. The front will enter College Station area around 10PM, move through Houston around midnight, and finally push offshore around 2AM. With the timing of the front, lows tonight remain mild with the upper 30s in College Station and mid to upper 40s along the coast. After the frontal passage tonight, the dry northerly flow will clear out the skies again and the wx becomes quite pleasant. Highs will reach the low to mid 60s with a northerly breeze. Overnight, lows will dip to the mid 30s in the northern counties and low 40s along the coastal counties. 35 LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]... A rather flat/zonal flow regime aloft will prevail and bring seasonably mild weather to the region for much of the week. By the weekend some amplification of a broad trough over the western half of the country will support more southwesterly flow and bring a bit more unsettled weather into early next week. Surface high pressure in the wake of a weak front to start the week will have moved ewd and bring a quick return to mild, onshore flow Tuesday which will hold until another weak front moves into the area Thursday. There are still differences between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF regarding the frontal timing, and high temps Thursday could end up a tad warmer/colder than current forecast. For now, we stayed close to the blend. Regardless, this boundary will bring increasing rain chances Thursday, perhaps beginning as early as Wednesday night. Should the slower and warmer Euro verify, we could see a bit of instability with the front and supports mention of isold thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Friday should be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, however will be short-lived given the southwest flow regime developing aloft and a quick return of a coastal front shifting inland next weekend. This will usher in a return to spring-like lower to mid 70 max temps Saturday/Sunday, along with increasing clouds and a chance of mainly afternoon showers. Evans MARINE... Dewpoint temps along the coast are now several degrees above water temps. Suspect we`ll see some sea fog begin developing ahead of the cold front that should be pushing off the coast around 3am (+/- an hour or two). Fog should lift and northerly winds will increase in the wake of the boundary. Think we`ll probably need the caution flags in the bays and advisory flags offshore for a 6-9 hour time period until conditions improve during the day Mon. High pressure moves off to the east Tues allowing southeast winds to resume. Will once again run into the treat of sea fog Wed evening until possibly Fri morning until another front sags near or off the coast then stall. There is some model uncertainty in regards to this...and if the boundary doesn`t reach the coast we could be in for a more prolonged fog event. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 61 35 67 46 / 50 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 64 39 69 48 / 40 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 60 49 61 55 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
Thoughts: A very pleasant day for Houston, TX. All the snow and ice had melted
when I looked around the house and neighborhood that I live in, in
Cooperfield during the morning. This time last week Houston was preparing
for a historic winter storm. Pretty crazy to think about!
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