Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
087 FXUS64 KHGX 030222 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 822 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Afternoon]... Skies have nearly cleared out and should remain that way through 3 am then expect some cirrus to intrude from the northwest. Temperatures also falling quickly and looks as though the eastern and northeastern areas are on track to cool down a few degrees lower than previous forecast. Slight massage on temperatures tonight. Wednesday will be warmer for sure and with easterly flow early becoming southerly and getting a bit gusty. Mighty nice for early February. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR with L/V winds overnight then increase in cloud cover though still VFR throughout the afternoon. SCT 2500-3500FT layer...may get into MVFR Thursday 03-09z as low level moisture increases but will be offset by drier air aloft and slow Gulf modification. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 230 PM CST Tue Feb 2 2021/... .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]... Surface low pressure will be located over southern KS at 12z Thursday with a strong onshore flow due to a tightening pressure gradient associated with the low. 850 mb temperatures on Thursday are more summer like than winter with 850 temps between 15-16 C. This translates into sfc temperatures in the upper 70`s. The only concern regarding MaxT values is the amount of insolation with some cloud cover developing near the inversion level. The sfc low will move toward the southern Great Lakes and a cold front will move across the state. Moisture levels look rather limited with the Thursday evening front with PW values struggling to reach an inch. The deepest moisture is over the NE zones so feel the higher rain chances, if any occur, should be over the NE zones with drier conditions to the SW. The front should cross SE TX between 03-06z as a 1020 mb surface high pushes into West Texas. 850 mb temps cool but values of 6 to 7 C still support MaxT values in the mid 60`s on Friday. The sfc high will begin to shift east Friday morning and be east of the region by Friday evening. Surface winds will quickly veer from the N to NE and then to the east Friday night as a surface low develops over North Texas. Due to the onshore flow returning so quickly, feel MinT values won`t drop as much previously forecast. There will also be some additional clouds hanging around that should aid in insulation so have trended warmer for Friday night. A light onshore flow will help keep mild temperatures in place on Saturday and 850 mb temps don`t really change much so feel MaxT values will remain near Friday`s values. The surface low will trek toward the Ohio valley and drag another cold front across SE TX late Saturday afternoon. Moisture levels again struggle to reach an inch but the moist layer at least deepens to 700 mb so feel there should be a slightly better chance of rain with the Saturday cold front. A 1025 mb high will build into the central plains but the center of the high moves more east than south so the cold air just grazes SE TX and the brunt of the colder air remains to the east. Sunday and Monday look to have seasonal temperatures and with moisture levels remaining less than an inch, not expecting much in the way of rain. A developing warm front will approach the region next Tuesday with an increase in cloud cover, moisture and slightly warmer temperatures. Another cold front will cross the region next Tuesday night. 43 .MARINE... High pressure centered just to the east brings a light easterly to southeasterly flow over the waters. Seas remain at about 2ft or less and skies are mostly clear. Onshore flow will strengthen Thursday, as the gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Winds will increase to around caution levels until frontal passage on Friday morning. Guidance is indicating some patchy fog ahead of the front, followed by showers along the boundary. Seas will increase with the winds on Thursday, building to around 6-8ft, then slowly subsiding Friday night after FROPA and hold around 4-6ft. Onshore flow quickly reestablishes early in the weekend before a reinforcing front towards the end of the weekend shifts winds northeasterly. 35 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 43 73 57 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 45 70 58 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 54 66 61 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...45 AVIATION...45 MARINE...KBL
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