Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 232341 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 541 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021 .AVIATION... Increasing low level moisture can be expected this evening and overnight with low clouds and patchy fog development (MVFR with potential for IFR/LIFR). These conditions could persist into the morning hours after sunrise before winds begin to pick up resulting in rising ceilings and improving visibilities. Next player will be the potential for some late morning through afternoon RA/SHRA development (might end up being very isolated coverage) ahead of and in association with the next cold front. Forecast does not get any easier heading into tomorrow evening and on into Thursday morning with the front becoming stationary somewhere in/around the area. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST Tue Feb 23 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]... Onshore winds have returned across the area this afternoon and are expected to strengthen further tonight. And per this pattern, low- level moisture will be increasing with overnight low clouds/patchy fog developing through sunrise. Low temperatures should range from the lower to mid 50s. Weds will be cloudy/mostly cloudy as moisture remains trapped under the strong mid-level cap. While there could be some isolated/widely scattered WAA light rain/drizzle near the coast in the morning, the approach of a weak cold front could produce some showers during the afternoon over our northern/central FA. With this boundary forecast to stall and wobble somewhere across SE TX tomorrow on through Thur (as the upper pattern becomes more zonal with time), we could see a range of temperatures from north to south during this time period. But for the most part, will keep CLL much cooler than HOU/GLS which are likely to remain south of the cold front tomorrow and Thur (up- per 50s vs around 70). Additionally at the coast (and the nearshore waters), sea fog should remain the problem as the WAA persists atop the cooler shelf waters. 41 LONG TERM [Thursday night Through Tuesday]... A shortwave will be moving across the Southern Plains Thursday night into Friday morning which should allow for some larger scale lift and an increase in overall precip coverage across the northern 2/3 of the CWA during this period. It may also allow the stalled frontal boundary to sag to near or just off the coast for a short time period making for a challenging temp/fog fcst along the immediate coast. That said, wherever the boundary ends up it`ll head back north as a warm front late Friday and Saturday bringing the typical light -ra & drizzle when this occurs...along with the return of warmer temps and periods of fog as it pushes north. Highs should be back in the upper 70s areawide on Sunday. The next upper trof will dip into the Dessert Southwest this weekend and eject ene across the Plains Mon-Tue. This is when the next front should be arriving along with an associated increase in rain chances. 47 MARINE... Southeasterly flow will continue through Thursday. Warmer air moving over the cold waters will lead to sea fog development beginning late tonight and continuing into at least Thursday evening. A cold front is expected to pull up nearly stationary just inland on Thursday. There`s a chance it sags a bit southward into the nearshore Gulf waters late Thursday night or Friday morning for a short time period before moving back north. In this case, a temporary break in the fog would occur through Friday evening. Otherwise, periods of fog will likely persist into early next week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 55 73 50 59 46 / 10 20 20 60 70 Houston (IAH) 54 73 59 68 52 / 20 30 30 40 50 Galveston (GLS) 55 67 59 69 56 / 10 20 20 40 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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