Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 162345 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 545 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Another challenging TAF cycle ahead as another winter storm makes its way into Southeast Texas. Conditions are VFR now, but will degrade tonight with lowering CIGs and increasing rain chances overnight. Think the pre-storm onshore flow will keep HOU, LBX, and GLS warm enough to avoid FZRA, though HOU will particularly be on a razor`s edge. SGR, IAH, and CXO are currently set to start with FZRA, but transition to SHRA/RA as warmer air filters north. A brief transition may be possible at CLL and UTS, but would be short and go back to FZRA/SHSN as cold air surged in as the storm exits. To simplify a complex TAF (too late!), I don`t bother to show a transition from FZRA at those two sites. Multiple amendments seem likely. However, it is worth mentioning that communications and/or power problems have plagued multiple sites, and we are currently unable to reach SGR or LBX. We will do our best to keep the TAF current, but because of the lack of obs, have added AMD NOT SKED to those two. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 341 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]... Weather conditions will be deteriorating tonight as low pressure develops south of the Matagorda Bay area. As this low moves into our coastal waters overnight and on through the waters Wednesday morning, light precipitation will develop and spread inland while shortwaves from the upper trof to our west scrape across the northern parts of our area. Some icing could develop this evening where precipitation falls near areas around freezing. The real mess looks to begin to develop after midnight as the freezing line moves slowly inland. Expecting increasing precipitation coverage during the overnight through morning hours with significant icing possible the further north you go. After looking at area soundings and model trends, it still looks like locations north of Highway 105 will have the greatest potential for the highest ice accumulation totals of around 1/4 inch or higher. If this occurs, there could be devastating impacts to structures, powerlines and agriculture. Of course, driving should not occur - Stay home! Even areas south of Highway 105 to the I-10 corridor will be susceptible to icing with potential totals of around 1/10 to 1/4 inch (1/10 closer to I-10 and 1/4 closer to Highway 105). Again, the safety risk is too great to get on the roads - Stay home! Improving conditions do not look to occur until late tomorrow morning or early tomorrow afternoon when activity starts to come to an end from west to east. With temperatures not expected to rise much above freezing tomorrow afternoon (especially up north), any freezing ice that has accumulated will be sticking around, and any melted ice will freeze over again tomorrow night through Thursday morning with temperatures in the 20s/30s. Hang in there...warmer temperatures are coming! 42 .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Residual moisture in the wake of the departing surface low/cold front may result in some lingering wintry precipitation heading into Thursday morning, with light snow showers/sleet/ice pellets a possibility. That being said, impacts from this spotty precipitation are likely to be minor in comparison to the weather we anticipate impacting the area in the immediate term. Behind the departing system, northerly winds will result in another frigid day across SE TX, with highs in the mid-30s inland to low 40s near the coast and widespread overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Actions to protect people, pets, plants, and pipes from the persistent extreme cold should be continued during this time. Yet another unseasonably cold day, though a drier one, is in store on friday as high pressure remains dominant over the South Central CONUS. However, as this surface high pushes eastward as we reach Saturday, a long-awaited warming trend will begin as we finally see the re-emergence of an onshore flow pattern. As a result, highs on Saturday break into the 50s while on Sunday temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s at most locations. Increasing moisture upon the redevelopment of southerly winds will push total PWs back towards the vicinity of 1.0 in on Sunday afternoon. Our next chance at precipitation (thankfully, it looks like purely a rain event this time) will come on late Sunday/early Monday as a surface cold front traverses the area and produces scattered showers. The surge of cold air behind this departing boundary will be comparatively weaker and far less persistent, with lows not reaching below freezing in its wake on Monday night and highs returning to the upper 60s/mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon. Cady .MARINE... Light to moderate east to northeast winds are expected this evening with gusts from 15 to 20 knots. Marine conditions become hazardous late tonight ahead of a coastal low moving northward along the upper Texas coast through Thursday. Gusty conditions and seas from 5 to 8 ft are expected along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind this system, a strong surface high builds in keeping moderate to strong northwest winds. Therefore, advisory conditions due to both winds and elevated seas will persist through late Thursday night. Marine conditions will improve Friday into the weekend with light south winds and seas up to 3 ft. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 22 33 24 32 16 / 90 70 20 20 0 Houston (IAH) 27 38 29 39 25 / 80 90 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 38 48 35 43 30 / 90 100 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Colorado...Fort Bend...Grimes...Houston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Madison...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM...Cady AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...05
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1258 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...DANGEROUS ICE STORM EXPECTED TO CREATE LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-300-313-335-171200- /O.CON.KHGX.WS.W.0003.210217T0000Z-210218T1200Z/ Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Colorado- Fort Bend-Grimes-Houston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-Madison- Montgomery-Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty- Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton- Including the cities of Baytown, Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell, Cleveland, Coldspring, College Station, Columbus, Conroe, Corrigan, Crockett, Dayton, Devers, Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo, First Colony, Ganado, Groveton, Hempstead, Houston, Huntsville, Liberty, Livingston, Madisonville, Mission Bend, Missouri City, Navasota, Pasadena, Pecan Grove, Prairie View, Rosenberg, Sealy, Shepherd, Somerville, Sugar Land, The Woodlands, Trinity, Waller, Weimar, and Wharton 1258 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...An approaching low pressure system tonight through tomorrow morning will bring a period of dangerous and potentially destructive freezing rain across the region with ice accumulation anticipated. Amounts are expected to range from a trace to a tenth of an inch along and around the Highway 59 corridor with higher amounts expanding further northward. The highest totals from two tenths of an inch to in excess of one half inch will be to the north of a line from Bryan/College Station to Huntsville to Groveton. Some locations could see isolated higher amounts. These would be devastating amounts of ice with the potential to create additional power outages. * WHERE...Inland areas of Southeast Texas. * WHEN...Tonight through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Icy conditions will worsen quickly across the region tonight with the freezing rain. Very dangerous driving conditions from icy roads are expected. Travel should be avoided. Vegetation and powerlines will become coated with ice and as the ice accumulates will lead to breaking tree limbs and power lines. The power outages already present in many locations could well worsen. Even though some areas may thaw out briefly the potential for refreeze will be high Wednesday night with another cold front bringing subfreezing temperatures back across the region. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of ice are expected or occurring. Travel is expected to become impossible across northern portions of the area. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$Thoughts: Houston got 3 inches of snow!!!! The ice and snow arestill melthing from yesterday. Our power was out for a good32 hours where I live in Copperfield. Power finally came backon around 10:30 am today and had been out since around 1:30 amYesterday, Monday morning. I slept under 10 blankets to keepmyself from freezing. There is another round of ice/sleet/and snow coming to the Houston, TX area tonight and tomorrowmorning. I am excited for this to be over soon!
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