Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 020025 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 625 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Fog threat has ended as the front pushes through the forecast area. As of 00z the boundary is in the CXO to SGR line and will continue to push SE and be in the GLS area around 02z. Along the boundary, mainly showers remain the dominant active weather but a few isolated thunderstorms could not be ruled out. IFR conditions behind the front will set in with some low ceilings as wrap around moister over the TAF sites. Conditions will gradually improve tomorrow as high pressure build into the forecast area. Northerly flow and a dry air mass brings the TAF sites VFR conditions by late afternoon. 35 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 334 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Cool northerly winds will continue overnight with a swath of showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening then an area of spotty showers redeveloping on the backside of the system and moving through the region late tonight through 9 am Tuesday. Temperatures will fall into 40s areawide...near 50 coast so quite a bit cooler than just a day ago. Skies will go from overcast tonight with the rain to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon from west to east. Temperatures on Tuesday will only warm to the mid 50s hampered by the cloud cover and over the west/southwestern areas where the clouds clear earlier highs could reach the lower 60s. 45 .LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]... With light winds prevailing and skies becoming mostly clear, radiational cooling will make Tuesday night/Wednesday morning the coldest night of the week with temperatures in the upper 30s to the north of I-10 and in the low 40s to the south. The area of high pressure that moved in following the passage of Monday morning`s cold front will move eastward on Wednesday and bring full onshore flow back by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. A warming trend will occur in the latter half of the week where we will see our high temperatures back into the 70s by Thursday. While moisture will be on the rise as well, upper-level and mid-level flow will remain mostly zonal. So, precipitation is not expected through at least Friday. Going into Friday afternoon is where the quiet weather takes a backseat to a seemingly more active pattern. There is model consensus in a shortwave trough moving southeastward from the Rockies. With suitable moisture in place (PW values ranging from 1.00"-1.25") along with upper-level divergence and a frontal boundary moving in, there will be suitable lift for rain showers to develop along the frontal boundary as it moves through on Friday night/Saturday morning. Instability does not look favorable enough to throw thunderstorms into the grids for now. Moderate northerly winds will return following this FROPA as well with CAA lasting into Saturday night. Dry air filtering in behind the front will mix out most of the cloud cover by Saturday afternoon, so expecting a much nicer weekend than the previous one which was mainly featured by foggy and warm conditions. Still a bit far out to exactly nail down the temperatures, but highs will likely be in the mid-to-upper 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s/50s. A nice change of pace with some sunshine mixed in as well! High pressure ridges in following this cold front as well, and while onshore flow returns by Monday night, rain chances are expected to hold off until the middle part of next week. 26 .MARINE... Moderate northerly winds in the wake of this morning`s cold front has brought about a period of advisory level conditions with sustained winds of 20-25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots. Expecting the offshore winds to remain moderate through Tuesday afternoon before gradually decreasing. Offshore seas will build up to 5-7 feet going into tomorrow morning before decreasing as well. Offshore winds will persist into Wednesday morning. By Wednesday night, high pressure will begin to slide off to the east and bring back an onshore flow that will prevail going into the weekend. Next wind shift will be with another cold front that is forecast to pass through the area on Friday night/Saturday morning. Following this FROPA, moderate offshore winds are expected to return. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 43 58 37 65 42 / 50 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 47 59 41 66 43 / 80 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 51 56 46 60 52 / 70 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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