Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
935 FXUS64 KHGX 192348 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 648 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The 3500-4500ft cloud deck that was moving into the area from the north has been eroding the past few hours and should not impact any of the terminals. Breezy northerly winds of 8 to 15 knots will continue through sunset, then light and variable conditions will prevail for most TAF sites expect LBX and GLS which will stay at 10 to 15 knots for most of the night. Northerly flow picks back up at sunrise tomorrow morning, but becomes northeasterly and then easterly through the day tomorrow. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 255 PM CDT Fri Mar 19 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Afternoon]... Cloudiness over the northeastern areas will be coming to an end this evening leading to another cool dry night. High pressure over Oklahoma stretches down into the Big Bend and will be sliding east tonight and Saturday turning our winds more easterly. This will also begin to bring back some hardly modified air from the Gulf. Overnight temperatures will dip down into the 40s across the region with favorable radiational cooling profiles. Saturday will be gorgeous Spring day so enjoy it to the fullest. Still dry with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s with plenty of sunshine. 45 .LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]... Temperatures will remain in the 70s for the rest of the forecast period, however with SE winds returning on Sunday and south winds returning by Monday, humidity and cloud cover will begin to increase. Overnight lows will spring back up to the mid-50s and near 60 on Sunday night. These overnight low temperatures will persist until the next round of rain chances arrive. Global models are in more of an agreeance today regarding the timing and location of Monday`s rain chances. An approaching upper-level trough to the northwest along with onshore flow, moisture advection, and other various favorable upper-level dynamics will prompt a stream of showers offshore that will move inland, giving our eastern and northern counties the best chance for rain. By Monday night, an approaching cold front will push through our CWA and offshore where it will remain in proximity to the coast as its associated surface low moves NE towards The Great Lakes. By Tuesday night, model trends have been persistent in showing that the low to mid-levels moisten and the cap erodes, so the coverage and chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday through Wednesday will gradually increase. Both the GFS and ECMWF show the trough axis becoming negatively tilted as it swings past us and places a jet streak over SETX. Depending on the placement of this jet streak could either enhance or hinder deep convection. By late Wednesday and early Thursday, another promising shortwave is expected to push through our area. The GFS is being more aggressive once again with a deeper trough than the ECMWF is depicting along with stronger upper-level forcing dynamics. This far out, went with a more blended option since each global model varies enough to not feel confident weighing one more heavily than the other. KBL .MARINE... Winds and seas will slowly begin to subside today as a high pressure continues to settle in over our area. As it pushes out on Saturday, winds become East on Sunday and then return to onshore SE winds by Monday. Next round of rain chances returns on Monday night due to an approaching front, allowing winds and seas to slowly build back up again. KBL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 68 43 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 46 70 47 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 55 66 56 69 64 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
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