Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 162356 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 656 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021 .AVIATION... Weak warm air advection will persist tonight and VFR ceilings will become MVFR by mid evening and then IFR to LIFR after 09z. A few showers will be possible late tonight in the WAA pattern. Could also get sea fog yet again at KGLS but winds are stronger tonight and water temperature has increased another degree. A cold front will cross the area between 15-18z and a line of showers with an embedded thunderstorm will be possible along the fropa. Should get some rapid clearing behind the front with VFR conds developing between 189-22z. 43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]... Winds have finally started increasing across much of the area and skies have gone scattered to broken across the region and temperatures have jumped up into the upper 70s to around 80 at 2 pm and have another hour of heating to work with before starting the very slow downward slide. Overnight expect cloud skies to set in again with some fog near the coast and expanding inland after midnight. Visibility restrictions overnight should be offset by the stronger winds tonight and a more likely stratus night versus a fog night. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and into the early evening as the area of lift over the central counties shifts further north. Then expecting a lull in the precipitation overnight until the cold front starts to near the region toward sunrise. Wednesday should start off with a strong to very strong cap over the area as the cold front pushes into the area some erosion of the cap will take place but it looks like much of the area will remain capped and a band of showers should develop ahead of the front and then come to an end as the front passes. Timeline as of this package brings the showers into College Station 9-10am...Conroe/Houston noon- 1pm...Galveston...1-2 pm. Again the main form of precip should be showers though some of the northeast/eastern areas where the cap should be a little weaker will have a greater chance of isolated thunderstorms. These areas are in a marginal risk with a sliver of Houston County in slight risk and this is probably close to a worst case scenario there given the cap strength. Rainfall accumulations should come in averaging less than 0.25". WNW winds in the wake of the front should get gusty Wednesday afternoon and temperatures won`t fall much if any given the combination of warm start, downsloping, mild 850 temperatures in the afternoon, and abundant sunshine in the very dry column in the wake of the front. 45 LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]... Behind the departing cold front on Wednesday, SE TX will enter into a period of cooler, drier, and generally pleasant weather that should persist into the upcoming weekend. By Thursday the synoptic picture will dominated by a building ridge aloft and broad surface high pressure over the Central CONUS. Moderate northerlies in the wake of the departing cold front will enhance CAA, pushing temperatures down to more seasonable levels and maintaining dew points in the 40s across most of the area. Highs through Saturday will remain near seasonal norms...near 70 inland and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast and barrier islands. Clear skies will allow for efficient nocturnal radiative cooling during this time, with lows ranging in the 40s to lower 50s. Overall, it looks to be a great weekend ahead to enjoy any outdoor activities that may be in your plans. The aforementioned surface high will slide eastward by late Saturday, allowing for a redevelopment of onshore winds by Sunday morning. This pattern shift will result in a modest increase in both temperatures and moisture into the early part of next week, with highs reaching the mid-70s on Sunday and upper 70s by Tuesday. Global models continue to show significant divergence in the evolution of the next potential cold front, with the more progressive GFS solution showing an amplified 500mb trough and associated surface low dragging a stronger front through the area on Monday night/Tuesday morning and the EC indicating a weaker fropa late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Due to this, I have been fairly broad in assigning PoPs for the beginning of next week but have kept the values themselves low for the time being. Cady MARINE... Moist onshore flow in place and should be strengthening this evening. Will hoist an SCEC for the 20-60nm waters tonight as winds and seas build. Mixing over the Gulf this afternoon looks much more robust than yesterday and visibilities have improved. Sea fog may return after 8 pm with increasing chances through 2 am for the nearshore/bay waters. The fog once it forms should persist through around 6 or 7 am then start mixing out again with winds more south and southwesterly beneath the cap. Will be looking for the cold front to push off the coast near Matagorda around 10 am and through Galveston Bay by around 1 pm. Winds become WNW around 10 knots in the wake of the cold front and start increasing after 9 pm Wednesday and will be needing an SCA for late Wednesday night/early Thursday for sustained winds near 20 knots and gusty. Showers and an a thunderstorm or two may be possible with the passage of the front through the Upper Texas Coastal waters. Pacific high pressure builds in Thursday with CAA waning Thursday evening. Saturday winds becoming easterly and onshore flow develops. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 77 46 67 43 / 60 40 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 69 81 49 68 47 / 30 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 68 74 54 67 53 / 20 50 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99
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