Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
150 FXUS64 KHGX 282326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021 .AVIATION... SW to NE oriented mainly BKN/OVC cloud deck and associated -RA areas will continue to sag southward and break up this evening and on through the overnight hours. Will also continue on the downward trend of winds with NE around 5 knots or less inland sites and 10 to 15 knots at GLS. Still expecting winds to come back around to the SE (but remain under 10 knots) during the day tomorrow as high pressure moves off to the east. Could see increasing clouds at some sites as early as tomorrow afternoon but more likely to happen tomorrow night. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT Sun Mar 28 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]... Axis of the post-frontal shra & virga will continue sagging to and off the coast this evening. Cloud cover will scatter out and winds relax overnight as high pressure settles into the region. Cool overnight/morning temps will transition to some really pleasant wx on Monday with msunny skies, low RH`s and temps making their way into the lower 70s. 47 LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]... As winds continue to veer southward on Tuesday morning, strong low- level moisture transport will bring about a quick rise in dew points and increasing shower chances ahead of our next cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Another round of sea fog may develop during the morning hours, primarily impacting the bays and areas around the coast. With skies remaining broken to overcast throughout the day, I`ve gone a tad lower than national blends on MaxT values for the afternoon, though continued WAA should still push temperatures to around 80 at most locations. Shower coverage should be fairly isolated in nature with the bulk of precipitation not arriving until the approach of the surface boundary. By Wednesday morning, global models continue to indicate an upper longwave trough becoming dominant over the north central CONUS, with an associated surface low dragging a cold front across the Ohio Valley and into the Central/Southern Plains. This front remains on track to move into the Brazos Valley after sunrise, pushing into the Houston metro by early afternoon and reaching the coast by late afternoon. More widespread showers and storms will accompany the boundary, with the greatest chance for thunder remaining around and south of the I-10 corridor where daytime heating will have a better shot at eroding a low-level capping inversion. With the front pushing offshore by Wednesday evening, we`ll enter into a period of cooler, drier, and generally more pleasant weather for the remainder of the work week. Moderate northeasterlies behind the front will bring overnight lows on Wednesday into the 40s to around 50, while highs through Friday should remain below 70 for most locations. Surface high pressure will depart eastward late on Friday, yielding a return to southeast winds and a gradual warmer and more humid trend into next weekend. Cady MARINE... Will maintain the ongoing SCA`s with north winds currently gusting to 27-33kt and 9ft seas offshore. Conditions should gradually improve overnight and Monday as winds/seas diminish. Patchy sea fog may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of the next cold front that will push off the coast during the day Wednesday. Strong north winds, possibly gusting above gale force can be expected in the wake of the front and into early Thursday. May need to keep an eye on water levels Thurs should winds take on a slightly more ewd component in the wind than what is currently forecast. Otherwise, onshore flow should resume Friday into the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 45 74 56 81 55 / 0 0 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 48 73 58 81 65 / 10 0 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 59 68 64 77 68 / 40 0 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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