Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 052121 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 321 PM CST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday Night]... With the cold front currently pushing across the CWA, clearing skies in its wake should be short-lived (in a sense) as wrap-around clouds associated with the main upper low builds back into the region early this evening. Some very isolated activity will be possible with this feature as it moves SE through the CWA. Otherwise, the ongoing bands of scattered light showers just ahead of the cold front may be it in terms of measurable rainfall the next few days for most locations. Cooler/drier air should be filtering down into SE TX tonight through tomorrow. Temperatures tonight/tomorrow will be a bit cooler than we have had these last couple of days. Lows will range from the mid and upper 40s north...in the lower and mid 50s elsewhere. Highs are fore- cast to be in the mid and upper 60s tomorrow. However, with the high settling over the Southern Plains tomorrow night, overnight lows may be a smidge cooler: ranging from around 40 north...mid 40s central.. lower 50s at the coast. 41 && .LONG TERM [Sunday through Saturday]... A broad ridge aloft over the western CONUS begins to migrate eastward into the Plains Saturday. This pattern will bring a prolonged stretch of mostly dry, warm and humid weather. Saturday and Sunday look pleasant with northwest winds, mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the mid to upper 60s. An upper-level shortwave will track through southeast TX Sunday into Monday, but little, if any impact is expected due to strong subsidence and dry-air aloft. Pattern at the surface will be dominated by persistent southerly winds and ridge aloft. This will result in mostly cloudy skies and warm and humid conditions. Isolated/spotty showers cannot be rule out throughout the week, given moisture advection and some weak mid- upper level disturbances. The main weather concern will be temperatures, mainly after Tuesday where 850 hPa temperatures begin to increase into the 10-16C range. Latest NBM guidance continues to struggle with temperatures, suggesting a cold bias. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have increased temperatures a few degrees to produce highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s. Breezy south winds will also be ushering a moist Gulf airmass, leading to an increase in dewpoints after Wednesday. As the ridge weakens towards the end of the week, an upper-level trough over the Pacific northwest will begin to track eastward into the Rockies, dragging a cold front over central/eastern TX by Thu- Fri timeframe. Have included rain chances through this period. 05 && .MARINE... Isolated to scattered showers are expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. Although conditions look marginal, a few thunderstorms may develop this evening. Behind the front, gusty north winds are expected along with elevated seas up to 7 ft. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for all Gulf waters from midnight Saturday through Saturday afternoon. Moderate onshore flow quickly develops by Sunday as the surface high moves eastward. This pattern will prevail through much of the week. Given persistent east to southeast flow, seas will range in the 4 to 6 ft at times. Caution flags and/or advisories will be possible at times. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 66 42 70 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 69 46 70 47 / 30 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 64 53 64 56 / 30 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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