Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 302330 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 630 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (ceilings and possibly fog) this evening and on through the overnight hours. Cold front and wind shift to the NW/N will occur tomorrow, roughly 13-15Z CLL, 16-18Z IAH and 18-20Z GLS. Mainly SHRA can be expected with the front, and anticipate MVFR ceilings and possible SHRA to linger until the mid to late afternoon or maybe early evening hours with gradual improvement coming from N to S. Strong/gusty N winds can be expected to develop behind the front. Eventually VFR late tomorrow and on into tomorrow night with weakening N to NE winds. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT Tue Mar 30 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight through Tomorrow/Wednesday Night]... Isolated to widely scattered showers (developing along to just ahead of the warm front) will continue to lift and track off to the NE for the rest of this afternoon. The strong onshore flow that has been in place for much of today is expected to persist into tonight, and may not decrease until late overnight/very early tomorrow morning as the cold front begins its final approach into SE TX. And so with the el- evated winds, spotty drizzle and abundant low clouds, will keep with the ongoing trends of warmer than MOS low temperatures tonight. Not planning on major changes (from previous) with the timing of the cold front...pushing it into the Brazos Valley during the late morn- ing...Houston metro around noon...Galveston/coast late afternoonish. Still expecting a generally skinny line of showers to accompany this line and perhaps a secondary line of showers in its wake via the 85h front. But that being said, progged QPF will be low...with most loc- ations likely seeing less than one tenth of an inch. Everyone should start warm tomorrow morning, with high temperatures for the northern counties probably occurring at that time. However, the main forecast issue tomorrow behind the front could be winds. Strong N/NE winds in its wake will likely necessitate a Wind Advisory tomorrow afternoon/ early evening. Much cooler/drier tomorrow night. 41 LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]... Drier and much cooler wx will prevail for the remainder of the work week as 1030mb high sinks into the region. Cloud cover will begin increasing late Fri as the high moves to the east and e/se winds resume. A gradual warming trend is expected thru the weekend. There are some differences in regards to how medium range models handle the low/trof currently in the Pacific off Baja. All of them are in agreement as to it filling later in the week, but each has their opinion as to the timing & finer details of what it`ll look like as the remnant axis moves across the state later in the weekend. Will carry the silent 10%`ers for Easter, but those will probably need to be adjusted with time. It does appear Sunday morning will start out cloudy with temps in the 50s with perhaps some spotty dz/-ra around. Onshore winds prevail into early next week, with continued mcldy conditions and slight chances of precip. 47 MARINE... Look for areas sea fog to advance back to the coast/bays tonight with dewpoints around 70 over water in the upper 60s. It`ll dissipate with a strong front that is fcst to push off the coast early in the afternoon. Gale conditions are expected in its wake as NNE winds increase to 25-35kt with some gusts >40kt. Seas will build into the 7-14ft range Wednesday night into Thursday morning before a slow diminishing trend occurs later in the day. Gale Watches are already posted and, assuming no significant forecast changes, be upgraded to warnings in the next 12 hours or so. Winds veer to more of an easterly direction Fri into the weekend. Will need to keep an eye on water levels as a favorable long fetch sets up. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 70 39 67 39 / 20 40 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 76 44 67 42 / 10 50 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 76 52 66 53 / 10 50 30 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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