Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 222322 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 622 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Though conditions are largely VFR, already starting to see some degradation as streamer showers increase in advance of approaching cold front. Because of this start with gusty south winds and VCSH at most terminals, but main action won`t be until later. MVFR becomes more widespread later this evening, with best chance for rain and an isolated thunderstorm comes on the front overnight. Environment here less supportive for thunder and any storms that enter the area will be weakening, so best chance for thunder is probably for CLL, UTS, and maybe CXO. Have a VCTS at IAH to be safe in case an embedded storm survives to within 10 mi of the airport. In the immediate wake of the front, look for low MVFR/IFR CIGs briefly, until clearing begins as west winds bring in drier air. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 303 PM CDT Mon Mar 22 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday]... Some streamer showers have developed (and continue to develop) today generally along a line from near the Sugar Land area southward to off the coast between the Sargent and Surfside Beach areas. Some of the high res models show this persisting into early this evening and possibly shifting a little bit more eastward. The main feature so far today has been the increase in the south to southeast winds (generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 mph) due to a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure off to our east and northeast and the deepening low pressure in/around the west Texas and Texas Panhandle area. These elevated winds look to persist for parts of the area into the evening and early morning hours while a line of showers and thunderstorms develops and moves into our area from the west and northwest. Some of this activity will initially be strong or severe and should be weakening as it heads on into our part of the state. It cannot be totally ruled out that we might see some strong storms in the northern portions of our area before the weakening happens. Whatever does come through the area overnight will work its way eastward during the day tomorrow with gradually clearing skies from west to east. The next rain chances come Wednesday through Thursday morning ahead of and associated with the next storm system and associated cold front. We will also need to monitor parts of this time period for possible strong/severe storms. 42 .LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday Night] Drier and cooler air quickly filters in behind the departing cold front on Thursday night. Sfc high pressure to our north moves eastward through the night, shifting winds to the east and then southeast by Friday afternoon. Therefore, warm and moist air will surge inland, bringing near to slightly above average temperatures Friday and Saturday. Mid-upper level trough moves over the Rockies Friday, dragging a weak cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out ahead and along the boundary given increasing WAA and Gulf moisture. PWAT values increase in the 1.4- 1.7 inch range through the period; thus have low-end PoP chances. A drier airmass settles in late Sunday and Monday with near seasonal temperatures. 05 .MARINE... Moderate to strong onshore winds will prevail through this afternoon and begin to weaken late this evening as the next cold front approaches from the west. Scattered showers will be possible ahead of and along this boundary as it moves and then stalls over the region by early tomorrow morning. Another front is expected to push through the coastal waters late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning and push out by Thursday night. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 80 55 79 58 / 60 10 0 60 50 Houston (IAH) 63 82 60 80 65 / 60 20 0 50 40 Galveston (GLS) 65 74 63 74 66 / 70 40 10 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...42
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