Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 030507 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1107 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .AVIATION... VFR for the next 24+ hours. 47 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CST Tue Mar 2 2021/ SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Afternoon]... Skies have nearly cleared out across the region except for southern portions of the coastal counties. High pressure settles in and winds relax tonight with clear skies and near optimal radiational cooling. Have trended temperatures down towards the bottom of the guidance envelope. Could see some temperatures for Conroe northward get down to 33-37 and Metro 40-42. Warmer near the coast generally mid 40s. Offshore flow weakens and veers which will bring cool and more air into the coastal areas while warmer conditions prevail inland. Borderline Chamber of Commerce weather Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s inland as the upper ridge rebounds over TX. 45 LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]... As surface high pressure continues to push off to the east, onshore flow will be in full effect by Thursday afternoon. Before we get locked in on the upward temperature trend express, be sure to enjoy the cool mornings while you can. Thursday morning will start off with cool temperatures with Wednesday overnight lows in the low-to- mid 40s. With the southeasterly wind picking up throughout the day, highs will reach the upper 60s/low 70s on Thursday afternoon and in the low-to-mid 70s on Friday afternoon. There will be some brief relief on Friday afternoon/evening as a weak cold front pushes through the area. This front will not necessarily bring in much cooler air, it will essentially just hit pause on our warming trend for a day. Rain showers are likely along the frontal boundary as well, especially for locations east of I-45. PW values ranging from 1.00"-1.25" along with upper-level divergence and a shortwave trough would theoretically be enough to get some precipitation going. However, a subsidence inversion around 700 mb will prevent much of the area (especially out west) from seeing any rain during FROPA. As the front moves further east and into a more suitable environment, there will be a small window for isolated thunderstorms for our eastern counties. Surface high pressure moves in following this front as well with CAA lasting through Sunday morning. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the mid-to-upper 60s, with Saturday night becoming quite chilly with lows in mid-to-upper 40s. A pretty nice weekend is on tap for Southeast Texas with plenty of sunshine after dry air filters out most of the cloud cover by Saturday afternoon. Now remember that warming trend that was briefly paused earlier? Well...Here. We. Go. The surface high pressure quickly moves off to the east and places the region back in onshore flow by Sunday night. There is model consensus that this will be quite a lengthy stay with southerly winds prevailing throughout much of next week. This means that temperatures will continue to rise. By Monday, highs will be in the mid 70s and in the upper 70s by Tuesday. You can use your imagination on what Wednesday`s high temperatures will be. Did someone says 80s?! Speaking of Wednesday, favorable jet mechanics come into play in the afternoon hours with a developing jet streak. With PW values near 1.50", a slight chance of rain has been included in the grids. This appears to mainly be a setup for warm advection showers ahead of an incoming cold front. 26 MARINE... Moderate offshore winds continue to prevail following the passage of Monday`s cold front. The Small Craft Advisory for the offshore Gulf waters is in effect until 00z. Wind speeds and seas will continue to gradually decrease throughout the afternoon/evening hours. The offshore winds last through tonight before becoming more easterly as surface high pressure moves off to the east. By Wednesday night, onshore flow will return and persist until the next cold front will push through the waters on Friday afternoon/evening. Our next chance of rain comes along with the front with higher PoPs for the eastern half of the waters. In the wake of this front, moderate offshore flow approaching advisory level will return for Friday night/Saturday morning. However, offshore flow will be brief as surface high pressure swiftly moves to the east by Sunday morning. This will mark the beginning of what appears to be an extended stint of onshore flow that lasts well into next week. 26 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 38 68 42 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 40 68 43 68 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 48 58 51 61 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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