Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 062333 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 533 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR - Skies clearing quickly this evening and winds relaxing. High pressure passes by to the north and winds should veer from the NE this evening to the east Sunday. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 303 PM CST Sat Mar 6 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow/Sunday Night]... No significant forecast issues for the short-term as the pattern re- mains under the influence of a strong ridge of surface high pressure stretching (seemingly) the length of the Mississippi River. A cool/ quiet night is in store for SE TX as the moderate N/NE winds event- ually decouple and becomes more variable overnight. The clear/most- ly clear skies should also allow for efficient radiational cooling as low temperatures fall into the upper 30s far north/lower to mid 40s central and lower 50s at the immediate coast. As the surface high drifts further east tomorrow, winds here should also follow suit. But this upcoming/prevailing east wind will still be a fairly cool and dry one so tomorrow`s highs should be at/close to what we`re seeing today (upper 60s/near 70 for most locations). Lows tomorrow night are expected to be a degree or two warmer than tonight if all goes according to plan. 41 .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Upper level ridging will amplify over Texas on Monday and 850 mb temperatures begin to warm. Fcst soundings show PW values below and inch with a strong cap noted in the 850-700 mb layer. A slight increase in afternoon moisture will lead to a subtle increase in cloud cover during the afternoon. MaxT values will top out around 70 degrees. The upper ridge over northern Mexico and South Texas will remain in place for much of the week ahead as a deep upper level trough slowly moves into the desert southwest. The upper ridge gets nudged ever so slightly into the western Gulf by Thursday with heights in the center of the ridge building to 591 dm. The flow aloft over SE TX will become SW so certainly some Pacific moisture will be drawn overhead with some mid and upper level cloud cover but forecast soundings through the week show a significant capping inversion in the 850-700 mb layer and very dry air in the 850-500 mb layer. Other than squeezing out a few light showers or spotty drizzle in the late nite/early morning, not seeing any mechanisms to generate much precip. There should be a general warm up each day next week with temperatures near 80 degrees Thursday through Saturday. The GFS is advertising a cold front and will ignore that for now as ensembles show either a zonal flow or upper level ridging over the region. Neither scenario looks favorable for a front next weekend. So the week ahead is looking warm with very little in the way of appreciable rainfall. 43 .MARINE... High pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will ridge into Texas tonight. This will produce NE winds over the coastal waters. Will maintain a SCEC for the 0-60 Gulf waters through 09z as the cooler air flowing over the warmer waters should maintain a fairly tight gradient over the Gulf waters. The surface high will drift toward the deep south with surface winds veering to the E-SE by evening. The sfc high will move further east and low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies. This will allow a SE wind to develop and likely persist into next weekend. The pressure gradient will also tighten quite a bit by the end of the week and a SCEC will probably be needed Wednesday night and beyond over parts of the coastal waters. Surface dew points will once again reach the lower/middle 60`s by the middle of next week but water temperatures have begun to slowly warm and they will continue warm next week with a persistent S-SE flow. Not sure the threat for sea fog will be as high as it was a few weeks ago. Just something that`ll need to be watched. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 40 68 41 72 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 44 68 46 71 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 62 55 67 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 AM CST Sunday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ AVIATION...45
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