Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 080027 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 627 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]... Plenty of smoke this evening drifting across the region from all the prescribed fires. Otherwise it should be a clear cool night with lows slowly falling after midnight to around 40 over the north and mid 40s central...mid 50s on the coast. S/W moving towards the region could bring some patchy mid clouds but should be out of the region by 3 am. Tomorrow morning east/southeast winds increasing as pressures fall over NM/CO and winds start getting gusty late in the morning. Gradual increase in clouds with partly cloudy skies expected as 3500-5000ft layer starts moistening up. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR. FEW-SCT 3500-5000 after 15z across the south and southwest areas slowly lifting northeastward through the afternoon. Gusty southeast winds 15-20 knots possible. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 243 PM CST Sun Mar 7 2021/... .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Weak upper level ridging will be located over South Texas with surface high pressure over the eastern US. The upper ridge will slowly move into the western Gulf while surface low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. There will be very little day to day change in the sensible weather as the upper level ridge remains the dominant weather feature. This feature will suppress rain chances and allow for above normal temperatures for the next 5-6 days. The onshore flow will strengthen as the low near the Rockies deepens. With the low level moisture increasing, there will be more low clouds overnight leading to warmer MinT values. The upper ridge over the Gulf will foster a SW flow over the region and this will tap Pacific moisture giving the region some mid to high level clouds during the day. 850 mb temps warm from 10 C on Tuesday to 12.5 degrees on Wednesday and they should stay between 12-13 C for the rest of the week. Daytime MaxT values will probably top out in the lower/mid 70`s Tuesday and warm to near 80 for the rest of the week. Some change in the weather pattern is expected next weekend as a strong upper level low moves into the southern Rockies. This will likely suppress the upper ridge over the Gulf leading to some slightly cooler temperatures. The GFS remains much faster with a cold front bringing it through the region on Saturday night while the ECMWF brings the front through next Sunday night. Prefer the slower solution at this time and have leaned toward a WPC/ECMWF/GEM blend for winds and temperatures. The front should generate a line of showers and storms next Sunday night as well. 43 .MARINE... Surface high pressure over the mid Tennessee valley will continue to ridge into Texas tonight. The pressure gradient remains tight this evening so borderline SCEC conditions over the Gulf waters are possible this evening. The gradient is expected to relax later tonight into Monday and winds should decrease. Low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies on Tuesday and the pressure gradient will begin to tighten. The surface low will move into the southern plains on Wednesday and the gradient will tighten further and a SCEC looks likely for parts of the Gulf Wednesday through Friday. The pressure gradient will relax on Saturday as low pressure develops in southwest Texas ut tighten again Saturday night as the moves toward South Texas. A secondary area of low pressure will develop over OK on Sunday and this feature will become the primary low as it moves east. This low will drag a cold front across SE TX next Sunday night. Dew points will increase this week into the low/mid 60`s. The current water temperature is around 60 so the warmer air moving over the cooler water could produce some patchy sea fog. That said, the long and persistent onshore flow will bring warmer water toward the upper Texas coast. Not exactly a clear cut case for dense sea as the waters warm. Stay alert as conditions are somewhat favorable for sea fog this week. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 72 53 75 58 / 0 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 45 71 56 73 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 66 60 69 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...45 LONG TERM...05
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