Monday, March 29, 2021

Mar. 29 21

 Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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175
FXUS64 KHGX 292332
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (ceilings and possibly fog)
this evening and on through the overnight hours with the return of
SE winds and associated increasing moisture levels. Still expecting
slowly improving conditions in the mid to late morning hours with -SHRA
possible as the day progresses. A return of MVFR/IFR levels (again,
ceilings and possibly fog) looks to probably be setting up for tomorrow
night through Wednesday morning. Strong cold front with associated SHRA
and possible TSRA) should be entering the CLL/UTS areas around 31/12Z.
42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...
A very weak trof axis/shortwave is in the process of moving across
the area. Moisture is quite limited inland, though a few locations
across the southern part of the area and offshore may see a few
sprinkles of -ra between now and sunset. Otherwise, llvl moisture
and cloudiness will be on the increase overnight. SREF is
highlighting areas for some late night fog development west of
I-45. Continued mcldy on Tues with some sct pockets of -ra
developing under increasing sly llvl jet, but nothing of
significance in regards to intensity or amounts. Might see some
patchy sea fog try to develop and approach the coast toward sunset
Tues.  47

LONG TERM [Tuesday night Through Monday]...
Model guidance is in good agreement that a significant cold front
will move across southeast Texas on Wednesday. Near and ahead of the
boundary scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected, with a few strong storms possible across southeast areas
around mid-day and during the early afternoon hours. The best chance
of rain will occur across east-southeast areas, with much lower rain
chances across southwest areas. The front is expected to reach the
coast during the afternoon hours with precipitation ending across
the area by late Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog is expected Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning across coastal areas ahead of the front.

Max temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s across NW
areas to the upper 70s across coastal areas, where some surface
heating will occur ahead of the front. A much colder airmass will
push in behind the cold front with upper 30s possible across far
northern areas by Thursday morning. Dry conditions and below normal
temperatures will persist through Saturday. A broad mid to upper
level ridge will build late in the weekend and into early next week,
resulting in a significant warmup. 33

MARINE...
Still have some moderate e winds and 6ft seas offshore so will be
transitioning things down to a SCEC thru the evening hours.
Otherwise, onshore winds are in the process of returning to the
area. Some patchy sea fog will be possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning prior to the arrival of a strong cold front
Wednesday afternoon. Strong north winds, likely gusting above gale
force, can be expected in the wake of the front and into early
Thursday along with high seas. Gale Watches and Warnings will
likely be required. Will also need to keep an eye on water levels
Thurs-Fri with a more erly component to the wind directions. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish on Friday and become east to
southeast as high pressure moves away from the area.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      58  81  57  66  41 /  10  20  10  20   0
Houston (IAH)              60  82  66  74  46 /  10  40   0  30   0
Galveston (GLS)            64  75  68  75  53 /  20  30   0  40   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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