Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
175 FXUS64 KHGX 292332 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 632 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to deteriorate to MVFR/IFR (ceilings and possibly fog) this evening and on through the overnight hours with the return of SE winds and associated increasing moisture levels. Still expecting slowly improving conditions in the mid to late morning hours with -SHRA possible as the day progresses. A return of MVFR/IFR levels (again, ceilings and possibly fog) looks to probably be setting up for tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. Strong cold front with associated SHRA and possible TSRA) should be entering the CLL/UTS areas around 31/12Z. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]... A very weak trof axis/shortwave is in the process of moving across the area. Moisture is quite limited inland, though a few locations across the southern part of the area and offshore may see a few sprinkles of -ra between now and sunset. Otherwise, llvl moisture and cloudiness will be on the increase overnight. SREF is highlighting areas for some late night fog development west of I-45. Continued mcldy on Tues with some sct pockets of -ra developing under increasing sly llvl jet, but nothing of significance in regards to intensity or amounts. Might see some patchy sea fog try to develop and approach the coast toward sunset Tues. 47 LONG TERM [Tuesday night Through Monday]... Model guidance is in good agreement that a significant cold front will move across southeast Texas on Wednesday. Near and ahead of the boundary scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, with a few strong storms possible across southeast areas around mid-day and during the early afternoon hours. The best chance of rain will occur across east-southeast areas, with much lower rain chances across southwest areas. The front is expected to reach the coast during the afternoon hours with precipitation ending across the area by late Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across coastal areas ahead of the front. Max temperatures on Wednesday will range from the mid 60s across NW areas to the upper 70s across coastal areas, where some surface heating will occur ahead of the front. A much colder airmass will push in behind the cold front with upper 30s possible across far northern areas by Thursday morning. Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will persist through Saturday. A broad mid to upper level ridge will build late in the weekend and into early next week, resulting in a significant warmup. 33 MARINE... Still have some moderate e winds and 6ft seas offshore so will be transitioning things down to a SCEC thru the evening hours. Otherwise, onshore winds are in the process of returning to the area. Some patchy sea fog will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning prior to the arrival of a strong cold front Wednesday afternoon. Strong north winds, likely gusting above gale force, can be expected in the wake of the front and into early Thursday along with high seas. Gale Watches and Warnings will likely be required. Will also need to keep an eye on water levels Thurs-Fri with a more erly component to the wind directions. Winds and seas will gradually diminish on Friday and become east to southeast as high pressure moves away from the area. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 58 81 57 66 41 / 10 20 10 20 0 Houston (IAH) 60 82 66 74 46 / 10 40 0 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 64 75 68 75 53 / 20 30 0 40 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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