000 FXUS64 KHGX 220046 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 746 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .DISCUSSION... Dry air still firmly entrenched over the northeast areas with light northeast or easterly winds. Over the southwest half of the region southeasterly flow ongoing though light as high pressure over East Texas slides away to the east. Weak pressure gradient tonight will keep winds light or calm and clear skies should allow for excellent radiational cooling. Warm again tomorrow afternoon with above normal temperatures and still mainly cirrus in the morning with a few cumulus dotting the areas skies in the afternoon. 45 Thanks going out from the staff here to the CRP office for backing us up so we could host the Integrated Warning Team meeting. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/ AVIATION... VFR expected through the period with SCT-BKN cirrus around FL250 this evening and tonight. Light and variable winds overnight will become southeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots mid to late morning. Stronger gusts near 20 knots will be possible during the afternoon. Moisture return as a result of southeast winds tomorrow may result in a cumulus field around FL035 developing late in the TAF period. Huffman PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX/ DISCUSSION... High pressure over the area will keep dry and mild weather for the next several days. As the high moves off to the east, another disturbance coming out of the Rockies will push another front through the region early next week, with increased rain chances and potential for thunderstorms. SHORT TERM [Tonight through Friday]... Winds decouple once again after sunset tonight, with just some high clouds between us and clear skies overnight. Onshore flow resumes in earnest Thursday afternoon, but with dry air currently in place it will take a while to moisten up the atmosphere enough for isolated streamer showers. In the meantime, that same return flow will kick up winds across Southeast Texas, with gusts to 20 mph or so Thursday afternoon and again Friday. Temperatures will be relatively cool again tonight with clear skies, light winds and dry air in place. Temperatures will moderate on into the weekend as the Gulf brings more moisture to the area. LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]... Moisture will continue to increase over the weekend and early next week out ahead of a cold front. Temperatures aloft indicate some capping as PWATs increase, so will maintain low chance pops through the weekend. Rain chances increase significantly as an upper disturbance drags a cold front through Texas. Have trended closer to the ECMWF solution that focuses highest rain chances for Tuesday and beyond as the cold front stalls over central Texas and upper disturbances work to remove any convective inhibition that remains. Models still are not in perfect alignment, so some future readjustments of strength and timing are expected before the event begins. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 50 78 59 80 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 52 78 60 80 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 62 73 66 75 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...45
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX Issued by National Weather Service CORPUS CHRISTI TX 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-222045- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 336 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$
000 FXUS64 KHGX 192353 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 653 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .AVIATION... VFR. Very warm and dry across the region. Dry thunderstorms have departed to the east of GLS. Lingering cirrus moving over the region. WNW-NW winds gusting to around 20kts at 23z will be relaxing a little this evening then bump back up as reinforcing cold front in N TX arrives after midnight. Gusty NW winds tomorrow morning gradually relaxing in the afternoon. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ DISCUSSION... Temperatures were very warm this afternoon and Galveston established a new record high temperature for the day. A combination of a warm start to the day and a west wind will generally deliver very warm temps to the region. At 2 PM, a cold front extended from low pressure over So Missouri to near Texarkana to near Rockport to Laredo. Radar is showing a few showers/thunderstorms along the middle Texas coast as lift from the front coupled with PW values near an inch and daytime heating trigger precipitation. The experimental HRRR and TT WRF both show some showers moving up the coast late this afternoon into this evening so have added isolated shra/tsra to areas mainly east of US Highway 59 but showers should mainly be along the coast. Once the front clears the coast, skies will clear area wide. Winds will decouple inland and the dry air in place will allow for ideal radiational cooling. Low temps by Tuesday morning will cool into the mid and upper 40s. The rest of the week looks quiet with seasonal temperatures. The surface high will settle over SE TX on Wednesday morning with the coolest temperatures of the week occurring that morning. The high moves east of the region by Wednesday evening and onshore winds will return and bring a slow increase in low level moisture. Winds will increase Thursday night into Friday as low pressure in the lee of the Rockies deepens. Upper level ridging over northern Mexico will amplify and expand over the state and suppress rain chances through Friday night. Low level moisture will deepen enough that a few showers will be possible by Saturday under a strengthening capping inversion. The cap will remain in place through Monday albeit slightly weaker as the upper level ridge is displaced to the east as a deepening upper trough moves into the southern Rockies. The middle of next week is looking wet as the upper level trough moves very slowly across the southern plains. 43 MARINE... A surge of cooler/drier air will arrive overnight across the coastal waters. Offshore flow should increase after midnight and to near 20kt in the Gulf toward 3am or so. Will be issuing a Small Craft Advisory for the Gulf waters starting then. Winds will slowly diminish in the late morning and afternoon hours. Onshore winds will resume Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east. As lee side pressures fall, winds will strengthen across a lengthening fetch and seas will build going into the weekend. Combination of SCEC/SCA flags may be needed starting as early as Thurs. 47 FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Tuesday. In the very short-term we need to keep an eye for any lightning strikes from the isolated cells developing to the southwest of the area. Some Hires guidance takes some of these cells across southern parts of the region later this afternoon. Any sparks could quickly start a fire. Very dry conditions are in place across the region with current RH`s between 12-25%. Though winds are gusting at times, speeds are mostly below widespread Red flag Warning criteria. Winds should rapidly diminish toward sunset. Speeds will increase once again by mid Tuesday morning with mixing behind a reinforcing surge of a drier airmass. Northerly winds will be stronger than what we saw today and widespread 13g23kt speeds can be expected. However, with the cooler temps, RH`s look to bottom out between 25-35%. Still needs to be monitored closely... 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 47 70 45 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 49 73 48 76 54 / 10 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 71 55 72 62 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 3 AM CDT Tuesday through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...41 Aviation/Marine...45
000 FXUS64 KHGX 180456 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 .AVIATION... S/W departing the northern areas with weak PVA along the north side of the speed max still helping with weak lift and elevated SHRA/isolated TSRA over the northern areas. Expect these to continue to weaken and have not jumped on the HRRR solutions for these to intensify and dive southeastward. MVFR/IFR deck should continue to expand northward tonight with a delay compared to last night. Sea fog gradually getting thicker near the coast. GLS should be down to LIFR by 08z if not sooner. Showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with another s/w that rides in from the west but confidence is still fairly low with a fairly stout cap that blankets the area in the morning but with temperatures reaching the 82-83 degree range the cap should have nearly eroded (19-21z). After the showers depart in the early evening will be looking for the Pacific cold front/pre-frontal trough to swing winds to the west around 08z at IAH with the potential for SHRA again. 45 .MARINE... Marine dense fog advisory out shortly. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ DISCUSSION... Did do an update to the grids earlier this evening...to account for the convection developing out west that was headed this way. Activity to the north did hold together and is currently moving across our northern CWA. The storms out west, however, were not quite as potent. But at this time, trends are indicating things are winding down (with the loss of heating). Will likely be mak- ing just a few more tweaks to clean up the wording. The rest of the the forecast looks good. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/ Another warm and humid day across SE TX. GLS is within one degree of tying a record high temperature. Clouds have been slow to clear this afternoon but with another hour or so of heating, it`ll still be possible to generate some showers. An upper level disturbance over Central Texas will move east tonight and this feature will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over mainly the northern third of SE TX. The best chance for storms over the north will be between 9 PM and 2 AM. SPC has brought slight risk for severe storms into the CWA. The 12z ARW and NMM are more aggressive with precipitation working its way into the northern zones tonight. Still have some significant concerns that strong capping will limit the convective potential. Areas to the south, including the city of Houston, feel capping will hold and only weak showers will be possible tonight. Water temps have warmed a few degrees since yesterday but SREF ensembles still show some potential for sea fog tonight and will continue to mention fog near the coast and over the coastal waters. On Sunday, capping should limit precipitation to just some weak showers in the morning but fcst soundings show the cap weakening between 18-21z, convective temps in the lower 80s and PW values increasing to 1.55 inches. SE TX will also lie in weak RRQ by afternoon and this feature might provide enough lift to generate some afternoon shra/tsra. A dry line or surface trough will move though SE TX on Sunday night and skies will begin to clear from west to east. The drier air will allow for some cooler temps over the western half of the CWA. On Monday, drier air in place will allow for a large diurnal range in temperatures and high temps will warm into the lower 80`s. RH values will plummet with the warm daytime temps and dew points in the 30`s. Min RH values will probably fall into the teens and W-NW winds will be around 15 mph with higher gusts. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday and a Red Flag Warning may be required. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible on Tuesday as a secondary surge of cooler air filters into the region. Winds look a bit higher on Tuesday but temperatures look cooler and RH looks a bit higher. High pressure will build into Texas on Tuesday and settle over SE TX by Wednesday morning. This feature will bring clear skies, low humidity and seasonal temperatures. The high moves east on Wednesday and onshore winds will return by Wednesday night with onshore winds continuing into next weekend. A subtle warm up will begin on Thursday with temps again in the lower 80s by next weekend as weak upper level ridging develops over northern Mexico. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 67 84 60 80 49 / 50 30 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 84 68 83 53 / 20 30 30 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 69 80 58 / 10 20 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...41 Aviation/Marine...45
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-182015- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight north of a Bryan to Livingston line as a weak upper level disturbance moves across the state. The primary severe weather hazard will be large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Dry air will move into Southeast Texas on Monday and humidity levels will fall below 20 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible as west winds increase to 15 to 20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible on Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will be be possible late this evening. $$
000 FXUS64 KHGX 170305 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1005 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .DISCUSSION... Only minor tweaks to the grids for the overnight hours with this update...mainly to match the ongoing trends. Mid/high clouds are continuing to move in from the west this evening as moisture con- tinues to deepen from the south/Gulf. As per the current obs the the gusty SW winds have begun to decouple and we are starting to see visibilities/ceilings fall over parts of the area. These low dewpoint spreads/lighter winds bode well for further fog develop- ment overnight through early Saturday morning (as covered by the current grids). 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018/ The disturbance bringing showers to the region this afternoon will exit the area and this will allow precip to end late this afternoon. Onshore winds will continue to draw gulf moisture into the region tonight. Winds will slacken tonight and the set up looks favorable for areas of fog to develop over much of SE TX. Radiation fog possible well inland and think some sea fog possible near the coast. Dew points in the mid/upper 60s tonight will keep temperatures on the warm side and min temps will only cool into the mid/upper 60s. The warm start to Saturday coupled with warm 850 mb temps should yield high temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. Any residual fog will dissipate by mid morning leaving skies mostly cloudy. Fcst soundings show a weak capping inversion in place but the cap could erode between 21-00z once temps warm into the lower 80s. Fcst soundings show PW values reaching 1.65 inches by late afternoon but also shows some dry air in the 85-70 mb layer. Will carry low end PoPs for now and see how things evolve tomorrow afternoon. A strong capping inversion develops Saturday night with very little moisture beneath the cap and a very dry conditions in the 900-600 mb layer. Will carry a slight chance of showers but most areas should remain dry. Potential again exists for patchy fog inland and a greater threat for sea fog near the coast. Sunday will be similar to Saturday as warm 850 temps and the warms start to the day will yield high temperatures in the lower 80s. A dry layer was noted between 850-700 mb with a strong cap weakening toward 00z. Most of the area will remain dry but can`t rule out some pesky showers. On Sunday night, models diverge a bit but it looks like a weak surface trough of low pressure or dry line will move into the region. The area is capped to the south but over the north, low level saturation deepens to 700 mb but forcing looks weak and upper level support also looks poor. Will carry chance PoPs over the north with lower PoPs south and along the coast on Sunday night. Monday looks dry and warm and RH values will fall to near 25 percent. Could have some elevated fire weather concerns mainly west of I-45. A secondary surge of colder air will come into SE TX Monday night and temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Surface high pressure will move east of the area by Thursday and a warm up will begin and persist through next Saturday. Moisture levels look benign so not expecting precip with the return of warmer temps. Another cold front will be possible by next Sunday, 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 84 66 81 59 / 10 20 20 40 30 Houston (IAH) 68 85 68 81 67 / 10 20 20 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 69 76 66 75 67 / 10 20 10 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for the following zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda. GM...NONE. && $$
