Houston, TX radar, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Locations: Northwest, west, and the heights area of Houston, TX.
Thoughts: The day was mostly cloudy and warm with scattered light to moderate showers in the early and maybe mid-morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 110335 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 935 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018 .UPDATE... A quiet night for the radar...high cloudiness up north and low overcast across the coastal counties. A tight enough western corridor pressure gradient to maintain higher south winds out west but overall onshore flow will weaken past midnight. Interior mid to upper 60 F dew point air/lower 70 F dew point coastal air mass will be moist enough to mention early Sunday morning fog. Areas of thicker (sea?) fog and low overcast will plague the coastal counties while...further inland where winds will stay up a bit longer...areas of patchy fog may develop just downstream of an approaching cold front. Mid-level dry air with a stout 850-950 mb capping layer should be enough to hold any precipitation chances to slight/low end probabilities through tomorrow morning. Low QPF with the higher probs for primarily showers to focus across the northeastern and central eastern counties through 18Z Sunday. The cold front is timed to travel across the northern tier counties shortly after sunrise...through the metro area shortly after noon...and be off the coast by late afternoon. Model guidance does want to focus some late morning and afternoon post-frontal light precipitation along the mid level front mainly over the (east) central CWA. If the surface boundary does race out away from the mid-level front then a brief period of rain with isolated (elevated) thunder is possible during the day tomorrow. Expecting any frontal or post-frontal activity to not make much of a mark. Moderate to occasionally strong northerlies in the front`s late Sunday-early Monday wake will introduce short term marine advisory flags. The next several days (for what is Spring Break for many) look to be absolutely beautiful! Mainly clear skies with cool evenings (40s) and mild days (60s) under light north breezes. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ AVIATION... Expect stratus to fill back in overnight. Most TAF sites should ceilings transition to low MVFR or IFR between 2-7z (we`re already there at the coast with some 4-6sm vsbys in sea fog too). Look for a continued downward trend into sunrise. Cold front should be making it into northern parts of se Tx around mid-morning and off the coast early in the afternoon. North winds will increase and become gusty a few hours after the initial windshift. We could see some sct areas of frontal rain as well but overall impacts should be negligible considering ceilings should be lifting and the precip, if any, should be fairly light. 47 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018/ Main feature of the forecast period will be on the impending cold front, with some rain chances into Sunday, as well as cooler and drier weather for at least the first half of the week. Weather will continue to remain quiet into next weekend, but as winds eventually turn to be onshore again, we`ll begin to gradually warm and see moisture increase. As it does, we may see the return of at least some low shower chances. NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... After a fairly cloudy morning, the sun has broken through across the area, with mostly fair weather cumulus dotting the sky. A smattering of clouds around Galveston Bay and in the offshore waters look to have a little more vertical growth, confirmed by a bit more of a greenish hue in the Day Cloud Phase RGB. Radar reveals that the only showers are out over the offshore waters of the Gulf. We can expect more of the same for the rest of the afternoon, which means warm temperatures across the area. But, from there, we should expect clouds to return overnight. We should stay dry through the evening, but as the cold front approaches overnight, rain chances in the north will start to increase. In the meantime, closer to the coast, the pressure gradient may relax enough to allow for some fog to form. Taking kind of a middle path here with patchy fog - if the winds don`t drop off at all, we`ll stay clear. But if for some reason we are able to go calm, there`s enough moisture that some could see the fog get pretty dense. Since I`m not expecting the gradient to go that slack, we`ll stick with the patchy fog here. SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]... The cold front cometh! Its time of arrival seems to be slowing by the day, but it should still enter the area and pass through College Station to Crockett(ish) around or just after dawn. Look for it to reach the coast towards mid-day and push farther offshore through the afternoon. The best rain chances are likely going to be in the northeast, where it`ll be down with H-T-P (Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties). As you head southeast, those chances will dwindle as the best vorticity advection remains to our northeast, and much of the area is in more of a subsident region relative to the upper jet. It`s a little messy and not super clear cut, so we may manage for something to defeat the cap, but it`s clearly not as supportive of rain there as to the north and northeast of the metro. Sunday afternoon may be...interesting. Though the front is through the area at the surface, progged precipitable water remains around or above 1.25 inches. Now, add onto that the arrival of the trailing 850 front, and we might be in a spot to pick up some post-frontal rain showers. Looking at some forecast soundings, there`s even a bit of lingering instability aloft, so a strike or two of thunder isn`t even out of the question. Did undercut guidance some, as there may be question of the vertical distribution of moisture relative to what may be lifted over the frontal surface, but it seems reasonable for some precip to be generated here. From Sunday night through Monday night, the story is the influx of cooler and drier air. After temperatures have been in the 70s and 80s, look for a return of the 60s on Monday (which will carry through mid- week). And, with dewpoints dropping into the mid- 30s, cool spots way up north might see overnight lows reach or even briefly dip below 40 degrees one more time. LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... Cooler and drier weather dominates through the mid-week as high pressure slowly drops from the Central Plains into the Deep South. The sunnier skies will likely mean slowly warming temperatures, but 60s for highs will be the rule until the late week. Onshore flow doesn`t look to really resume until Wednesday night or Thursday, which will be what really gets us going back into the 70s or low 80s for the weekend. It will also pump up dewpoints and general column moisture. The details obviously depend on your favorite model, but there`s general consensus that along with the increased moisture, passing shortwave troughs should help support at least some lighter rain showers towards the end of the week. Rather than chase the folly of timing super-specifically, I spread relatively low rain chances from Thursday into the weekend. There`s a little variation in some attempt to suss out the most likely times, but it`s probably not worth getting too attached to specifics at this range. 25 && MARINE... Moist onshore flow in the 10-15 knot range should continue tonight with a cold front marching down to the coast Sunday close to noon. In the meantime expect some light fog/haze and seas of 3-5 feet. After the front pushes through Sunday winds gradually ramp up in 2-4 hours after the frontal passage and SCA conditions look to occur Sunday after 5 pm. Seas should build to 8-9 feet offshore by early Monday morning. Winds slowly coming down Monday evening/Tuesday morning and SCA should drop off with winds diminishing and turning to the northeast. High pressure traverses the area Wednesday with onshore flow strengthening Wednesday night through Thursday noon. Showers and possibly thunderstorms developing over the coastal waters late Thursday as an upper level disturbance passes overhead. 45 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 69 43 61 40 / 10 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 67 75 47 63 43 / 10 30 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 72 53 62 51 / 10 20 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...31/47
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