Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early night.
A River Flood Warning issued for the New Caney, TX area.
Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.
Thoughts: The day was mostly cloudy.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 010312 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 912 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018 .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight/Tomorrow]... Strong LLJ over the region should continue to feed moisture northward into a low level convergence zone located over north Texas and then SE Oklahoma into Arkansas. This means temperatures will not drop much overnight. The convergence zone has been a focus for training showers and thunderstorms over north Texas withe the polar jet parallel to the convergence. Surface analysis shows a cold front over the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. Convection over north Texas may develop a strong cold pool with its boundary surging south. This boundary should reach SE Texas later tonight into Thursday morning. The true cold front should reach the area later in the morning. Overall forecast looks on track but made some minor adjustments in the near term to account for better timing of the fronts and possible showers/storms. Overall think convection will be weak due to capping but enough of a line to justify higher rain chances north of Houston. Rainfall from any of the showers or storms should be rather meager, maybe a tenth of an inch. Activity should move through the area fairly quickly with skies clearing in the afternoon. Overpeck && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 540 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2018/... .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Oncoming front looks a bit disjointed, making timing difficult with tonight`s front. Pressure gradient tonight may slacken a bit as the front draws near, which would allow for ceilings to lower (perhaps some brief fog at GLS) and perhaps some isolated showers towards the coast earlier than by the front alone, and so the TAFs try to account for this possibility, which has support from some short range models. There may be some brief improvement as mixing increases just before frontal showers and storms arrive, but largely chose to omit this potential as it should be brief to non- existent. As the frontal precip moves through, it may take us down to the edge of IFR for ceilings. However, this line will be outpacing the front itself and likely weakening. Still have prevailing TSRA at CLL and UTS, but even this may be a bit aggressive. Go with VCSH at all the other sites as the line should be falling apart. Ceilings look to only slowly improve into the morning as the front lags a bit behind, but should eventually make it to VFR my mid- morning north to mid- day at the coast. Clearing will take a bit more beyond that thanks to the front`s tardiness. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 61 71 49 72 48 / 70 10 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 65 75 51 73 50 / 30 30 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 68 76 58 68 58 / 20 30 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...Overpeck AVIATION...Luchs
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