Friday, March 9, 2018

Mar. 7 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The day was mostly clear except for some passing alto stratus clouds.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080325
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
925 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Only adjustment made on the evening update was to add a
little extra cloud cover for the cirrus streaming into
the area from the northwest. Mid-evening temperatures
range from mainly the mid 40s well inland to around 60
at the coast. If cloud cover does not get out of control,
we should have no problem reaching our expected morning
lows of the mid to upper 30s inland and the upper 40s to
around 50 at the coast (record lows/year set are 25/1932
for College Station, 27/1971 for the City of Houston,
31/1996 for Houston Hobby and 33/1996 for Galveston.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR. Northerly breezes to weaken tonight and wake up from the
east veering southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon. Cirrus decks
will likely transition to mid-level ceilings by the PM hours. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...
No significant changes were made to the forecast package this
afternoon. Mclear skies, dry atmos and light winds should allow
for a fairly quick temp drop this evening and good radiational
cooling overnight.

Water vapor imagery shows a large area of mid/high Pacific
moisture rounding the top of the H5 ridge over the southwestern
states. This cloudiness should eventually take a more
southeastward track and overhead on Thurs. May need to make some
downward adjustments to high temps tomorrow should it arrive
earlier and/or thicker than currently progged.

Slightly deeper llvl moisture returns Friday as surface high
pressure drifts further east of the area. With a lack of a
distinct focusing mechanism we`d generally expect some sct waa
type shra and embedded tstms. Guidance does show an approaching
jet streak Friday night into Saturday, so we may see more
support/coverage during that time period across the southern parts
of the area and offshore.

Later in the day Saturday llvl winds veer more to the sw and
capping between 850-700mb starts setting up in the fcst soundings.
This should be a limiting factor for any significant precip along
the next cold front that`ll be pushing through the area late
Saturday night & Sunday morning.

Both GFS and ECMWF show a jet streak moving across south Tx
sometime between Mon afternoon and Tue afternoon possibly bringing
another slight chance of precip...although fcst soundings across
inland locations point more toward virga considering the dry sub
cloud layer.

Another reinforcing front (dry) is expected ~Tue which should keep
temps slightly below normal going into the second half of Spring Break
week followed by a gradual warm-up going into the weekend.  47

MARINE...
High pressure should settle over the northern Gulf coast tonight
into Thursday and this is expected to diminish winds. Winds will
become NE tonight as the high moves east and will veer to the east
on Thursday as the high moves further east. Southeast winds will
develop late Thursday night as low pressure develops in the lee of
the Rockies. A moderate to strong onshore flow is expected Friday
night into Saturday which may require caution flags. The low moves
NE on Saturday night and winds will briefly veer to the southwest. A
cold front will cross the coastal waters Sunday morning. Strong
offshore winds are expected to develop in the wake of the front and
caution/advisory is likely Sunday night into Monday.

Tides were about 0.5-1.0 feet below MLLW in upper portions of the
Houston Ship channel and Galveston bay. Tides have since recovered
going into high tide and with winds decreasing. Tides get a boost
with the strong onshore flow Thursday night into Friday. Tide levels
may rise a foot or so above normal but should only rise to 2.5 to
2.7 feet. We may need to watch for low water conditions behind the
front on Sunday into Monday. 39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      41  67  50  70  61 /   0   0   0  20  20
Houston (IAH)              41  67  50  72  62 /   0   0  10  20  30
Galveston (GLS)            49  65  59  72  66 /   0   0   0  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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