Friday, March 9, 2018

Mar. 8 18

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.
West Houston, TX, during the late evening.


Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.


Thoughts: The day was mostly cloudy and dry. 


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 090307
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
907 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Another quiet and cool weather night is in store for
Southeast Texas. Just making a couple insignificant
changes to the grids on the evening update.  42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR. Cirrus continues through the overnight hours with a weakening
southeasterly wind. A tighter statewide onshore pressure gradient
will strengthen Friday`s southerly winds with lower level
saturation at around 4-5 k ft thickening and lowering decks to low
end VFR by the early evening hours. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST Thu Mar 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...
We are aware of the smoky conditions across parts of the metro
area and southeast Texas today, but have several conflicting
reports as to where its is actually coming from. Satellite and
radar are not showing any signals either as they can sometimes
help in these situations. Based on steering flow, it`s likely from
somewhere east of the area. Good news is that wind directions
will continue veering to the southeast tonight as high pressure
moves away, so theoretically we should see some improvement IF
that was indeed the origin.

Otherwise, look for a benign wx night with just a slow increase in
llvl moisture returning from the Gulf. We may start seeing some
weak isolated waa shra pop up on radar throughout the day Friday.
Speed max embedded in the upper jet will be making its way around
the ridge and into into south cntl Tx Fri evening and night
putting us in the LFQ for a time period. There have been some
run-to-run model consistency issues as to whether we`ll see an
enhancement of shra/tstm coverage thru the night into Sat morning.
This set of model runs is drier than the past several. Texas Tech
WRF isn`t excited whatsoever. We lowered POPs a touch, but fcst
confidence isn`t there to make drastic changes. Though there`s
some instability, don`t have a big concern for strong/severe tstms
attm.

As llvl flow veers to the sw thru the day Sat, moisture availability
will diminish and capping comes into play ahead of the cold front
that`ll be pushing thru late Sat night and Sunday morning. That
should limit precip chances ahead of the front. Main issue will be
strong winds in the wake of the front with 40kt 925mb winds noted.
ECMWF is showing a disturbance riding down the nw flow aloft during
the day Sunday. Other than virga, one would think that column
moisture would be too low for much in the way of precip, but POPs
will definitely need to be upped if the ECMWF soln holds in future
runs.

Low and mid level ridging will prevail into midweek keeping dry,
but slightly below normal conditions in place. Onshore flow
resumes during the second half of spring break along with a
gradual warming trend.  47

MARINE...
Winds are continuing to slowly weaken/shift to the SE this
afternoon as high pressure moves further to the east. Will let
the SCEC across the coastal waters expire as planned. Otherwise,
generally light/moderate onshore winds will prevail through Fri.
The approach/deepening of the next system over the southern Plains
will help to tighten the gradient by Sat. This should result in
increased wind speed Sat with Caution/Advisory flags possible at
that time. The next cold front is forecast to move into the
coastal waters early Sun. Strong northerly winds to develop in the
wake of the front and Caution/Advisory flags are likely once
again Sun night/Mon. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      49  72  63  81  56 /   0  20  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)              49  73  63  82  61 /   0  20  40  40   0
Galveston (GLS)            58  73  67  76  64 /   0  20  40  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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