Thursday, March 22, 2018

Mar. 17 18

Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, driving towards my house, during the early afternoon.
Houston, TX radar, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.


Locations: Northwest Houston, TX.


Thoughts: Light rain looked to be scattered across the Houston, TX area, during the afternoon, evening, night, and maybe morning. I don't remember seeing any rain, where I was in northwest Houston, TX, during the day. The day was warm, sunny, and mostly cloudy.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 180456
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


.AVIATION...
S/W departing the northern areas with weak PVA along the north
side of the speed max still helping with weak lift and elevated
SHRA/isolated TSRA over the northern areas. Expect these to
continue to weaken and have not jumped on the HRRR solutions for
these to intensify and dive southeastward. MVFR/IFR deck should
continue to expand northward tonight with a delay compared to last
night. Sea fog gradually getting thicker near the coast. GLS
should be down to LIFR by 08z if not sooner.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow with another s/w that
rides in from the west but confidence is still fairly low with a
fairly stout cap that blankets the area in the morning but with
temperatures reaching the 82-83 degree range the cap should have
nearly eroded (19-21z). After the showers depart in the early
evening will be looking for the Pacific cold front/pre-frontal
trough to swing winds to the west around 08z at IAH with the
potential for SHRA again.

45

.MARINE...
Marine dense fog advisory out shortly.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Did do an update to the grids earlier this evening...to account
for the convection developing out west that was headed this way.
Activity to the north did hold together and is currently moving
across our northern CWA. The storms out west, however, were not
quite as potent. But at this time, trends are indicating things
are winding down (with the loss of heating). Will likely be mak-
ing just a few more tweaks to clean up the wording. The rest of
the the forecast looks good. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 351 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018/

Another warm and humid day across SE TX. GLS is within one degree
of tying a record high temperature. Clouds have been slow to
clear this afternoon but with another hour or so of heating, it`ll
still be possible to generate some showers. An upper level
disturbance over Central Texas will move east tonight and this
feature will generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over
mainly the northern third of SE TX. The best chance for storms
over the north will be between 9 PM and 2 AM. SPC has brought
slight risk for severe storms into the CWA. The 12z ARW and NMM
are more aggressive with precipitation working its way into the
northern zones tonight. Still have some significant concerns that
strong capping will limit the convective potential. Areas to the
south, including the city of Houston, feel capping will hold and
only weak showers will be possible tonight. Water temps have
warmed a few degrees since yesterday but SREF ensembles still show
some potential for sea fog tonight and will continue to mention
fog near the coast and over the coastal waters.

On Sunday, capping should limit precipitation to just some weak
showers in the morning but fcst soundings show the cap weakening
between 18-21z, convective temps in the lower 80s and PW values
increasing to 1.55 inches. SE TX will also lie in weak RRQ by
afternoon and this feature might provide enough lift to generate
some afternoon shra/tsra. A dry line or surface trough will move
though SE TX on Sunday night and skies will begin to clear from
west to east. The drier air will allow for some cooler temps over
the western half of the CWA.

On Monday, drier air in place will allow for a large diurnal
range in temperatures and high temps will warm into the lower
80`s. RH values will plummet with the warm daytime temps and dew
points in the 30`s. Min RH values will probably fall into the
teens and W-NW winds will be around 15 mph with higher gusts.
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday and a
Red Flag Warning may be required. Elevated fire weather conditions
will remain possible on Tuesday as a secondary surge of cooler
air filters into the region. Winds look a bit higher on Tuesday
but temperatures look cooler and RH looks a bit higher. High
pressure will build into Texas on Tuesday and settle over SE TX by
Wednesday morning. This feature will bring clear skies, low
humidity and seasonal temperatures. The high moves east on
Wednesday and onshore winds will return by Wednesday night with
onshore winds continuing into next weekend. A subtle warm up will
begin on Thursday with temps again in the lower 80s by next
weekend as weak upper level ridging develops over northern Mexico.
43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      67  84  60  80  49 /  50  30  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)              68  84  68  83  53 /  20  30  30  10   0
Galveston (GLS)            69  78  69  80  58 /  10  20  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...45

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-182015-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
314 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight
north of a Bryan to Livingston line as a weak upper level
disturbance moves across the state. The primary severe weather
hazard will be large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dry air will move into Southeast Texas on Monday and humidity
levels will fall below 20 percent. Elevated fire weather
conditions will be possible as west winds increase to 15 to 20
mph.

Elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be be possible late this evening.

$$

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