Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-morning.
Downtown Houston, TX, during the late morning.
Houston, TX radar, during the early afternoon.
Downtown Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the mid-afternoon.
Cypress, TX, during the late evening.
Houston, TX radar, during the early night.
Houston, TX radar, during the late night.
Locations: Northwest, west, southwest, central southwest, southeast, and downtown Houston, TX, and Cypress, TX.
Thoughts: There were alot of scattered light to moderate showers with some bands of moderately heavy to heavy showers and thunderstorms, in the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. A heavy shower, or maybe thunderstorm passed over where I was in downtown Houston, TX, during the early afternoon. I also saw some light rain during the morning, evening, and maybe night. The day was warm, a little wet, and mostly cloudy. I think Galveston, TX broke a record high.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 3940 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 060302 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 902 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Cold front and associated line of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to work its way across Southeast Texas this evening with the greatest thunderstorm concentration off to our east in Louisiana where the airmass is much more unstable. Mid evening radar is showing additional storm development behind the front, so far mainly in/around the CLL area. For the update this evening, have adjusted rain chances for the overnight hours with lower values inland and higher numbers near the coast and offshore. The rest of the forecast was left mostly untouched. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ AVIATION... I did not make any significant changes to this evenings TAF Forecast still looks on track for cooler temperatures and lower dew points behind the front.package. The HRRR model has a pretty good handle on the timing of the cold front that will move across the Houston metro area between 00-03Z and off the coast between 04-05Z. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the front this afternoon are decreasing in intensity as the front moves in to a region dominated by a fairly strong a convective cap. Winds will become Northerly at 10 to 20 knots behind the front before leveling off at 8-10 knots overnight. The front may slow as is moves off the coast, increasing overnight rain chances at KLBX and KGLS. Tuesday should be VFR at all terminals with mostly high clouds and light north winds. 44 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/ NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Surface analysis at 21Z has cold front from Caldwell/College Station to Crockett with a line of showers and thunderstorms along it. Storms are pulse type with a few cells peaking in intensity and then weakening. A new updraft forms and does the same thing. This may support a pulse strong storm with a downburst and small hail, but given the trends, that possibility is rather low. Storms are really struggling against the cap. AMDAR soundings from airplanes early this afternoon show that cap closer to 750-700mb rather than 800mb so there is some lift from the front which is helping to force convection. Still there is plenty of dry air entrainment which is helping to derail convective growth. With convection weakening along the front, think that this may be the trend for the afternoon through the overnight. Front is undercutting most of the convection making it more elevated, but it will be tough for a strong/severe storm to occur behind the front with little support from upper level dynamics. Front still could trigger storms along the coast with higher moisture but overall confidence is low for severe weather and heavy rainfall. SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Thursday]... Tuesday into Wednesday the upper level pattern becomes amplified with a deep trough forming over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. NW flow aloft should keep conditions dry through the middle of the week with surface high pressure building through the plains. This should allow for below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with a warm up expected for the weekend. Overall rather little in the way of weather impacts for mid week. LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]... Return flow from the Gulf does increase Friday as high pressure moves east. Moisture return may be a bit too aggressive with the GFS but still worth a mention of a few showers starting on Friday. Overall coverage looks to be isolated at best. A short wave trough in the flow does move across TX and increase rain chances going into Saturday mainly east of the area into Louisiana. Another strong trough develops over the Midwest Saturday into Sunday which helps push a cold front through Saturday night into Sunday. Dry conditions should continue into early next week with temperatures near or slightly below normal. Depending upon your point of view, this may or may not be a good way to start spring break for most people. Overpeck MARINE... Cold front appears to be on track to move off the coast this eve- ning. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely accompany this line as it moves into the Gulf waters with moderate/strong north winds developing in its wake. Small hail/gusty winds may also be possible with the storms. Small Craft Caution or Advisories will likely be needed starting overnight through Tue morning. Another round of flags will be possible Tues night with the passage of a secondary cold front which could bring colder air across the mar- ine waters. THis offshore flow is expected to persist thru Thurs before gradually veering onshore Fri. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 47 71 41 63 38 / 30 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 73 45 66 41 / 30 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 59 70 54 65 50 / 50 30 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 704 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-061315- Brazoria-Chambers-Fort Bend-Galveston-Harris-Jackson-Liberty- Matagorda-Wharton- 704 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A cold front is likely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon and evening. Strong thunderstorms will be possible and could bring small hail and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall will be possible as storms develop and move northeast along and ahead of the cold front. Rainfall totals 0.5" to 1" are likely with isolated totals of 3 to 4 inches. The storms should be ending after midnight pushing out into the Gulf. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday with breezy conditions possible near the immediate coast Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
No comments:
Post a Comment