Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
West Houston, TX, during the late evening.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: The day was warm, dry, and mostly cloudy.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 030511 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1111 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018 .AVIATION... Not much change in the forecast as skies have largely cleared across the area. There may be some light ground fog as a couple non-TAF sites are down to 7 miles. VFR is still expected through the bulk of the forecast period, with light and variable winds increasing to about 10 knots for the afternoon out of the east with mid-level clouds developing. There is a low chance of showers, but not high enough to warrant including in the TAF. Still looking for ceilings to fall from southwest to northeast towards the end of the period. Keeping CXO northward in VFR as the fall in ceilings is still holding off beyond 06Z in the consensus of short range models. For the other sites, go down into MVFR in the late afternoon (LBX) to evening (metro sites and GLS). Luchs && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ UPDATE... No major updates this evening. Adjusted the T/Td/Sky field grids to better match up with ongoing evening trends. Mild and dry overnight conditions, temperatures falling into the far interior lower 50s to lower 60s along coastline, under clear skies and weak east breezes. Mainly sky clear with increasing cloudiness from the southwest to northeast through the day tomorrow. Maybe some very light precipitation out across the far west initiated by a weak shortwave disturbance riding atop a regional upper ridge axis. Partly becoming mostly cloudy Saturday will warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s under returning warm air advection as winds veer to onshore by early tomorrow evening. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ AVIATION... Satellite shows diminishing low fair weather cumulus in most of the area, along with a band of broken high clouds (170 or so to 250) working their way southeastward while diminishing over the next few hours. Beyond that, pretty quiet VFR conditions expected tonight with light winds becoming easterly towards morning. Also towards morning look for the development of a mid-level cloud deck that should gradually lower from southwest to northeast late in the day. Looks to be late enough that I only take LBX and GLS to MVFR before the end of the forecast period, but should expand to other metro sites in future forecast cycles. Can`t rule out a shower or two entirely tomorrow, but potential is low enough that it`s not worth mentioning in the TAF at this time. Luchs PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ DISCUSSION... Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are found across Southeast Texas this afternoon as surface high pressure ridges into our area from the north. Temperatures so far have warmed into the low to mid 70s, and some upper 70s are probably going to be reached over the next couple of hours. Winds have begun to become a little more easterly, and southeast directions can be expected area wide by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning in response to deepening lee of the Rockies low pressure. Low rain chances come back into the forecast on Saturday out west as moisture levels begin to rise, then begin an increasing trend almost area wide on Saturday night and Sunday. Our next best chance of rain still looks to be setting up on Monday and possibly into Monday evening as deep moisture levels pool ahead of a cold front. The front looks to move through the area mainly Monday night through Tuesday morning. A drier airmass will filter in behind the front and will bring an end to this rain event. A west to northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure sets up behind this system and helps to bring drier weather and cooler temperatures to the area until the end of the week. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s will be common Wednesday through Friday, and some of our northern locations are expected to dip into the 30s on Thursday. 42 MARINE... High pressure over the western Great Lakes will move east tonight. Northeast winds will become east later tonight and remain out of the east on Saturday. Seas are still between 7-8 feet at Bouy 019 this afternoon and will maintain the SCA through 03z for the offshore waters but seas will gradually subside below SCA criteria later this evening. Will maintain SCEC for the near shore waters tonight and this may need to be extended on Saturday. As the surface high drifts further east on Sunday, SE winds will develop and S-SE winds will persist through early Tuesday. A cold front will approach the coast early Tuesday and there are still some timing differences between the GFS and the ECMWF with the GFS faster. The timing differences are not as extreme as the past couple of days but will still lean toward the slower ECMWF/Can solutions. A moderate to occasionally strong NE flow is expected in the wake of the front with a NE wind expected to persist through Thursday. A persistent east to southeast fetch this weekend may result in tide levels peaking near 2.5 feet above MLLW at times of high tide, but tidal issues are not expected given these levels and forecast wave periods in the 5-7 second range. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CST Fri Mar 2 2018/ AVIATION... MVFR ceilings affecting KGLS and KLBX should mix out this afternoon and VFR conditions are expected to prevail areawide this afternoon. A brisk NE wind will become east with time and winds are expected to decouple overnight except along the coast. Low level moisture begins to return on Saturday and might get some patchy ground fog early Saturday but probabilities look too low to mention at this time. VFR/MVFR ceilings possible between 15-18z but more likely after 18z Saturday. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 51 71 59 74 / 0 0 10 30 40 Houston (IAH) 73 53 72 61 75 / 0 0 10 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 74 62 70 66 73 / 0 10 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Saturday afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 3 AM CST Saturday through Saturday afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...31 Aviation/Marine...25
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