Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 012315 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 615 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will remain in place at all terminals throughout the duration of the TAF period. Winds should relax overnight at inland sites, becoming light and variable over the next few hours. Tomorrow, expect a gradual wind shift to the southeast as surface high pressure drifts off to the east. With moisture increasing as a result, cloud cover will also begin to build by tomorrow afternoon. However, any developing decks should be FEW to SCT and be confined to the upper levels. Cady && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 1 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]... A beautiful rest of the day expected today across SE TX thanks to high pressure settling across TX, resulting in sunny skies and mid afternoon temperatures mostly in the upper 60s. For tonight, expect clear skies with light NE winds and low temperatures once again reaching the upper 30s to low 40s along locations north of I-10 (coldest locations likely over areas east of I-45 and north of I-10), the low to mid 40s along locations south of I-10, and the 50s along the coastal areas. Friday, surface high pressure along with ridging in the mid to upper levels will dominate the overall local weather pattern, and thus, no rain activity is expected. High clouds could possibly begin to develop over portions of the CWA during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings also show a slight decrease in temperatures for Friday afternoon. For this reason, have kept the high temperature values similar to today`s. However, if we manage to get sunny skies lingering well past mid afternoon in addition to winds turning more SE, then temperatures could end up a degree or two higher than our current forecast trend. Friday night, a more established light SE wind flow is expected as the surface high pressure continues eastward. Cloud coverage will continue to build as a plume of low level moisture from the west makes its way across SE TX and low temperature values will rise a few degrees. 24 LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... Still strong consensus in the guidance that the dominant pattern deep into next week will be high pressure - a surface high over the SE US/NE Gulf, along with ridging aloft. So, it`s not much of a surprise that the forecast is not much changed, and we`ll be looking for a warming trend into the new week. One thing that has come more into focus is greater agreement on seeing a more robust shortwave trough pass above the region this weekend. This gives me greater confidence in having mentionable PoPs from later on Saturday through Sunday and even into Monday. Our next shot for some rain will be as a low pressure center and accompanying upper trough pass far, far to our north in the middle to latter part of next week. There is some mixed opinion as to whether the trailing cold front will actually reach Southeast Texas, but even then, we could see enough moisture and lift to merit a mention of a slight chance for showers late next week as well. While not nearly as interesting as convective potential, the thing that is more likely to be impactful for us will be temperature trends, especially in the back half of next week. While the ridging does not look exceptionally strong in deterministic model runs, the high end of the NBM distribution continues to run hot. As far south as Intercontinental, the 90th percentile max temps in the second half of the week are not only in the 90s, but as high as 100 degrees. Like yesterday, without a real physical cue to base a change off of in multiple deterministic models, I`m loath to try to make much deviance from post-processed model consensus. I basically roll with the NBM`s deterministic numbers or NBM plus an extra degree again today. Still...I also can`t dismiss the idea that things are being bias corrected a little too heavily and a bigger warmup is on the table. So while I don`t explicitly have any 90 degree highs in the forecast right now, I`m also not saying they`re impossible. Luchs MARINE... Conditions are slowly improving as winds are slowly diminish across the waters. Seas will be slower to subside, however, so a small craft advisory is needed on the Gulf tonight and into early Friday morning. Gradually, we`ll step down from the advisory levels to SCEC conditions, and from there to more gentle marine conditions tomorrow. More significant improvement will be seen as winds veer to be more northeasterly or easterly. However, a long fetch of those moderate winds into the weekend could cause some elevated water levels along the coast. Luchs FIRE WEATHER... Northeast winds will be gusty at times this afternoon, but will gradually diminish, particularly once the sun sets as high pressure settles over East Texas. The air mass moving into Southeast Texas is very dry and humidity values in sunny spots have already fallen below 25 percent early this afternoon across most of the area. Fortunately, fuel conditions - particularly in heavier fuels will mitigate much concern posed by weather conditions. In fine fuels where daily swings in relative humidity are more important, there may be a more noticeable response in the potential for fire growth. While RH will certainly recover well overnight, it will still stop short of our typical near-saturation recoveries. Tomorrow, dry conditions will stay in place, but winds will be more moderate and begin to shift to be more easterly, or even a bit south of easterly, signaling a change to more humid conditions for the weekend. Luchs && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 68 41 70 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 70 41 69 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 68 52 68 57 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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