Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 110434 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1134 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021 .AVIATION... For the 11/06Z TAFs, VFR inland where dewpoints are in the 30s/40s. Closer to the coast (mainly LBX) where dewpoints are still in the 60s, there has been some dense fog development, and this could persist throughout the night. Any fog that remains toward morning will burn off after sunrise. VFR areawide on Sunday with winds becoming S to SE. Could see some high clouds move into the area from the west late in the day, and expecting to see some low ceiling development (MVFR/IFR) late Sunday night through Monday morning mainly to the west of the I-45 corridor. 42 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021/ SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]... As drier air filters in following the passage of yesterday`s cold front, clouds will continue to gradually clear out leading to an absolutely gorgeous weekend for SE Texas. The low humidity will last through Sunday, so this weekend will be perfect for spending time outdoors. High temperatures today will range from the mid-to-upper 70s for our northern counties to the low 80s for our southern counties. However, this will be a dry 80 degrees which (in my opinion) is muuuuch better than a humid 80 degrees. Due to the dry air in place, low-level lapse rates have become quite steep up to 1 km (essentially the dry adiabatic lapse rate) which is leading to moderate northerly winds getting mixed down to the surface with gusts up to 20-25 knots likely through sunset. After the clouds push off of the coast this afternoon, clear skies will prevail through at least Sunday afternoon. Additionally, with the pressure gradient relaxing overnight, winds will become light and variable. For tonight, clear skies...light winds...sounds like a great setup for max radiational cooling! Overnight low temperatures will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. As surface high pressure pushes off to the east on early Sunday morning, winds will become easterly then southeasterly by the afternoon hours. Afternoon temperatures on Sunday will be a bit warmer with highs in the mid 80s. The onshore flow will gradually push moisture and cloud cover into the region from the southwest to the northeast going into Sunday night. With increasing clouds and onshore flow, temperatures on Sunday night will be borderline mild for most locations with lows in the upper 50s/low 60s. Batiste LONG TERM [Monday through Saturday]... Moisture return Mon afternoon along with the warm start to the day should make for a rather warm/muggy day to start the week. Chances for rain will be low as the airmass takes its time to sort itself, but can`t rule out an isolated shower/thunderstorm late Mon after- noon (especially for the SW CWA where moisture should be deepest). However, rain chances are expected to increase by Tues as the next (weak) cold front moves in from the north. This boundary will then act as a focus for continued (generally low-ish) rain chances over SE TX through mid week as it stalls/slowly washes out. POPs should be slightly better during the afternoons/evenings via heating and/ or the seabreeze Weds/Thur. Per these latest runs, models not that optimistic with the idea of embedded weak upper level disturbances (from the west) to enhance our rain chances during this timeframe. Of note for the latter part of this extended forecast are progs of much increased PWs (near 2") along with the arrival/passage of the next cold front. Will keep POPs capped around 20-30% for this part of the forecast at this time as we wait and see how later runs re- solve this going forward. Our warmest highs will likely be Mon and possibly Tues (depending on the front timing) with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. MaxTs for the rest of the week will range most- ly in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Low temperatures will remain on the warmer side of normal throughout, however. 41 MARINE... Moderate NE winds the rest of this afternoon/evening will be weak- ening overnight as high pressure builds into the state. As surface high pressure quickly moves off to the east, E/SE winds to develop tomorrow and likely persist for most of the upcoming week. Chances for rain are forecast to return as early as late Mon/early Tues as deeper moisture moves over the region and a weak cold front stalls and lingers in/across SE TX. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 49 84 58 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 Houston (IAH) 55 83 60 84 69 / 0 0 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 64 76 68 81 71 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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