Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 242345 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 645 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Dry air, clear sky, VFR flight conditions. Main focus of this cycle will be handling winds as they veer from northerly to more east/southeast by tomorrow night. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 309 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday Night]... After this afternoon`s very warm temperatures (including a record breaking 89 degree high so far in Galveston - see climate section below for info), the area will have a nice cooldown tonight under mostly clear to clear skies with lows ranging from mid to upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s at the coast. The surface high partly responsible for the cooldown will move off to the east tomorrow and will help to swing winds back around to the southeast and south. This onshore flow (along with very little cloud development) will help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s for most of the area. The onshore flow will persist into Sunday night, but any significant return/increase in cloud cover is expected to set up well off to our west. Sunday night`s lows are expected to be just a couple degrees warmer than tonight`s low. 42 .LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]... As the upper-level ridge over Texas begins to slide to the east, SE winds and onshore flow strengthen slightly, continuing the transport of warm and humid Gulf air across our region. Daytime temps will remain in the mid-to upper 80s through Wednesday while overnight lows will climb to the the low 70s by Tuesday night. With dewpoints reaching the 70s as well by Tuesday night, it will definitely feel soupy. On Monday, an upper-level trough over Northern California and Oregon will push southwest across The Rockies and a leeside low is expected to develop over The Central Plains. Ahead of this leeside low, a low- level jet and onshore flow will allow PWATs to climb up to 1.5-1.75 inches across our CWA. This combined with some small perturbations in the upper-level flow could lead to some showers and afternoon isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. FROPA is expected on Wednesday, but models still vary widely regarding its timing, duration, and intensity. The GFS still shows the surface front pushing through by late Thursday. However, the GFS and Canadian show an upper-level cutoff low and an elongated jet overhead which stalls the front over our area until at least Saturday. With this much uncertainty and with plenty of time for models to come to more of a consensus, went with a blended option regarding precip and kept in 10-30% PoPs through Friday. Once the front does push out, high pressure aloft will settle in. KBL .MARINE... North to northeast winds can be expected tonight in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will quickly move to the east allowing onshore winds to resume on Sunday. Winds and seas will increase going into the middle of the upcoming week in advance of the next weather system. At this time, the next cold front looks to move through the area on Thursday morning. .CLIMATE... As of 3 PM, Galveston has reached a high temperature today of 89 degrees. This breaks the old record for April 24th of 87 degrees set in 1955. This 89 degrees would also tie for their 5th warmest April day on record, with records dating back to 1875. Their record high for the entire month of April is 95 degrees set on the 27th in 2011, and their record all time high for the year is 104 degrees set on September 5th 2000. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 85 59 86 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 59 84 61 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 67 79 68 76 72 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM...KBL AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...42/KBL CLIMATE...42
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