Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
204 FXUS64 KHGX 022328 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 628 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Conditions should remain within VFR thresholds for the duration of the TAF period. Southeasterly flow continues to provide the area with increasing moisture, which should promote an increasing trend in cloud cover over the next 24 hours. That being said, forecast soundings indicate that any developing cigs should be contained to the 10-25kft range. High-resolution guidance shows the formation of scattered to isolated showers as an upper-level disturbance traverses the area tomorrow afternoon. Given the expected limited coverage of any developing precipitation, have opted for VCSH wording at inland sites tomorrow beginning around 18Z. Cady && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT Fri Apr 2 2021/ DISCUSSION... Though we`ll have a couple small things to keep an eye on, much of the week will be dominated by terms like `ridging` and `high pressure`. As a result, the main story for the weather in the week to come is the warming temperature trend, and a small hint that summer isn`t that far away. SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]... Fairly pleasant day today across Southeast Texas as high temperatures kept conditions seasonal and dry. The surface high pressure has slid to the east providing breezy southeasterly flow into the area, which will continue through the rest of the short term period and beyond. An upper level short wave will progress across Texas tomorrow bringing increasing clouds and a chance of showers. Both the NMM and ARW have a few showers moving across the I- 10 corridor Saturday afternoon, so did increase PoPs slightly between 18 and 21z for that area. Another cool night is in-store tonight will lows in the mid to upper 40s across most of the area and low to mid 50s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. Cloud cover tomorrow will keep temperatures on the cool side through the day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. This cloud cover will then prevent radiational cooling tomorrow night, so low temperatures will only get down into the 50s inland and low 60s along the immediate coast. LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... Sunday! Sunday! Sunday! Weak midlevel shortwave trough rolling through Texas this Sunday! Unfortunately, it`s unlikely this will produce any weather in our area nearly as exciting as a monster truck rally. Precipitable water values are generally progged to be around an inch (maybe as high as 1.25 inches), and with relatively dry low levels until later on Sunday, we might get to see a little virga until things can moisten up some down low. Anyway, to make a long story short, we could see some light, sporadic showers from this disturbance until it moves out of the area on Monday. And really, from there, we`re left to see ridging build in over the region, setting us up for a good warmup deep into next week. While the NBM distributions have backed off ever so slightly on the warmest case scenarios, I feel a little more confident in shading on the warm side of the deterministic NBM values to get closer to the NBM median highs. On Thursday, I even have some localized spots of 90 degree highs, though these occur in rural areas and are unlikely to ever be verified if they stay in the forecast. Now, with all that said, upper troughs in the polar jet stream will blunt the strength of our ridging, so while I feel pretty good about a warmup, I`m not too seriously concerned about seeing those very unseasonably hot high end numbers. Indeed, the Euro has now finally come around a little bit to the GFS scenario of getting a cold front all the way into Southeast Texas next weekend. Of course, while the GFS slams a decent front solidly through the area, the Euro is much more deliberate and weak with it, so we still have enormous differences in timing and strength on this. Fortunately, it is at the very end or beyond the end of this forecast period, so we`ve still got plenty of time to suss out the details. AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will continue through the period. Breezy southeasterly winds will persist through this evening before becoming light and variable overnight tonight, then becoming breezy again early Saturday. High clouds will continue through the rest of today, then a few to scattered deck at around 3000 feet will develop overnight tonight. CIGs should remain in VFR through the package with 5000ft decks developing by Saturday afternoon. MARINE... SCECs are very near their planned end time this afternoon, and all but a few obs have slipped to 15 knots or lower. However, winds and seas will hover very near the caution threshold through the weekend. A passing upper low will bring slight chances of showers on and off through the weekend as well, with the best chances for showers expected on Sunday. Otherwise, expect dry weather with generally onshore winds. Those onshore winds are expected to remain deep into next week, though they are expected to become more southerly and strengthen modestly later in the week ahead of an approaching cold front. While there is a slowly growing consensus that the front will be just enough to reach the area at the end of next week, there is still significant uncertainty in the precise details. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 47 68 52 74 56 / 0 30 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 47 69 54 75 58 / 0 30 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 58 68 62 73 65 / 0 20 10 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
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