Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 090042 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 742 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 .DISCUSSION... Updated to add a chc of thunderstorms for NW areas for the next 3 hours as a severe thunderstorm in central Texas moves southeast toward the area. With the loss of heating, the storm could weaken as it approaches Brazos/Madison counties between 830 and 930 PM. Wood && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021/ AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions will continue through the evening across the area. Patchy fog and low ceilings will again becoming an issue tonight. CIGs will be between 1500-2500ft with occasional drops to 700ft starting at midnight and lasting through the midmorning. Fog tonight will much more isolated than last night due to the warmer ground (temperatures this afternoon got into the upper 80s which may have allowed the ground to absorb enough heat to keep the near surface air from saturating enough for fog development). Did keep the mention fog in at CXO, LBX, SGR, and GLS as the potential is still there. CIGs will gradually improve through the morning with VFR conditions expected HOU northward. LBX and GLS may deal with 2500-3500 CIGs through the entire day. Cloud cover returns tomorrow evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Fowler PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 333 PM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021/... SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]... Onshore winds are returning to the area today, and this is helping to boost temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Could see values go up a couple more degrees before the area starts to cool down this evening. There will not be much of a cool down overnight as the south winds actually begin to strengthen in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Deepening moisture with this flow will result in increasing cloud cover this evening and overnight, and temperatures should only fall into the mid to upper 60s. We are seeing some models that have showers/thunderstorms edging close to Houston County overnight, and we`ll keep an eye on how this all unfolds. Forecast confidence/uncertainty increases significantly Friday through Friday night regarding area rain chances and the potential for strong/severe thunderstorm development. We are seeing a variety of different model solutions, some of which are showing possible late afternoon, evening and overnight activity moving across the area and some of which are showing little to no development at all. If the cap breaks, the wetter and more active solutions could pan out with the potential for strong/severe storms per SPC`s Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook. If the cap holds, the little or no development solutions will win. For now, will continue to keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast with the higher numbers Friday evening through Friday night. A lot of uncertainty exists in the potential, timing and location of the possible storms, and it is recommended people pay close attention to the forecast/ discussions/radar on Friday and Friday night to see how this all unfolds. 42 LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]... Will continue to carry some low POPs in for Sat morning as the main cold front finally moves across the FA (mainly E/SE locations). High pressure building in behind the boundary will clear skies and bring a cooler/drier air mass into the region by the afternoon. And given that this rather progressive pattern of late will be continuing, we will see this surface high pressure move out quickly Sat night with light E/SE winds returning by Sun. High temperatures on Sat will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s...then warming into the lower/mid 80s on Sun. Lows Sat night are forecast to range from around 50 for the far northern counties to the upper 50s/low 60s at the coast. Per extended global models, next week looks to be a somewhat unsett- led one. A persistent E/SE at the lower levels along with a stalled boundary (warm front?) lingering over the area and a series of weak upper level shortwaves moving in from the west will keep at least a low chance of POPs in for Mon through Thur. Progged PWs from 1.5 to 1.7" do seem to support this possible activity for much of the CWA. (PWs even approaching 1.8-2" over the Gulf waters!) These increased rain chances/clouds should help to keep high temperatures in the up- per 70s and lower 80s for this timeframe...with lows slightly above normals in the mid to upper 60s. 41 MARINE... South winds will return to the area today and tonight and then strengthen on Friday and Friday night. Caution or advisory flags might be needed for the strengthening winds and associated building seas. The onshore flow along with a potential for fog will persist until a cold front pushes through late Friday night or early Saturday morning. There could be some showers and thunderstorms too before or with the passage of the front. A mainly easterly flow can be expected for the first half of next week. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 66 89 61 79 51 / 30 20 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 86 67 81 57 / 10 10 30 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 68 78 69 81 65 / 10 10 30 20 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...33
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