Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 232355 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 655 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Initial round of severe weather is through, leaving numerous showers and a handful of storms in its wake. Activity should lull late this evening, but severe storms along the I-35 corridor near San Antonio may try to push in overnight. Considerable uncertainty exists whether these storms will persist to impact our TAF areas, so stick with VCSH/VCTS for now, and will revisit with amendments and/or the 06Z cycle as needed. Beyond that, once cold front is through, look for clearing sky and gusty offshore winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 319 PM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Remainder of This Afternoon Through Saturday Night]... Conditions are increasingly favorable for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the remaining afternoon through early evening hours, and SPC has parts of our area (mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor) under a Tornado Watch 9 PM. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are all possible if storms do go severe in and around the Watch area, and maybe especially focusing in and around SPC`s Day One Severe Weather Outlook enhanced risk area (mainly Houston, Trinity and Polk counties) where greatest divergence aloft looks to possibly set up. Most recent HRRR and WoFS guidance is pointing toward areas to the north of the Houston area near/along surface boundaries as it moves northward. In addition to the severe risk, parts of SE TX (again, mainly north of I-10 and especially around and to the north of the Conroe area) are at risk for locally heavy rainfall where training storms could dump a quick 2 to 3 inches (locally higher amounts possible). Bottom line for those in and around the Houston area is to keep a close eye on how everything unfolds over the next couple of hours to make sure the higher risk stays to the north. In case it edges southward, make sure you are prepared for the storms and can make it safely through them. Once everything moves off to our east this evening, there could be some lingering showers and maybe some fog across the area before the cold front moves on through during the day on Saturday and helps to clear everything out. The rest of Saturday and on through Saturday night look mostly clear and quiet. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast. Saturday will be on the warm side with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the area. It will finally cool back down Saturday night when we have lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and in the low to mid 60s at the coast. 42 .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]... A surface high pressure and upper-level ridge will settle in across Texas on Sunday. Onshore flow will resume, helping to increase cloud cover and moisture across SE Texas through mid-week next week. Daytime highs will be in the mid-80s Sunday through Tuesday. Increased cloud cover overnight as well as warm and humid onshore flow will slowly drive overnight lows into the low 70s by Tuesday night. Our next chance of rain returns Tuesday through Thursday next week as a leeside low will strengthen across The Central Plains late Tuesday and invigorate a surface front that will push through Texas on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, a decent low-level jet will help advect Gulf moisture across SE Texas, driving up temperatures and moisture. PWATs will climb to 1.5-1.9". Spotty showers are possible on Tuesday ahead of the FROPA on Wednesday. Global models depict this front pushing reaching our CWA on Wednesday and pushing offshore and out of our CWA by Thursday. Some uncertainty still remains in its duration with the GFS pushing this front out faster than most other models. Behind the front, high pressure builds back in again. KBL .MARINE... Winds and seas will be elevated through tonight as a storm system passes across the region. Will carry caution flags in the bads and advisories off the coast. A weak cold front will move into the waters on Saturday and will bring a brief period of offshore winds. High pressure will quickly move to the east allowing onshore winds to resume on Sunday. Winds and seas will increase going into the middle of next week in advance of the next weather system and will likely require caution and/or advisories. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 81 55 86 60 / 50 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 84 59 84 62 / 60 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 82 67 77 69 / 40 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 AM CDT Saturday through Saturday morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM...KBL AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...42
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