Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 162357 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 657 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... We`re starting to see some intensification of storms along the pre-frontal boundary with an occasional lightning strike noted with the activity. Will keep the mention of TSRA/VCTS at sites from IAH south to the coast. Expecting only SHRA with the cold front itself which is only lagging behind the other line by an hour or so. Extrapolated timing has this boundary at/along the coast just before midnight...with rain chances ending with its passage. However, will keep a mix of MVFR to LIFR in place for most of SE TX overnight even with N winds developing/strenght- ening. With the generally zonal upper flow remaining in place, BKN/OVC overrunning clouds are progged to prevail through much tomorrow...with rain chances likely returning as embedded weak disturbances move across as well. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT Fri Apr 16 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]... Cold front and associated band of shra & embedded tstms will be making its way into the northern parts of southeast Tx in the next hour or two. Though not very likely, any isolated stronger cells that manage to develop will probably be situated east of a College Station-Liberty line between now and early evening. Beyond that, better lift & moisture works its way further east. As the front approaches the I-10 corridor and the coast, precip should evolve to mainly just thin band of shra right along the wind shift. Cooler and breezy conditions overnight with a break in the precip post-fropa. On Saturday...cloudy, breezy and cool conditions will prevail. Model guidance is still supporting some disturbances embedded in the wsw flow aloft moving up the coast from south Tx during the day. Areas of light precip will develop to the sw and move across the southern 2/3 - 1/2 of the region during the late morning through evening hours. Highest rain chances & coverage should be situated south of the H85 front (I-10 and offshore). Rain should taper off toward mid evening Saturday. Some locations may see some partial clearing, but still expect some mid/high cloud cover streaming overhead in the flow aloft. 47 LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday) A return to cooler than average temperatures is expected on Sunday. Northerly light winds and low humidity will lead to a pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. These forecast highs will be around 10 degrees below average for this time of year. The extended period features dry and cooler conditions through at least mid-week. This is thanks to a surface ridge building in over the southern Plains and 850 mb temperatures in the 5 to 10 C range. Zonal flow aloft brings a shortwave trough over southwest TX on Monday, while a northern trough over the MS Valley drags a surface front over the region Monday night into Tuesday. Low to mid-level moisture is limited with PWATS around 1.0 inch or lower. Therefore, this frontal boundary is not expected to bring precipitation. The pattern is expected to become more favorable for showers and thunderstorms after Thursday. Upper-level low moves across the desert southwest, then into the southern Plains Thursday into the weekend. Southerly flow develops at the surface, surging warmer and more humid air across the region into the weekend. While deterministic models differ a bit in terms of timing and strength of this trough; overall forecast indicates unsettled conditions continuing into the upcoming weekend. 05 MARINE... Early this morning, moderate east winds produced gusty conditions around Galveston Bay and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 nm. Winds are beginning to veer to the southeast this afternoon, resulting in a decrease in gusts through the evening. Will keep caution flags for all our nearshore waters and bays through this evening as gusts from 15- 20 knots may persist. The main marine concern is anticipated later tonight with the arrival of a cold front. The FROPA will reach the coastal waters after midnight, bringing a chance for showers ahead and along the boundary. Moderate to strong offshore winds are likely behind the front and will persist through Sunday. Winds may reach Gale criteria at times, mainly offshore. Elevated seas from 4 to 7 ft are also expected in the wake of the front. That said, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the bays and all Gulf waters from late tonight into Saturday night. Showers will persist through Saturday as another disturbance moves along the coast throughout the day. Light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow begins to develop on Monday as the high pressure builds in over TX. This pattern will continue through at least, Thursday. Next chance for precipitation returns Thursday into the weekend. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 63 47 68 47 / 40 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 59 65 51 69 52 / 60 50 30 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 64 67 58 70 62 / 40 40 50 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands... Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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