Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
221 FXUS64 KHGX 032338 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 638 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Conditions are expected to remain within VFR thresholds through the duration of the TAF period as today`s isolated shower activity dissipates. Latest satellite imagery indicates a BKN to OVC deck at around 10 kft, which should expand in coverage heading into the evening similar to last night. With winds remaining out of the east/southeast and moisture levels on the rise, scattered shower activity is expected to unfold tomorrow much like it did today as another upper shortwave pushes into the area. As a result, have continued with VCSH wording at all sites given the expected scattered coverage of precipitation. Cady && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021/ SHORT TERM [Through Sunday Afternoon]... High based precip on a weakening trend over the Metro area and southern half of the region. As the shortwave moves out to the ESE late this afternoon precip should wake and skies should transition from overcast to partly cloudy over much of the area by late evening. A very pleasant evening on tap. Overnight lows should dip down into the lower to mid 50s inland and hover around 60 on the coast. A s/w over NM this afternoon will be the next one to traverse SETX on Sunday and will very likely see spotty light showers/light rain/sprinkles again mainly over the southern half of the area on Sunday. This will in turn bring back the clouds as the s/w approaches and moves through. 45 LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday]... Surface high pressure continues over Southeast US Monday through Wednesday of next week continuing the onshore flow into SE Texas. One last short wave embedded in the zonal flow aloft will help bring the possibility of isolated showers early Monday, but precipitation chances lower through the day. Not much shower activity is anticipated on Tuesday, but the persist onshore flow will raise PWATs up to around 1.25". This added moisture combined with some daytime heating could lead to some isolated showers Tuesday afternoon. An upper level low will be dropping down from the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday with the associated surface low developing in the Central Plains Tuesday night. With this surface low to our northwest and high pressure still situated to our east, southerly flow will increase Tuesday night surging PWATs up to near 1.5". A cold front will approach the region on Wednesday, but stall somewhere within or just north of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday into Thursday as this boundary remains nearby. Additional passing upper level disturbances will move through the region Friday into the weekend continuing the chance of showers, but uncertainties remain. Temperatures will be on the warming trend through the week. Highs will be starting out in upper 70s on Monday, low to mid 80s through Wednesday, and then into the upper 80s by Thursday and through the weekend. Low temperatures will be following a similar trend with lows on Monday in the upper 50s to low 60s, low to mid 60s on Tuesday, then upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday when the peak of the moist, southerly flow occurs. With the boundary potential parked somewhere across the region Thursday, the lows will likely be in the upper 50s behind the boundary and mid 60s ahead of the boundary. Fowler MARINE... ESE and SE winds will prevail early in the forecast then SE and S through the end of the forecast. Winds tonight should come up a few knots and could briefly flirt with SCEC for the southwestern waters but not that confident that a SCEC will be needed so will hold off for now. Monday night winds start increasing and by Tuesday fully expect at least SCEC conditions and probably SCA with a longer fetch just getting started and continues to strengthen and increase for Wednesday. SCA by Wednesday is going to be a given with seas of 5-7 feet and some decent swell in there. Rip current statement will continue to into this evening and could need one late Sunday or Monday and as the washing machine action gets cranked up Wednesday swimming will be more hazardous on the Gulf facing beaches. 45 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 52 74 55 78 60 / 0 20 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 53 75 58 77 63 / 0 20 0 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 60 73 65 72 67 / 10 30 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands... Galveston Island. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...99 Aviation/Marine...99
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