Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 130207 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 907 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Afternoon]... Clouds continue to spread inland as low levels moisten further. This should lead to a mostly cloudy to cloudy night across much of the area as well as warmer. Some sprinkles or showers will be possible after 2 am or so beneath the cap but accumulations if any will be light. Will be keeping a close eye on the storms near the cold front well northwest of Austin that will be slowing as it sags southward. Storms though near the boundary in the vicinity of Austin should weaken as they move southeastward so will be holding off on any mention of TSRA in the overnight forecast...just SHRA. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Expanding deck of VFR/MVFR will spread inland to the northwest and then northeast through 12z with gradual lowering throughout the night. By 12z expect widespread MVFR ceilings at CXO southward and even down into IFR closer to the coast. Spotty showers will be in the offing as well and will be carrying VCSH in the TAFs for most sites after 08z. Warming in the late morning should give rise to the ceilings and may even go VFR IAH northward 17-19z as front sags into the area. But this heating will also increase the threat for TSRA mainly after 20z. Do have some concerns for the areas northeast and east of IAH where low level convergence near the frontal boundary gets maximized. So may need some significant changes to the forecast near IAH/CXO if these pan out. Round of lower CIGS Tuesday evening with IFR/LIFR more widespread across the hubs. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/... .LONG TERM [Wednesday through Monday]... No significant changes in the long term forecast. On Wednesday, models still show an upper-level low over The Great Lakes deepening slightly as it pushes east. With this deepening low, WAA will strengthen across The Gulf Coast and keep PWATS at 1.5-1.75 along Southeast Texas. The upper-level low`s associated surface cold front will be weak and hovering across our southern and coastal counties as it slowly pushes off our coast. Therefore, with moderate instability and daytime heating, afternoon thunderstorms are expected along with scattered showers on Wednesday. In the wake of Wednesday`s front, winds will become NE and persist through at least Friday, allowing daytime highs to remain cool and in the 70s. Overnight cloud cover will remain dense which will trap excess heat and keep overnight temperatures in the 50s to 60s throughout the rest of the work week. Through the rest of the work week, small and embedded shortwaves within largely zonal flow will keep rain chances approximately 20- 40% across our CWA with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front is expected to push through Southeast Texas on Friday afternoon, and bring with it more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much needed rainfall from Wednesday through Friday will range from 0.5-1.0 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Behind this front, NE winds will resume behind this front and CAA will help keep daytime highs this weekend in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. KBL .MARINE... The pressure gradient will briefly tighten tonight in response to a weak coastal trough that tries to develop along the mid/lower TX coast. Have issued a SCEC for the offshore waters for tonight but the gradient is expected to begin relaxing prior to sunrise. A weak cold front will approach the coast on Tuesday and stall before reaching the waters. The pressure gradient should relax further as the front nears the coast. E-SE winds should prevail Tuesday and gently veer to S-SE as low pressure develops over South Texas. Wind speeds should remain light as the weak front waffles back and forth near the coast. An area of low pressure will move into LA Wednesday night and this should drag the cold front into the coastal waters late Wednesday night or early Thursday. A moderate NE wind is expected Thursday as high pressure builds into the southern plains. A SCEC may be needed for Thursday. Pressures will begin to fall over northern Mexico as the surface high moves east. This will induce an east wind on Friday ahead of another front that will cross the coastal waters Friday night. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 80 64 75 58 / 30 40 60 30 40 Houston (IAH) 69 85 70 79 61 / 40 50 50 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 71 80 72 79 66 / 30 30 40 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE...11
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