Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TXVersions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
143 FXUS64 KHGX 072346 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 646 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... The weak cold front has been progressing through the area with it already moving pass CLL and UTS within the past few hours. It will pass through CXO around 7pm, IAH around 8pm, and then HOU/SGR by 9pm. The thunderstorm activity along the front has diminished, but expect a thin line of showers and a brief northerly wind shift to accompany the frontal passage. The front will continue to weaken as it approaches the coast and eventually wash out, so LBX and GLS may never get a wind shift. Skies will be clearing out behind the front, but lingering moisture will allow for the possibility of patchy fog developing tonight into Thursday morning. Visibilities are looking to remain between 2 and 3 miles, but cannot out rule some below mile visibilities by sunrise developing. The fog will dissipate by the mid morning giving way to a VFR day of light southerly winds and mostly clear skies. Clouds returns Thursday night with some MVFR CIGs possible. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 420 PM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]... Partly to mostly cloudy skies are found across a majority of Southeast Texas early this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms that are associated with a cold front moving into our far northern counties. We are monitoring the possibility of some of this activity to potentially intensify into strong/severe storms, but the best dynamics/lift and greater risks are off to our north and northeast where there is a Tornado Watch in effect until 8 PM CDT. We will continue to closely monitor in case anything in our area strengthens as activity works its way across our area during the remaining afternoon/evening/overnight hours. After the warm/muggy day today (highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s), look for temperatures to cool down behind the front with overnight lows expected to range from the low to mid 50s well inland to the low to mid 60s near/along the coast. Winds will quickly turn back around to the south and warm us back up on Thursday with a majority of inland highs probably hitting the mid to upper 80s. With the south winds persisting into Thursday night, there will not be much of a cool down with lows expected to only dip into the mid to upper 60s. We could also have some potential for periods of late night through early morning fog development tonight and maybe tomorrow night as indicated by some models. 42 .LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]... Updated Day 3 from SPC this afternoon continuing with the idea of active/possibly severe weather for much of SE TX on Fri. Abundant heating (highs approaching the upper 80s) combined with deepening low-level moisture (PWs near 1.7") will set the stage for strong/ severe development as the cold front moves in from the north. The surface low progged to form on this line over Central TX, as well as an increasingly favorable jet pattern aloft (LFQ) are support- ive of the Slight Risk in place over the NE half of the CWA. Best guess at timing for the bulk of the storms look to be mid to late Fri afternoon into the evening hours...with large hail and strong damaging winds as the primary threats. The chances for tornadoes, while low, will be present, however. Please stay updated with the latest forecasts as there will likely be some changes/tweaks with subsequent model runs. Cooler/drier weather on tap for Sat in the wake of the cold front as northerly winds prevail. Surface high pressure building in Sat night and then quickly moving off on Sun should help to raise day time temperatures as onshore winds return. Rain chances could be- gin a slow return as early as late Mon afternoon (daytime heating and the seabreeze) but should be better Tues/Weds as we throw the occasional shortwave (moving in from the west) in the mix. 41 .MARINE... Moderate onshore winds will continue across the coastal waters for the rest of the afternoon with SCEC flags persisting. The pressure gradient will be weakening by this evening as the cold front makes its way into the region from the N/NW. This line should stall just before it reaches the coast, but its proximity will produce a more easterly flow briefly overnight. SE winds are set to return across the marine waters tomorrow and strengthen slightly tomorrow after- noon and night. The next cold front is forecast to be stronger and should move into the Gulf waters by late Sat morning and afternoon. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will likely accompany this front as it moves south. Light/moderate N/NW winds to prevail thru Sat night before high pressure settles over the region. As the sfc high shifts quickly east, onshore winds are forecast to return Sun afternoon/night. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 86 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 20 40 Houston (IAH) 61 86 67 88 68 / 50 0 0 20 50 Galveston (GLS) 67 77 70 82 69 / 30 0 0 10 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$
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