Monday, December 26, 2016

Dec. 26 16

Notes: Big to small, mostly bright white, some bright white mixed with light to dark grey and some light to dark blueish and purplish grey, thick, flat, puffy, high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky in northwest Houston, TX during the morning and afternoon. The sky looked to have become clear for a few hours, sometime during the evening, or maybe early night. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, puffy, high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky in northwest Houston, TX during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be relatively calm with moderate gusts and some occasional moderately strong gusts in northwest Houston, TX during the morning, afternoon, evening, and early night. It felt warm in northwest Houston, TX during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel very warm in northwest Houston, TX during the late morning. It started to feel hot in northwest Houston, TX during the early afternoon. It felt hot in northwest Houston, TX during the mid-afternoon. It started to feel warm in northwest Houston, TX during the late afternoon. It felt warm in northwest Houston, TX during the evening and night. There was a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to pass through the Houston, TX area, but I don't remember seeing any on the radar, during the morning, afternoon, evening, or night. There might have been a few light to moderate isolated showers in the Houston, TX area, but I don't remember seeing any. I only saw a few light to maybe moderate and moderately heavy showers and maybe thunderstorms to the west of the Houston, TX area during different times of the day.

Thoughts: Another hot day. I actually felt comfortable in the pool. I didn't feel cold at all. The pool heater from yesterday might have helped a little. The sun shining directly on the pool during most of the afternoon. A few records looked to have been broken within the Houston, TX area. But the hot weather doesn't look like it will last though. Cold weather looks to be on the way as we enter the new year.


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 270318
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
918 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Surface analysis as of 8 PM CST shows a stalled frontal boundary
stretching from Laredo to Temple to Texarkana, with an approaching
cold front crossing the Red River into North Texas. This
secondary front will continue to move south across North Texas
overnight tonight, overtaking the stalled frontal boundary and
pushing into the region on Tuesday morning. A broken line of
showers (with a few embedded thunderstorms) is expected to develop
along this front as it moves south overnight, with moisture
pooling ahead of this approaching boundary resulting in patchy to
areas of dense fog development. Southwest to westerly mid level
flow will actually help push the associated surface high behind
this front east of Southeast Texas and expect this frontal
boundary to stall somewhere across the region on Tuesday. A
preliminary look at the 00Z NAM shows the front hanging up
somewhere along the Highway 59 corridor, and fog may be slow to
lift in areas south of the highway tomorrow morning as a result.

The main update to the ongoing forecast was the issuance of a
Dense Fog Advisory for the lowest two tiers of counties, with
additional updates made to temperatures and dew points based on
latest observations. Expect lows to range from near 60 over the
northern counties to near 70 along the coast under mostly cloudy
skies.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/

AVIATION...
A weak front over North Texas will slowly move south and probably
become stationary over SE TX on Tuesday. A weak line of shra/tsra
will be possible over the northern TAF sites later tonight. South
of the front, winds will become light and moisture pooling ahead
of the front will lead to low ceilings and fog. Since winds are
so light, feel fog will be the primary threat. A light east winds
at the coast has brought some sea fog inland and KGLS is already a
1/2 mile. Aviation interests should prepare for LIFR conds tonight
into Tuesday with slow improvement Tuesday morning. MVFR/VFR conds
expected by Tuesday afternoon. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CST Mon Dec 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis at 21Z has weak frontal boundary just north of
Waco with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it
evident on radar. Another front was located across N Oklahoma.
Latest short range model guidance has this secondary front giving
the first front a bit of a push tonight into Tuesday morning. The
front may stall from near Brenham to Conroe but these shallow
colder airmass could slide a bit farther south. The front however
should stall before reaching Houston. This means a moist unstable
airmass will remain over all of SE Texas and support a few showers
and isolated thunderstorms through tonight.

Along the coast, the moist airmass will support sea fog where bay
and Gulf waters are cold enough to cool the moist air. A marine
dense fog advisory will continue tonight into tomorrow morning for
the possibility of visibility dropping below 1 nautical mile.
Fog should lift again late tomorrow morning and likely go through
the same diurnal cycle on Wednesday and Thursday.

Through Thursday there is not a lot of change in the forecast
data. Aloft an upper level low has cut off over the Pacific with a
strong upper low over the northern Plains. Tomorrow the ridge
aloft becomes a bit stronger tomorrow over Texas while the cut off
low remains west of California. The next strong shortwave still
moves across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday allow for a cold
front to push through the area Thursday. The GFS/ECMWF seem to be
signaling a colder Friday with the surface ridge moving more over
Texas and quickly shifting east. Forecast has dropped temps a
couple of degrees but still higher than guidance. Friday return
flow sets up with increasing isentropic lift and increasing cloud
cover. The timing of the return flow will dictate cloud cover and
temperatures for the day.

The New Year`s weekend forecast and beyond is still a evolving
mess of a forecast. GFS/ECMWF continue to have problems with
how/when the cut off low over the Pacific moves east over the
weekend. Both solutions are now going with a slower progression
like the ECMWF yesterday with the low shearing out and weakening
over the southern Rockies on Saturday. This still provides lift
for rain chances on Saturday but given the uncertainty PoPs will
stick with 40/50 percent on Saturday and then a round of 30/40
PoPs for Sunday. This will be when the upstream short wave trough
that kicks the cut off east moves into the Plains. The models now
develop a broad deep trough over the western and central U.S.
early next week. This could be a set up for colder weather for
once but long range forecasts beyond day 6-7 have been far from
reliable this winter.

Overpeck

CLIMATE...
So far today we are looking at breaking/tying record high
temperatures at Houston IAH, Houston HOU, and Galveston. College
Station is a degree below tying its record as of 3PM today.
Houston IAH has made it to 82F besting the old record of 80F.
Houston HOU tied the record so far at 81F. Galveston has broken
the old record of 76F with 77F today.

Overpeck

MARINE...
A weakened gradient and the return of light onshore winds will help
to keep the warm/moist air mass in place over the region these next
few days. Widespread sea fog will likely persist over the bays/near
shore waters during this timeframe. Visibilities will be most limit-
ed in the evening/overnight hours but the fog could linger into the
afternoon. Have re-upped the Dense Fog Advisory for tonight through
mid morning tomorrow for the bays and nearshore waters. This mostly
light and mostly SE flow is forecast for the next few days with one
upper system exiting well off to the NE and the next one developing
well out to our west. The next cold front is still forecast to move
into the coastal waters on Thurs. Strong offshore winds in the wake
of this system will likely prompt Caution/Advisory flags by perhaps
Thurs night/early Fri morning. In the meantime, not a lot of relief
in sight from the foggy/warm weather. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      63  69  61  77  58 /  40  30  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              68  77  65  78  63 /  20  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            69  75  64  76  64 /  10  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Fort Bend...Galveston...
     Harris...Jackson...Liberty...Matagorda...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

&&

$$

Discussion...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
404 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
404 AM CST MON DEC 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF FOG...SOME DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

Dense Fog Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
843 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

.MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL THEN EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES WITH FOG
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY
LIFTING.

TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-271500-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FG.Y.0040.161227T0243Z-161227T1500Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON...WINNIE
843 PM CST MON DEC 26 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY.

* EVENT...DENSE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR
  LESS.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.

* IMPACT...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FROM LIMITED VISIBILITY.
  SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED BY LEAVING PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN
  YOUR VEHICLE AND THE ONES IN FRONT OF YOU.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

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