Thursday, May 11, 2017

May. 11 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.

Summary: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. I saw a few rain drops and felt a few during the morning.

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 3839 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHGX 120357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1057 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

First line of storms has died out but storms along the the cold
front have gotten going. Storms should move through the northern
half of the area - CLL around 230-330 am - Houston 5 am on the
tail end of the line if it can overcome the strong cap. Don`t
expect severe out of these storms but heavy downpours and possibly
small hail (mainly Huntsville to Cleveland northeastward) as they
pass through. Temperatures will be warm overnight especially near
the coast where rain cooled air should be unable to disturb the
light onshore flow.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/

Showers and storms are expected this evening and tonight ahead of
an approaching cold front. Thunder was only included in KCLL and
KUTS as areas south of that may be too capped for anything more
than showers. KCXO is on the edge and may need to be amended with
thunder depending on how the showers/storms are progressing. The
cold front itself will push through SE Texas tomorrow morning with
NW winds in its wake. MVFR cigs are expected early tomorrow
morning out ahead of the front. After the frontal passage, VFR
conditions and light to moderate NW flow are expected for the
rest of the taf period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/

Storms still going strong in Houston county and line is filling in
back down to near Austin. Short term guidance seems to generally
be supporting the ongoing radar trends of coverage expansion.
AMDAR soundings showing little if any change in strength of the
cap at 700mb but some erosion of the warm beneath has occurred.
Storms may hold together as they get further south but should be a
good deal weaker. Will raise pops across the north and central
and expand Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 to include a few more
counties as far south as Montgomery county.

Main threats look to be hail and if the line gets more organized
possibly wind gusts in the northeastern counties but may be
marginal at best.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/

The main threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening will be
in the northern most counties of the CWA. As of 20Z, radar was
beginning to show a wider coverage of shower and thunderstorm
development in the northern counties. There are a few lingering
showers right along the coastline, but with the strong cap seen in
the forecast soundings, expect most of the development in the
southern counties to diminish. SPC has issued a severe
thunderstorm watch until 10:00PM CDT this evening for the
following 7 counties: Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker,
Trinity, and Houston. The main concern during this time period
will be the threat for severe hail and wind.

A special sounding was sent up by FWD this afternoon, which
showed the erosion of the strong cap that was seen in the 12Z
launch. The shortwave that is currently west northwest of the
forecast area is still expected to move across our northern
counties beginning late this afternoon through early evening. This
disturbance will act as a lifting mechanism, mainly between 21Z
today into 06Z Friday, mainly for the counties in the severe
thunderstorm watch. There is still a discrepancy in the timing of
this disturbance between the ECMWF and GFS. The GFS bring the
shortwave in early around 00Z Friday, with a secondary round of
higher positive vorticity values associated with the cold front
moving through by 12Z Friday. The ECMWF brings in the shortwave a
little later this evening around 03Z, with additional lift being
provided by the cold front which moves off the coast of SE TX by
12Z Friday. Based off the global models, the precipitation
associated with the front should push off the coast by 12Z Friday,
with possibly a few stray showers trailing behind the main line
eventually making their way off the coast by 15Z. Most of the
global models are in agreement regarding the time the precip
pushes off the coast.

Will see the winds begin to turn around 10Z Friday, and eventually
be out of the northwest by late morning. High pressure will scoot in
behind the front tomorrow, and hang tight through the weekend and
into the beginning of next week keeping us under drier conditions.
With high pressure, comes clear skies which should allow our high
temperatures tomorrow and Saturday to reach into the low to mid
80s, also associated with some cold air advection filtering into
the region. These cooler high temperatures will rise into the mid
to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. These clear skies will allow for
some radiational cooling overnight, and low temperatures should
be mostly in the 60s through Monday evening. Next best chance for
rain will roll in at the end of next week, associated with the
next possible frontal boundary/shortwave.


Moderate onshore winds were occurring as a result of the strong
inflow into the storm system centered over western Oklahoma. These
will diminish through the evening as first a prefrontal trough moves
toward and off the coast and then the main cold front Friday
morning. The front is expected to move off of the coast sometime
around mid morning. Offshore winds behind the front could approach
caution levels later on Friday and Friday night. Onshore winds are
expected by Sunday.



College Station (CLL)      65  82  60  84  62 /  80  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              71  86  64  86  64 /  50  20   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            74  83  68  81  72 /  50  30   0   0   0





Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
427 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-
Matagorda-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
427 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a cold
front pushes through the area. Gusty winds and small hail will
possible overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Gusty northwest winds Friday in the wake of the cold front but
should be short lived. Otherwise no hazardous weather is expected
at this time.


Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.


No comments:

Post a Comment