Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.
Summary: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. I saw a few rain drops and felt a few during the morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 120357 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1057 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 .UPDATE... First line of storms has died out but storms along the the cold front have gotten going. Storms should move through the northern half of the area - CLL around 230-330 am - Houston 5 am on the tail end of the line if it can overcome the strong cap. Don`t expect severe out of these storms but heavy downpours and possibly small hail (mainly Huntsville to Cleveland northeastward) as they pass through. Temperatures will be warm overnight especially near the coast where rain cooled air should be unable to disturb the light onshore flow. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ AVIATION... Showers and storms are expected this evening and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Thunder was only included in KCLL and KUTS as areas south of that may be too capped for anything more than showers. KCXO is on the edge and may need to be amended with thunder depending on how the showers/storms are progressing. The cold front itself will push through SE Texas tomorrow morning with NW winds in its wake. MVFR cigs are expected early tomorrow morning out ahead of the front. After the frontal passage, VFR conditions and light to moderate NW flow are expected for the rest of the taf period. 11 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ UPDATE... Storms still going strong in Houston county and line is filling in back down to near Austin. Short term guidance seems to generally be supporting the ongoing radar trends of coverage expansion. AMDAR soundings showing little if any change in strength of the cap at 700mb but some erosion of the warm beneath has occurred. Storms may hold together as they get further south but should be a good deal weaker. Will raise pops across the north and central and expand Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209 to include a few more counties as far south as Montgomery county. Main threats look to be hail and if the line gets more organized possibly wind gusts in the northeastern counties but may be marginal at best. 45 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017/ DISCUSSION... The main threat for showers and thunderstorms this evening will be in the northern most counties of the CWA. As of 20Z, radar was beginning to show a wider coverage of shower and thunderstorm development in the northern counties. There are a few lingering showers right along the coastline, but with the strong cap seen in the forecast soundings, expect most of the development in the southern counties to diminish. SPC has issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 10:00PM CDT this evening for the following 7 counties: Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, Madison, Walker, Trinity, and Houston. The main concern during this time period will be the threat for severe hail and wind. A special sounding was sent up by FWD this afternoon, which showed the erosion of the strong cap that was seen in the 12Z launch. The shortwave that is currently west northwest of the forecast area is still expected to move across our northern counties beginning late this afternoon through early evening. This disturbance will act as a lifting mechanism, mainly between 21Z today into 06Z Friday, mainly for the counties in the severe thunderstorm watch. There is still a discrepancy in the timing of this disturbance between the ECMWF and GFS. The GFS bring the shortwave in early around 00Z Friday, with a secondary round of higher positive vorticity values associated with the cold front moving through by 12Z Friday. The ECMWF brings in the shortwave a little later this evening around 03Z, with additional lift being provided by the cold front which moves off the coast of SE TX by 12Z Friday. Based off the global models, the precipitation associated with the front should push off the coast by 12Z Friday, with possibly a few stray showers trailing behind the main line eventually making their way off the coast by 15Z. Most of the global models are in agreement regarding the time the precip pushes off the coast. Will see the winds begin to turn around 10Z Friday, and eventually be out of the northwest by late morning. High pressure will scoot in behind the front tomorrow, and hang tight through the weekend and into the beginning of next week keeping us under drier conditions. With high pressure, comes clear skies which should allow our high temperatures tomorrow and Saturday to reach into the low to mid 80s, also associated with some cold air advection filtering into the region. These cooler high temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday. These clear skies will allow for some radiational cooling overnight, and low temperatures should be mostly in the 60s through Monday evening. Next best chance for rain will roll in at the end of next week, associated with the next possible frontal boundary/shortwave. Hathaway MARINE... Moderate onshore winds were occurring as a result of the strong inflow into the storm system centered over western Oklahoma. These will diminish through the evening as first a prefrontal trough moves toward and off the coast and then the main cold front Friday morning. The front is expected to move off of the coast sometime around mid morning. Offshore winds behind the front could approach caution levels later on Friday and Friday night. Onshore winds are expected by Sunday. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 82 60 84 62 / 80 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 86 64 86 64 / 50 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 83 68 81 72 / 50 30 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...45
Hazardous Weather OutlookHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 427 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-122130- Brazoria-Chambers- Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM- Fort Bend-Galveston-Galveston Bay-Harris-Jackson-Liberty- Matagorda-Matagorda Bay- Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM- Wharton- 427 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a cold front pushes through the area. Gusty winds and small hail will possible overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Gusty northwest winds Friday in the wake of the cold front but should be short lived. Otherwise no hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. $$