May. 1 17

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.

West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the late evening.

Northwest Houston, TX, during the early night.

Summary: The day was warm, sunny, and clear. No rain. The sky stayed clear. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with some really strong gusts during the late evening and maybe night. It felt cool during the early morning, but became warm during the mid-morning. There was a air quality alert issued for the Houston, TX area. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, advisories, or weather statements issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of.The low temps looked to be in the 50's with high temps in the mid to upper 80's, for the Houston, TX area.

Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.

Thoughts: It was a nice pleasant and warm day..

Area Forecast Discussion 

Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000

FXUS64 KHGX 020225

AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX

925 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

.UPDATE...

There is nothing enlightening to share this evening concerning the

near term forecast. Overnight starry skies...near calm variable

inland breezes...with slightly higher interior moisture than 24

hours ago (more significant across far northern counties).

This set-up will likely equate to minimum temperatures in the

average upper 50s to lower 60s/around 70 F along coast with a more

persistent onshore wind. Above normal warmth Tuesday under mostly

sunny skies...breezy south winds...as afternoon temperatures reach

the average upper 80s to lower 90s (early May norm maxTs are in

the lower 80s). Precipitation/storm chances increase Wednesday

from lead shortwave disturbances riding downstream of Desert SW

troughing. Storm probabilities will heighten with a possible

splitting jet structure in tandem with a southwestern-advected

1.6-1.7 inch pwat becoming-increasingly-unstable regional air

mass. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/

AVIATION...

VFR for the next 24+ hours. 47

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017/

Another lovely day across Southeast Texas today, with more heat

expected tomorrow. Changes come late Tuesday night and Wednesday,

with showers, storms, and potential for severe weather.

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Another gorgeous, albeit warmer day is in progress across Texas.

However, after a slightly cooler than average day yesterday and a

bit of a chilly start, that makes for high temperatures today

around those seasonal averages. As onshore flow becomes a little

stronger tonight, look for dewpoints to rise, and thus keep low

temperatures tonight warmer than the past couple of nights. It

won`t necessarily feel swimming pool humid, but should be much

more typical of late April/early May rather than the crisp nights

we`ve seen. With the higher temperature floor and typical pre-

frontal warmth, expect Tuesday to be quite warm, with a swath of

high temperatures near 90 forecast well inland.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Thursday Morning]...

Look for a change in weather Tuesday night, as a shortwave trough

will approach and move through the area late tonight and

Wednesday morning. Clouds will increase from the southwest,

beginning just before midnight around Matagorda Bay. The shortwave

should be over our area early Wednesday morning, and despite the

atypical time diurnally speaking, sufficient instability looks to

be present to support a morning round of storms, with the best

chances coming near the coast. The low level jet should be kicked

in still, meaning low level flow will be more southerly than

southwesterly, minimizing potential for capping. The wind profile

looks to veer well with height, from southeasterly at the surface,

through southwesterly, and to westerly at 500 mb. Speed

differences are not as impressive which may mitigate shear

potential to some extent, but keep an eye out for early severe

weather here, with hail the most threatening. Additionally,

hodographs look pretty stout, particularly in the 0-1 km range, so

if any storms manage to latch on to some type of coastal

boundary, a tornado or two certainly can`t be ruled out.

As the front comes through later in the day, we are likely to

still be dealing with a significant amount of instability. Some

models continue to suggest up to 4000 j/kg. That may be

unrealistic, particularly if morning storms leave behind some

debris clouds to hamper heating. Regardless, instability will

easily be sufficient and many of the ingredients for an

environment supportive for storms on the front will be in place

for a second round of storms. The big question mark will be the

wind structure. Though impressive this morning, the wind profile

looks to become pretty unidirectional out of the southwest from

850 mb and up. This would be harmful to deep layer shear

magnitude, and would also introduce the potential to create a

failure mode through capping, just as we saw Saturday. Since the

big upper trough looks to lag too far behind the front to add much

dynamic support, we`ll also be looking at shortwave timing. All of

these are difficult to predict beyond the day of (and even then,

it`s still sometimes hard to tell), so confidence in how this

potential second round of storms will play out is a bit lower. We

are in a marginal risk area from SPC for this day, likely mainly

because of these uncertainties. If things look to be lining up

right, expect this risk level to increase. Please continue to

monitor forecasts into Wednesday.

LONG TERM [Thursday Afternoon Through Monday]...

Once the front clears through, cooler and drier air again floods

into Southeast Texas. Ridging will build in the following days,

resulting in quiet weather and gradually warming temperatures.

MARINE...

Southwesterly winds around 10 knots will become south

and southeasterly in the nearshore waters with the lighter winds

well offshore becoming southeasterly. The SE flow continues

through Wednesday morning in advance of a cold front that should

usher in moderate to strong offshore winds early Thursday morning.

SCA conditions 12z through the afternoon. May peak wind gusts

30-35kts Thursday morning. High pressure maintains the offshore

flow through Friday night with surface high drifting over the

waters Saturday morning introducing light and variable winds. 45

FIRE WEATHER...

On a preliminary and non-operational note, the cooler

temperatures early this morning made it easier for GOES-16 to

detect a small fire near the Polk/Trinity county line using the

3.9 micrometer shortwave IR band this morning. After some

investigation by the USFS, it turns out this belonged to a pile

burn. If you are unfamiliar with satellite detections of fire,

suffice to say that a geostationary satellite being able to catch

a glimpse of a pile burn is very impressive.

CLIMATE...

April was generally warm across the area, with most sites in the

10-25 rank for temperatures. But it was particularly so for

Galveston. The average temperature for the month there was 75.0,

tying the record warmest value for the site, last met in 1967.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL)      58  90  66  81  56 /   0   0  40  70  40

Houston (IAH)              62  89  69  80  60 /   0   0  50  70  60

Galveston (GLS)            70  82  74  80  65 /   0   0  60  70  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

Discussion...31