Thursday, November 3, 2016

Nov. 3 16

Notes: The wind speeds felt to be relatively calm with moderate and some strong gusts in west and northwest Houston, TX, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. Big, high, thin stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky during the early morning in west and northwest Houston, TX. I think only a few medium to small high stratus clouds looked to be in the sky in west Houston, TX, during the mid and late morning. Big to small, broth to light/dark grey and bluish grey clouds looked to be scattered across the sky during the afternoon and evening. Stratus clouds covered the whole sky during the night. It felt a little cool during the early morning. It felt a little cool during the early morning in northwest and west Houston, TX. It felt warm during the mid and late morning, evening, and night in west and northwest Houston, TX. It felt really warm, maybe hot during the afternoon. Showers and maybe thunderstorms became scattered across Houston, TX (mostly in the west areas) during the afternoon through the late night. A light, maybe moderate, or moderately heavy shower passed over west Houston, TX, where I was during the early afternoon. A moderate, maybe moderately heavy at times shower passed over west Houston, TX, where I was during the late and maybe mid-afternoon. I didn't see, or feel any rain drops after that. I didn't see, or hear about any flooding, or damages from the showers and maybe thunderstorms. This was my observation of the weather that occurred in west and northwest Houston, TX, where I was during the day.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 040247

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
947 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016

Areas of showers and thunderstorms persist across parts of our western
and southwestern counties. Some locations in and around the stronger
activity earlier this evening have received a radar estimated 3 to 5
inches of rain, generally in and around a Columbus to New Ulm area.
Models show slow weakening over the next several hours as activity
drifts generally to the south. Have updated the evening forecast to
cover rain chances for the rest of the evening in the areas currently
experiencing the storms, and to also cover possible development during
the overnight hours due to left over boundaries and a weak front moving
across the area. 42

Today`s high temperature record was set at Houston Intercontinental
Airport (88 degrees broke the old record of 87 degrees set back in
1992).  42

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2016/

Convection still festering across the western forecast area has
VCSH in place over for the next few hours. Expecting the majority
of this vicinity activity to weaken going into the 03Z-04Z hours
..late evening into early Friday morning VFR. An approaching
weak cold frontal boundary will add an element of uncertainty to
the occurrence and extent of 09-14Z fog and Friday daytime showers
/storms. This package has the boundary slowing entering the
region through the pre-dawn through noon hours...with periods of
early morning MVFR decks and fog. Models are not aggressive with
Friday precipitation but...with the mid-lower level focus provided
by this weakly southern-sagging front within a fairly moist environment
..feel at least VCSH are warranted (amend along the way if needed).


Once again warm and humid conditions are observed for the start
of November. Area radar show a few showers across SE Texas with
more organized thunderstorm activity over C Texas and the Hill
Country. Surface analysis shows a frontal boundary from the
boot heal of Missouri SW through N Texas into west central Texas.
Convection has formed ahead of this boundary which has driven rain
cooled air towards the Brazos Valley.

Water vapor imagery shows upper level ridging over much of Texas
with an upper level low over the Desert SW/Baja Mexico. This
system will remain quasi-stationary tonight but then begin to move
NE into the Rockies as it weakens on Saturday.

Overall for the short term portion of the forecast convection over
C Texas may push some east towards College Station to Columbus,
but likely weaken as it does so. Forecast will keep 20/30 PoPs as
a result. Friday the frontal boundary should remain stalled to the
north of the area allowing for the possibility of more diurnally
driven thunderstorm activity mainly along the coast. Saturday may
be both drier as far as rain chances are concerned but also with
the airmass. The frontal boundary eventually pushes through into
SE Texas more as a front between moist/dry air. There may still be
some slight rain chances to the SW of Houston depending upon how
far to the SW drier air advects.

Sunday into Monday will be a transition from somewhat drier air
from Saturday to having Gulf moisture re-establishing over the
area. Precipitable water values increase back to 1.5 to 1.8 inches
on Monday. GFS/ECMWF do have some consistency with enhanced W/SW
flow in the jet as a jet streak moves into S Texas from Mexico.
This places the left entrance region of the jet for divergence
over much of SE Texas. Warm advection pattern continues within the
boundary layer which will maintain a moist airmass. Right now
think higher rain chances are needed so increased to 40/50 percent
for Monday. This is looking like a decent event for rainfall as
much of the area could get near a half inch to an inch of
rainfall. This probably will not be a drought buster at all but
certainly could help ease dry conditions across the area.

Beyond Tuesday the extended range progs get messy. Wednesday into
Thursday the GFS develops a weak cut-off low back over the Desert
SW while also maintaining a closed low over the plains. ECMWF has
a broader cut off low in a similar position but has ridging
through the plains. The forecast will keep some low end PoPs of
20/30 percent for the middle of next week but think the forecast
may be headed more towards lower rain chances. The closed low the
GFS develops mid week is more progressive in the ECMWF with an
east coast trough. This may be more likely scenario but looks like
GFS ensembles are somewhat split over the pattern evolution.


Elevated seas will gradually slacken as winds continue to weaken
into this evening and overnight. A cold front will push off the
coast tomorrow, but pressure rises behind the front are not expected
to be very impressive. Winds will pick up on Saturday as low
pressure deepening over the Central Plains causes the gradient to
tighten a bit. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and moderate
onshore winds are expected early next week as a coastal trough
develops and hangs out across the Upper Texas Coast. Tides remain
around 1.0-1.4 feet above normal and may approach 3 feet during high
tide again tonight. 11


College Station (CLL)      67  82  62  77  58 /  40  20  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              69  84  63  79  59 /  20  30  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            73  81  70  78  70 /  20  20  10  10  10





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