Northwest Houston, TX during the early evening.
Notes: Big to small, mostly bright white, some bright white mixed with light to dark grey and maybe some blueish grey, thick, flat, low stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky in northwest Houston, TX during the early and mid-morning. Big to small, mostly bright white, some bright white mixed with light to dark grey and maybe some blueish grey, thick and puffy, low stratus clouds looked to cover most of and maybe sometimes the whole sky in northwest Houston, TX during the late morning and early and maybe mid-afternoon. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, wavy, high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky in northwest Houston, TX, from sometime during the late, or maybe mid-afternoon thru most of the early night. A big, bright white, barely view-able, very high stratus cloud looked to cover the whole sky in northwest Houston, TX, from sometime during the early night thru the rest of the night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some moderate gusts in northwest Houston, TX during the morning, afternoon, and evening, and maybe night. It felt warm, maybe a little cool in northwest Houston, TX during the morning and night. It felt warm in northwest Houston, TX during the afternoon and evening. There looked to be a light dense fog when I looked out of my house's window, during the early and mid-morning. The light dense fog looked to have dissipated sometime during the late morning. A big line of light to moderately heavy and maybe some really heavy showers and maybe thunderstorms looked to have formed somewhere in southeast Houston, TX and moved south thru Galveston, TX, when I looked at the radar, during the morning. A quick, few minute, light to moderate shower passed over my house, sometime during the early afternoon.
Thoughts: Houston, TX has been getting a lot of rain this weekend. A great start to the new year! It looks like there is some more rain to come in the extended forecast with also some possible cool to cold temps. But no snow.
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 020439 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1039 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 .UPDATE... Just issued a dense fog advisory over Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters within 20 nm east of Freeport. The visibility should be nearing or getting below 1 nm over portions of the bay as seen by area cameras. Will monitor for possible expansion of the advisory further down the coast. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ CLIMATE... There were 27 daily records set last month at the first-order climate sites with 11 set at the city of Galveston alone. The following is a listing of the records tied or set in September at College Station (CLL), Galveston (GLS), Hobby Airport (HOU), and Houston (IAH). ...Record Temperature and Rainfall Data for December 2016... Site Date Record Type New Record Prev Record CLL 12/24 High Min Temp 68 66 in 1987 # 66 in 1948 * CLL 12/25 High Min Temp 70 62 in 1942 * 61 in 1971 # CLL 12/26 High Max Temp 80 Tied 1988 # Tied 1916 * CLL 12/28 High Max Temp 82 80 in 1984 # 80 in 1921 * GLS 12/03 Rainfall 7.68 2.64 in 1965 GLS 12/13 High Max Temp 81 77 in 1933 GLS 12/17 High Min Temp 69 Tied 1999 GLS 12/17 High Max Temp 77 75 in 2006 and prev GLS 12/24 High Max Temp 77 76 in 2012 GLS 12/25 High Max Temp 76 Tied 2015 GLS 12/26 High Max Temp 78 76 in 2015 GLS 12/27 High Min Temp 69 67 in 1889 GLS 12/27 High Max Temp 78 74 in 2015 and prev GLS 12/28 High Min Temp 68 67 in 1889 GLS 12/28 High Max Temp 76 73 in 2005 HOU 12/17 High Max Temp 82 80 in 2006 HOU 12/26 High Max Temp 82 81 in 2015 HOU 12/27 High Min Temp 70 63 in 1984 HOU 12/27 High Max Temp 82 80 in 1971 HOU 12/28 High Min Temp 70 Tied 1984 HOU 12/28 High Max Temp 82 80 in 1996 and prev IAH 12/17 High Max Temp 81 80 in 1990 and prev IAH 12/26 High Max Temp 84 80 in 2015 IAH 12/27 High Min Temp 67 65 in 1937 IAH 12/27 High Max Temp 83 81 in 1971 IAH 12/28 High Min Temp 70 Tied 1946 IAH 12/28 High Max Temp 82 80 in 1996 Notes: * Previous record for College Station 6 SW COOP (1903 to July 1951) # Previous record for Easterwood Field (August 1931 to present) 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ UPDATE... Area of storms moving across W Texas at 9:30 PM were associated with a strong upper level shortwave trough. The main items of concern continue to be the impact of the upper level shortwave across SE Texas overnight tonight and Monday morning. Patchy fog over the inland areas and sea fog along the coast are other concerns. The latest Texas Tech WRF had a decent handle on the location of the storms at 9 PM. The model shows development ahead of the system beginning between 3 and 6 AM. There were also indications that showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the coastal waters and coastal counties after midnight. The HRRR picked up on this development as well with showers moving inland after midnight. A slight risk for severe storms continues as can be seen on the 00Z CRP and LCH soundings where the MU Cape values ranged from 1600 to near 2300. Forecast helicity values reach 260 ahead of the main line of storms, also. Regarding fog--the high res models showed the potential for patchy fog development overnight as well. The current forecast continues on track. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ AVIATION.../00Z TAF/ Surface analysis at 23Z has low pressure in west Texas in response to an advancing short wave trough over the southern Rockies on water vapor imagery. Light southerly winds tonight should increase tonight. Hi-res mesoscale models have strong/severe convection forming in central Texas and then pushing east rapidly through the morning hours into SE Texas. Ahead of the line expect patchy fog and IFR ceilings. Look for a transition from VFR/MVFR to IFR from 04Z to 06Z tonight with IFR through about 15-16Z when convection pushes through. TAFs will keep mention of VCTS and tempo TSRA for morning hours of 12-16Z since this looks like the time frame in which a line of storms will push through the area. Hi-res models and NAM keep strongest convection north of KCLL/KUTS while the GFS consistently hits all of SE Texas hard with convection. Upper level support will be strongest north of the area and based on model soundings weak capping may be an issue as boundary layer flow veers from SE at the surface to SW at 850MB. Will need to watch Hi-res model trends the next few hours to see if any changes need to be made to timing and intensity of convection. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ DISCUSSION... The main highlights for the upcoming forecast will be a messy entrance into January for Southeast Texas as a thunderstorm complex moves across the region overnight, warm (and possibly near record temperatures) behind this complex on Monday, and a return of colder temperatures as Arctic air spills into the region mid to late week. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows that drier mid- level air working its way into the region has thinned cloud cover across the central and northern counties. This has allowed for enough insolation for a few showers to pop up along the Interstate 10 corridor; have extended mention of isolated showers through 6 PM tonight as a result, but anticipate all activity to dissipate with loss of heating later this afternoon. A dry evening is expected across the region, but the approach of a shortwave trough from the west will quickly herald in an unsettled period of weather by early Monday morning. Located over southern Arizona/New Mexico on afternoon water vapor imagery, this compact disturbance will continue to translate east across Texas tonight. Height falls associated with this feature will result in scattered thunderstorms developing across West and West Central Texas tonight, with upscale growth into a thunderstorm complex expected after midnight tonight. This thunderstorm complex will continue to propagate eastward across Texas, aided by its parent shortwave, reaching the western counties of Southeast Texas after 5-6 AM CST on Monday morning. Ahead of this complex, an intensifying 40-50 knot low level jet after 4 AM and increasing mid/upper level lift overspreading the region may also result in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. High resolution guidance continues to waffle between whether or not this pre-thunderstorm complex activity will develop and what the intensity of this activity would be, likely owing to the presence of a weak capping inversion present around 900 MB on area soundings. Regardless, environmental conditions continue to remain favorable for the development of severe weather both ahead of and with the main thunderstorm complex. The intensifying low level jet will contribute to increasingly curved hodographs and 0-1 KM storm relative helicity values in excess of 150 J/kg across much of the region, representing the presence of at least an isolated tornado threat. This threat would likely materialize with any of the discrete thunderstorms that develop ahead of the main thunderstorm complex approaching from the west. Even if thunderstorms are not able to develop owing to the weak cap in place, any shower that develops ahead of the complex will be able to transport at least some of the strong winds above the surface to the ground. The somewhat negative tilt to the shortwave trough will also encourage steep mid-level lapse rates (around 7-8 C/km) to spread across much of the region, resulting in the risk for large hail as well as damaging winds as the main thunderstorm complex moves across the region. Expect the main thunderstorm complex to clear the region by 12 PM CST on Monday. Behind the complex, clearing skies and deep westerly flow spreading across the region will result in temperatures rising rapidly into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees on Monday afternoon. Have continued to trend warmer than model guidance for this time period given the depth of the westerly flow. These temperatures may even warm enough to result records being tied or broken. For reference, Galveston`s record high on January 2 is 78. This would also be the record warmest temperature for the month of January. The next cold front approaches the region on Tuesday, clearing Southeast Texas by Tuesday night. With limited moisture recovery in the wake of Monday`s system, have continued with a dry forecast for the mid-week portion of the forecast. Modified Arctic air spilling into the region behind the front looks to drop temperatures back down near (to below) seasonal normals, with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. A reinforcing cold front reaches the region late in the week (with considerable medium range differences persisting on timing) and this will keep temperatures below seasonal normals through the end of the week. Have continued to utilize a blend of model guidance for the weekend portion of the forecast, with the deterministic GFS attempting to develop a coastal trough and return Southeast Texas to a rainy pattern and the European maintaining offshore flow and a drier solution. Huffman MARINE... Sea fog (some dense) will continue to be possible until a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through the area during the day on Monday. South winds are expected to strengthen tonight ahead of the storms, and small craft advisories might be needed for the winds as well as building seas. Winds will shift to the west and weaken in the late morning through afternoon hours after the storms move through. A couple of cold fronts during the week will bring north to northeast winds to the area with both winds and seas possibly reaching advisory levels. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 75 49 72 42 / 60 70 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 77 52 74 46 / 40 80 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 79 60 72 52 / 30 70 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Monday morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...40 Aviation/Marine...39