Northwest Houston, TX during the early morning.
West Houston, TX during the late afternoon.
West Houston, TX during the late evening.
Downtown Houston, TX during the early night.
Central Houston, TX during the early night.
Notes: Light to moderately heavy drizzle and maybe rain in Houston, TX during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I saw some on and off light to moderately heavy drizzle in west Houston, TX during the morning and afternoon. I also saw some light to moderate drizzle in central Houston, TX during the early night. The day was mostly cloudy and cool.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 539 AM CST THU JAN 5 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-061145- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA- MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WHARTON- 539 AM CST THU JAN 5 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING LEVELS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TO FREEZING AND BELOW FREEZING LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 060503 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1103 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017 .AVIATION... The cold front has reached the coastline around 05Z and will continue to push offshore through the overnight hours. In its wake, gusty north to north-northeast winds are expected to continue through the entire forecast period (and into Saturday before diminishing). Ceilings near the IFR/MVFR threshold late tonight are expected to only slowly improve through the day, with expectations that VFR will be reached in the afternoon far inland, and late Friday night towards the coast. Beyond the gradual improvement in ceilings, the forecast also looks for periods of drizzle or light showers from IAH coastward, which may occasionally bring some modest visibility reductions near or to MVFR. Though avn guidance brings -SN to CXO tonight into tomorrow afternoon, it should be much too dry for any wintry precip by the time sufficiently cold air arrives. If anywhere, CLL and UTS would have the "best" chance for perhaps some sleet, but between the low potential and negligible impacts from nil accumulation on warm ground even if it did occur, will not mention in the TAF. Still, if a pellet or two were to smack down early Friday morning, it wouldn`t be a complete shocker. Luchs && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ DISCUSSION... Latest observations show cold front almost to the Upper Texas Coast. Behind the front temperatures have dropped into the 40s with the freezing line over north Texas. Based on water vapor imagery the next strong jet streak is coming into the Great Basin. This is the system that will bring snow to the Southern Plains and across to the SE U.S/Carolinas. Looking at latest HRRR model trends and objective analyses, look for isentropic lift to begin to increase at 295K between 925-850mb. Frontogenesis in 925-850mb increases late Friday but by this time moisture will be rather limited for any precip. The best chances for rain/drizzle will be starting later tonight through much of the the morning Friday. Subsidence will increase along with drying late Friday as 850mb front pushes into the Gulf of Mexico. Since both frontogenetic lift and large scale quasi-geostrophic ascent will be weakening Friday night, there is no longer a mention of any frozen precipitation. IF there was an opportunity for frozen precipitation, it would be Friday morning for MAYBE a couple of hours from say 5am to 8am across areas from College Station to Huntsville. Model soundings indicate isentropic lift and a saturated layer from 925mb up to 750mb with a sub freezing layer from surface up to 875mb. So there is a solid 3500ft sub freezing layer only that the near surface up to 2000 feet is dry as surface dewpoints drop into the low 20s. Thermodynamic web bulb processes could support an ice pellet/sleet or two but there would have to be a lot of evaporation to cool and moisten this layer. Surface temps will only be 29-32F so may be hard to get cold enough surfaces for even freezing rain/drizzle. There is very low confidence in these processes happening. So much so that mention of frozen precip will not be in the forecast. The only other adjustments to the forecast were for temperatures trends and keeping with obs and short range guidance. It does look like Saturday morning will be quite cold with low temperatures in the 20s for most areas. Overpeck PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ AVIATION... Ahead of the cold front passing through the area right now, conditions have improved to MVFR. In the immediate vicinity of the front is a brief area of clearing, which is currently affecting our northern sites, and should for no more than the next few hours. Already see signs of ceilings right around 3k feet, give or take a few hundred feet filling in this area of clearing, so only give tempo improvement as there is expectation for this area of clearing to continue to erode through the evening. Behind this cleared out area are more MVFR ceilings, and so the entire area returns to that overnight and into tomorrow. Through this period, blustery winds out of the north will continue. Potential for drizzle or light showers from DWH coastward returns either very late tonight or tomorrow. Another concern tomorrow will be a layer of saturated air from about 1500-4000 feet with temperatures a little below freezing - conditions ripe for supercooled water droplets, and could potentially cause light riming issues. There may start to be some scattering of clouds right at the end of IAH`s extended period at 07/06Z, but confidence is not yet high enough on that timing to include for the sake of a couple hours at most. Luchs PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017/ DISCUSSION... A cold front will continue to push through SE Texas this afternoon with some isolated light rain showers continuing generally south of Hwy 59. Breezy offshore winds at the surface will usher in a much cooler air mass in the wake of this front. Overnight tonight and into Friday, strong SW flow at around 850mb will create some isentropic lift over a shallow cold layer, bringing light stratiform rain/drizzle over much of the area. Some of our far northwestern counties will likely drop below freezing around sunrise on Friday, but no precipitation is expected that far north and west during that time. By the time the isentropic lift brings showers/drizzle into the Brazos Valley on Friday, temperatures should have had the chance to warm into the mid 30s. If the showers do make it far enough northward while surface temperatures are below freezing, some wintry precip may be possible (although very unlikely). The strong NW winds bringing in the cold, dry air mass at the surface may cause some of the precip to evaporate before it reaches the ground. Even if any wintry precip does manage to occur, no accumulation is expected. No wintry precipitation has been included in our grids as we think a rain shower/drizzle combination is the most likely outcome. After Friday, isentropic lift is lost and the air mass dries out considerable. The weekend will be cold and dry, with temperatures warming quickly at the beginning of next week with strong southwesterly low level flow overhead. Another cold front is forecast to approach SE Texas around midweek next week but may or may not even make it off the coast. 11 MARINE... The passage of a cold front off the upper Texas coastline this evening will usher in strong offshore winds that will persist through Saturday. All water Small Craft Advisory level winds will commence this evening and last through Friday evening...weakening over the bays to Cautions and remaining Advisory over the Gulf Friday night through Saturday morning. Much colder air over warmer waters will likely allow flags to remain hoisted over the far offshore waters until Sunday afternoon. Bays and seas will quickly respond through the overnight hours...rough bay conditions late tonight through Saturday morning with elevated seas to near an average 7 feet nearshore...10 feet offshore...through the day Friday and into Saturday. Tides are currently within a few inches of a foot above normal. Levels will likely flip to be around a foot or slightly more below normal through Friday. A forecast more easterly component to the offshore flow will likely minimize the threat for low water issues within the local upper reaches of our bays...ship channels and inlets. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 30 37 24 42 / 10 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 56 37 40 28 44 / 20 30 30 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 62 44 45 34 45 / 20 40 40 20 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from Friday evening through Saturday morning for the following zones: Galveston Bay... Matagorda Bay. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...39 Aviation/Marine...25