Northwest Houston, TX during the early morning.
Notes: Big to small, bright white, bright white mixed with light to dark grey, mostly blueish grey, thick, flat, puffy, low stratus clouds looked to cover most, or maybe the whole sky in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early morning. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, some puffy, low and high stratus clouds looked to be widely scattered across the sky in west Houston, TX during the mid and late morning, afternoon, and evening. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, puffy, low stratus clouds looked to cover the whole, or maybe most of the sky in northwest, southwest, and west Houston, TX during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some moderate to moderately strong gusts in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm to relatively calm with moderate to moderately strong and maybe some really strong gusts in west Houston, TX during the mid and late morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm to relatively calm with moderate to moderately strong and some really strong (20-25 mph) gusts in west Houston, TX during the afternoon, evening, and early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong and some really strong (20-25 mph) gusts in northwest and southwest Houston, TX during the early night. It felt warm in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early morning. It felt warm in west Houston, TX during the mid and late morning. It felt warm, maybe very warm with a cool wind in west Houston, TX during the afternoon. It felt warm with a cool wind in west Houston, TX during the evening, and early night. It felt warm with a cool wind in northwest and southwest Houston, TX during the early night. There was a slight chance (20 to 40%) for rain for the Houston, TX area during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I saw some light to moderately heavy showers in and around the Houston, TX area on the radar, during the evening and early night. I didn't see, or feel any rain drops anytime during the day. I also didn't see any fog. There was a dense fog advisory issued for the coastal areas of southeast Houston, TX during the morning and night. Some of the fog was reported to have moved inland, but I didn't see any.
Thoughts: Still wondering if Houston, TX is going to get any rain this weekend and early next week. So far I haven't seen much.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 140408 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1008 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017 .DISCUSSION... A cold front hung up along the I-35 corridor has keep this warm and moist air mass in place across southeastern Texas. A weak shortwave moving through within the upper southwesterly flow has provided just enough lift within a slightly more unstable coastal environment to generate scattered showers. This light -RA activity has formed and moved north generally along the Gulf Freeway into the city...now passing into Montgomery County this hour. Light showers will occasionally spring up through Saturday...an unstable enough lower 7-8 k ft layer to support under-the-cap showers within a continued warm and moist regional air mass (as the cold frontal boundary is forecast to wash out as it moves back to the northwest early Saturday). A light southeast wind with slight rain chances through Sunday. Overnight minimum temperatures in the average middle 60s...a mostly cloudy Saturday as afternoon temperatures warm into the middle to upper 70s. A 67 year old record maximum temperature record of 80 F at College Station may be threatened but record maximum Ts around the city are in the (20 year old record) lower to middle 80s and these records may hold. A few cloud breaks can quickly shoot early afternoon temperature readings up so we`ll see if any records fall or are tied Saturday. Dense sea fog will again be an issue late this evening and this deck will persist well into the daytime hours tomorrow across the marine communities. Fog/low overcast may wreck havoc on tomorrow`s temperature forecast...current thinking is that fog or a low deck across the coastal counties will keep many in the low to mid 70s. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/ AVIATION... IFR/LIFR cigs and/or fog will roll in from from the coast this evening and overnight. These unfavorable conditions will persist until the late morning hours Saturday inland and linger into the afternoon hours at the coast before any improvement occurs. Model guidance is indicating the potential for some spotty shra, which if occurs will provide some temporary improvement where that occurs. Not enough confidence to include the mention in the tafs however. 47 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/ Sea fog has largely pulled back from land areas this afternoon, but will continue to be a potential hazard for immediate coastal areas through the weekend, particularly in the nights and morning hours. While low potential for showers or a thunderstorm will also be present through the weekend, the best potential for rain looks to come early next week. Rain may be locally heavy, but at this time the best potential for heavy rain should be north of our area. After that, look for a cooling trend only into the midweek before temperatures go back on the upswing. Through this weekend... Observations show the cold front has stalled northwest of our area, leaving us in continued higher moisture air and onshore flow. Fog or low stratus is in place over the nearshore waters and immediate coastal areas, while satellite shows more of a cloud street pattern oriented with the generally southeasterly flow for the rest of Southeast Texas and only limited vertical growth thanks to capping. This stalled front is unlikely to move much for most of the weekend, though eventually should be dragged back northwards as a warm front later on Sunday in advance of a new cold front. As such, expect continued warmth and sea fog potential through the weekend. Front-perpendicular flow prompts some low PoPs as there should be some gentle upglide. But, with capping in place and a subtle patch of dry air swinging through, not expecting much activity on Saturday. Sunday, an upper trough swinging through the Panhandles while a jet streak noses towards the area may support a little better chance of showers or a storm, but the main show looks to hold off until after midnight and early next week. Late Sunday night through Tuesday night... As the upper trough continues to eject to the northeast, the surface low will follow on a path from the Red River Valley towards the Great Lakes. Unlike the current front that failed to reach our area, this should manage to make it to the coastline before stalling Tuesday night (though not much farther). As a consequence, PoPs should increase dramatically for Monday. Progged precipitable water doesn`t look nearly as robust as previous model cycles, only in the 1-1.3 inch range rather than 1.5 inches, with the higher moisture pool looking to occur more over Northeast Texas. This should limit rainfall potential some for us, but we`re still looking boundary-parallel flow, so don`t write off heavy rain potential. Specifics are still a bit sketchy as models have the same general idea, but still show some differences both in timing, and the character of how midlevel vorticity streams through. Wednesday and beyond... As the trough axis moves through and the front stalls, we should see a modestly cooler and drier airmass attempt to work into the area, bringing us some cooler temperatures for the midweek. But temperature falls don`t look too dramatic, only falling to near or even still a little above seasonal averages. From here, model consensus really breaks down, introducing some pretty significant model uncertainty. The GFS, which has been more discrete/pulsy in moving vort maxes through, has a pretty potent bowling ball over Southeast Texas for Thursday, which develops a surface reflectance from the stalled frontal zone and rides along that boundary through Southeast Texas. The result is a pretty good blast of rain with that coastal low. On the other extreme, the Euro still shows a vort max, but is much more modest - likely as it keeps a more elongated upper trough in place opposed to the GFS` staccato bursts of vorticity advection. For what it`s worth, the Canadian shows characteristics of both solutions, but the result on sensible weather seems to more closely parallel the Euro. Since rapid fire bursts of closed upper lows seems a bit out of the norm, the forecast leans strongly towards the Euro`s picture, but does include chance PoPs Wednesday and Thursday in deference to the plausible, if seemingly less likely, scenario posed by the GFS. But, with southwest flow aloft, there is greater confidence for rising temperatures in the back half of the week. 25/39 && MARINE... Per satellite, an area of sea fog has persisted just off the upper TX coast from High Island to the San Luis Pass through this after- noon. Did issue an update earlier this afternoon to keep the Dense Fog advisory up for these areas for the rest of the day. This same update also re-issued the Dense Fog advisory for both bays and the entire length of our nearshore waters for this evening through to- morrow morning. These advisories will likely be extended (in parts or as a whole) through the weekend as this weather pattern remains in place. Long-range models not showing any sort of change/frontal passage until perhaps next Tues. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 77 61 75 63 / 20 20 20 30 50 Houston (IAH) 65 78 63 75 64 / 20 20 20 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 65 71 62 70 64 / 40 10 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ Discussion...31/47
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 436 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141045- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA- MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WHARTON- 436 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST TODAY. VISIBILITIES WILL VARY GREATLY...RANGING BETWEEN 1 AND 6 MILES. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW A 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
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