Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Summary: The day was warm, mostly cloudy, and dry. Maybe some rain. There looked to be some cumulonimbus clouds during the early evening that looked to be producing rain, but I didn't see any rain on TWC's Houston, TX radar. I didn't see, feel, or hear about any rain drops. Alto stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the early morning. Stratocumulus clouds looked to cover most of the sky during the mid and late morning, afternoon, evening, and maybe night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts with maybe some really strong gusts. It felt warm during the morning, late evening, and night. It felt really warm during the late evening. It felt hot during the afternoon. There was hazardous weather statement issued by NOAA for the Houston, TX area, for today. There were no other watches, warnings, alerts, weather statements, or advisories issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The low temps looked to be in the 70's and the high temps looked to be in the 90's, for the Houston, TX area.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: I am seeing some more rain chances come into the forecast for Houston, TX. There is also a chance that a tropical storm may land near Houston, TX sometime this week. I am excited to see what happens. I haven't been through a tropical system since hurricane IKE in 2008.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 403 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201200- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 403 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Peak heat index values in the 100 to 106 range will be possible late this morning through early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Elevated tides and an enhanced rip current risk may develop along Gulf-facing beaches by the middle of the week if a tropical system develops in the Gulf of Mexico. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. $$
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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110 FXUS64 KHGX 200250 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 950 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .UPDATE... Save for a lone thunderstorm rolling across Wharton and Jackson Counties this evening, all earlier convection along the sea breeze has dissipated. Lowered PoPs for the remainder of the evening to reflect these trends, with minor updates made to temperatures and dewpoints based on observational trends. Expect overnight lows to fall into the mid 70s to low 80s under partly cloudy skies. Regarding Potential Tropical Cyclone Three, satellite presentation for this disturbance remains largely unorganized with most of the convection associated with this disturbance located well east of the center. The center of the disturbance itself is still very difficult to ascertain with several vorticity lobes (or areas of spin) over the central Gulf offering misleading representations of where this center may be. As a result, the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will see continued refinements over the next few advisories and Southeast Texans (especially those with marine interests) are asked to keep up with the forecast over the next few days. With 18Z and preliminary 00Z guidance showing a rather broad windfield in association with this system as it moves towards the west-northwest over the next few days (and consistent with the National Hurricane Center), have updated the wind grids Tuesday through Thursday morning to reflect at least some influence from this system over the offshore (20-60 nautical mile) waters. However, even with these adjustments, no Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings are currently in effect for any of the coastal waters between the Matagorda Ship Channel to High Island. Huffman/43 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ AVIATION... A strong storm has developed along the sea breeze near KSGR and this cell will push SW and away from the airport. Other airports look to remain quiet for the next hour or so but convection over extreme East Texas may move into the region from the NE. Will carry a VCSH/VCTS for TAF sites through 04-05z as residual heating and PW values near 2.00 inches should foster some precipitation. Amdar soundings and GFS bufr soundings show some capping near 700 mb and this will probably work against an increase in coverage. VFR conds expected overnight with maybe some light fog at KCXO toward sunrise. VFR conditions expected on Tuesday with a sct-bkn deck near 5000 ft in the afternoon. WInds will begin to increase at KGLS during the afternoon and added a gust group for GLS. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/ DISCUSSION... Major question of the forecast is obviously Potential Tropical Cyclone 3, located north of the Yucatan Peninsula, currently given an 80 percent chance of development in the next couple of days by NHC. At this time, think any developing storm will be heavily sheared with most impacts to our east. However, any western deviation in track would begin to slide impacts into our area - it`s a close call, so continue to monitor the forecast. SHORT TERM [Through Tonight]... Through tomorrow, the typical summertime pattern should reign for most of the area, though by Tuesday afternoon falling heights aloft should help allow for increased convection over the Gulf waters and potentially the immediate coast. In the meantime, very isolated activity along the seabreeze is possible into the evening hours before the loss of sun wanes activity. MEDIUM TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The most impactful portion of the forecast is also the most uncertain. Fortunately, the guidance envelope has shrunk today. Still, the west outliers come ashore around Galveston Bay, so we are not totally out of the woods yet. If we were to assume a west outlier landfall, the storm should still be heavily sheared to the east, keeping much of the impacts east of the Houston metro. The forecast is based off of a very reasonable track presented through collaboration with NHC and WPC, which occurs even more to the east of our area. Some borderline likely PoPs crop up late Wednesday along our eastern border, but the vast majority of the area will see a chance of rain or drier. Similarly, it may be a bit breezy our of the northeast on the west side of the cyclone, but nothing excessive - it may be not even be quite at a level that would necessitate a wind advisory. Now, with all that said, we still lack a true center, which makes model guidance considerable more unreliable that usual, as specific models may or may not accurately determine where the eventual center will take hold. If you`ve been watching the satellite (especially G- 16) today, you`ve seen multiple little whorls near or ejected from the convective mass over the Gulf. None so far have taken as a more dominant center of circulation. Once a more dominant center emerges, guidance should become more reliable. Until - and even after - then, continue to monitor the forecasts, and still stand ready to take necessary precautions in case of a move to the west, as rainfall of 6 to 8 inches or more will be possible in such an instance. LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... Now, regardless of guidance, this potential TC looks to accelerate northeast of the area Friday, leaving us with a return to a more typical June atmosphere. The big change from the past several days, however, is that the southwestern US ridge will be weaker, and though the Atlantic subtropical ridge will be working to build westward, it will largely set up deep onshore flow, which should boost precipitation potential. So, rather than the very dry weather we`ve seen lately, scattered showers and storms should again return to be more the rule. The retreat of the southwestern US ridge should also result in slightly cooler temperatures, with highs closer to 90 degrees than the middle 90s. AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... Convection from the overnight MCS is still trying to move south into the CWA early this afternoon, but not finding much success (given the strong cap over the region). However will maintain a mention of VCTS/VCSH for most sites through the late afternoon/ early evening as outflow boundaries (moving south) and the sea-breeze (moving north) possibly interact. Thereafter, much drier conditions will prevail as NE winds develop overnight/early to-morrow morning and persist. 41 MARINE... Winds will continue to slowly shift to the E/NE tonight as the area of disturbed weather approaches in from the southern/central Gulf. Wind speeds should begin to increase over the coastal waters during the afternoon tomorrow (with seas following suit). Caution/Advisory flags are likely by this time but could be upgraded/tweaked depend- ing on the track/evolution of the Gulf system through Thurs. Marine interests and mariners should stay abreast with the latest updates. Onshore winds are expected to return to the area by the latter part of the week. 41 TROPICAL... Implications of the potential tropical cyclone north of the Yucatan are discussed in the middle week section above. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is now Tropical Storm Bret, located in the Atlantic Ocean about 125 miles southeast of Trinidad. Expectations continue for it to move to the WNW, along or just north of the South American coast. It is also expected to struggle with shear in the Caribbean Sea and travel at a very low latitude. It is very unlikely to impact our area. But, until dissipated, a storm to the south and east is one to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 94 75 95 75 / 10 10 0 10 20 Houston (IAH) 77 95 78 94 76 / 20 10 10 30 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 82 89 81 / 10 30 30 40 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ Discussion...14