Northwest Houston, TX, during the early morning.
West Houston, TX, during the early afternoon.
Northwest Houston, TX, during the early evening.
Summary: The day was mostly cloudy, a little wet, and warm. Light to moderately heavy and some really heavy showers and maybe a few thunderstorms passed through the Houston, TX area, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I saw some light sprinkles in west Houston, TX during the morning and then a series of brief light to moderately heavy showers passed through where I work in west Houston, TX, during the afternoon. The wind speeds were calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts. No advisories, watches, warnings, alerts, or weather statements \were issued for the Houston, TX area, that I know of. The sky stayed mostly cloudy to cloudy all day. The low temps were in the 60's, I think with highs in the 80's, or maybe 70's, for the Houston, TX area.
Locations: Northwest and west Houston, TX.
Thoughts: I saw more rain than I thought I would. I am wondering if Houston, TX will get anymore rain on Tuesday. Houston, TX hasn't had that much rain lately.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 110322 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1022 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017 .UPDATE... A challenging forecast continues to unfold for Southeast Texas this evening with surface analysis showing a nearly stationary cold front draped north and west of the region (roughly along a Dryden- Lampasas- Mount Pleasant line). Regional radar mosaic shows thunderstorms continuing to develop and intensify along this line, possibly aided by upper level lift from a disturbance lifting into West Texas from New Mexico. With these aforementioned features remaining well removed from the region and aircraft soundings out of Houston showing a persistent capping inversion around 700 mb, shower and thunderstorm activity near the region diminished with loss of heating earlier this evening and has remained minimal. Have lowered rain chances and rain totals through the remainder of the evening as a result. Other changes to the forecast include updating temperatures and dew points based on hourly trends with overnight lows in the 60s to near 70 under mostly cloudy skies. Convective evolution for the overnight period and through most of the day Tuesday still contains considerable uncertainty. High resolution guidance has been indicating that the disturbance over West Texas may provide enough lift to allow thunderstorms along the front to grow upscale and generate a strong enough cold pool to allow this complex to propagate away from the front and into Central or Southeast Texas tonight and into tomorrow morning. However, this guidance continues to struggle with placement and timing of this feature... likely owing to the presence of the strong cap in place across Southeast Texas. Were this system to develop, anticipate it to lose much of its intensity during the early morning hours as it approaches the Interstate 10 corridor as a result of the cap in place. The frontal boundary north of the region is not expected to make much southward progress overnight, but maintaining the Flash Flood Watch in place across the northern two tiers of counties given the potential for activity along the stalled frontal boundary to move off of the boundary. Environmental conditions still remain very favorable for a flash flood threat to materialize across these areas (SPC Mesoanalysis showing precipitable water values across the Flash Flood Watch area 1.5-1.7 inches), but the focusing mechanism for thunderstorms capable of heavy rain development is still uncertain at this time with the front still north of the region and any potential thunderstorm complexes having not yet developed. With the disturbance over West Texas reaching East Texas sometime during the day tomorrow (possibly as late as tomorrow afternoon), the stalled frontal boundary should receive enough of a push to move into the region. This would result in another round of shower and thunderstorm development (especially if the front were able to move through late enough in the day to take advantage of any destabilization from diurnal heating) but timing for this potential round remains uncertain at best... sometime Tuesday morning or later, depending on the speed of the disturbance. Huffman && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ AVIATION... Confidence remains low with regard to convective potential tonight. Will maintain the tempo for thunder at both KCLL and KUTS but confidence wanes quickly for TAF sites south of these airports. Prefer to take a cautious approach and just mention VCSH/VCTS after 09z for the Houston terminals southward. The latest HRRR and RAP want to take the precip west of the region and fcst soundings show the best potential for precip to be early Tuesday morning between 10-16z. AMDAR soundings currently show a very stout cap in place over Houston. Fcst soundings keeps skies generally cloudy with MVFR cigs. Think there will be enough mixing to of dry air above 800 mb to create VFR conds by late aftn. 43 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/ DISCUSSION... Obs at 20Z show cold front now from San Angelo to the DFW Metroplex. Convection is forming along the front but not very strong. A strong/severe storm has formed over Milam County in central Texas so we getting some indication that the capping inversion from the elevated mixed layer may be eroding. AMDAR and CRP/DRT/LCH soundings this morning all had a strong cap around 850-700mb. AMDAR soundings do show that capping inversion still in place but weaker north of Houston. Weak ascent from ageostrophic circulation with the cold front may indeed be enough to locally weaken the cap allowing for surface based storms in the warm sector. Aloft water vapor imagery really does not show much in the way of a jet streak for shortwave for lift so overall neutral vorticity advection. There is a shortwave back over Arizona which could impact the area Tuesday morning. Severe Threat Tonight...With at least some heating, cap slowly eroding, dewpoints in the low 70s and the front pushing south, there is a window for severe weather this evening and tonight mainly north of a Wharton/Cleveland line. The main threat will be more closer to Brenham/Livingston northward, but should the line of storms evolve like the HRRR suggests with its many recent runs, a line of storms could push south. With capping stronger to the south, the line of storms would likely decrease in intensity but still pose a threat for hail/wind. Instability at least for the next 4-6 hours with day time heating will support CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg over much of the threat area. Lapse rates are steep on area soundings so large hail will be a threat. Deep layer shear should be strong enough to support rotating cells like the one in Milam County which will help with hail threat. Look for any supercell to eventually gust out and possibly form into a line or bowing segment. Basic timing for the storms will be mainly from now through midnight. After midnight HRRR keeps most of the convection over central Texas with a line of storms driving south. Heavy rainfall threat...main threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding exists again over the same area for severe weather. This area is mainly from Brenham to Livingston. Storm motions will be around 20 knots so storms with rain rates of 1-2 inches an hour could produce locally heavy rainfall. If rain rates are higher, flood threat will only increase. There should be plenty of moisture with 1.6-1.8 inches of precipitable water. Of particular interest is the increase winds on KHGX VAD wind profile at 1000-4000FT AGL with now 35 knots at 2000-3000FT. This will certainly help with heavy rainfall threat if this LLJ can be maintained through the night and provide inflow to storms moving along the cold front. Since the environment supports the potential for flash flooding, a flash flood watch has been issued for the northern 1/3 of counties in SE Texas and matches up with the watch for central Texas. Rainfall amounts in the watch area will likely be 2-3 inches but a few HRRR runs shows isolated amounts of 4-6 inches. Given the environment this may be the upper end of rainfall amounts but enough for a flood threat. Tuesday is a challenging forecast since it largely depends on what happens tonight. There is a shortwave trough coming across Texas from Arizona. Seems to reason that there will be another round of storms for the area so will keep some rain chances going for the forecast. But the mesoscale could really mess up the forecast. Overnight convection with a squall line could very well stabilize the boundary layer for much of the day Tuesday and lead to a rain cool but dry day with no rain. For now rather count on the shortwave trough acting as a trigger for more convection assuming there may be enough recovery of moisture/instability from previous convection. Overpeck MARINE... A moderate/strong onshore flow will persist across the marine areas the rest of the this afternoon into this evening. We should see the gradient relax overnight as a cold front approaches from the north. This boundary is expected to stall just north of SE TX, but a large area of storms developing along this system could track south into SE TX. However, not expecting these storms to reach the coastal waters at this time. This front should wash out/move back to the north by Wed. Generally moderate onshore winds will persist the remainder of the week. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 76 63 82 64 / 70 60 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 67 77 64 82 65 / 40 50 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 72 76 70 79 70 / 20 30 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...Madison... Trinity...Walker...Washington. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...14
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-112000- Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend- Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda- Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington- Wharton- 255 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight over southeast Texas mainly north of a Columbus...Conroe...Livingston line. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. These storms may also produce heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. A flash flood watch has been issued through tomorrow morning for the area. Severe weather and flooding is not expected to push into the Houston and coastal areas, but we will be monitoring for the possibility of a line of storms to push into the area later tonight. This line may weaken as it pushes south. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight. $$
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