Monday, February 20, 2017

Feb. 8 17

Northwest Houston, TX during the early night.


Notes: Big to small, bright white mixed with light to dark grey, thick, flat, puffy, low stratus clouds looked to cover most of, or maybe the whole sky in northwest Houston, TX during the early and mid-morning. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, wavy, high stratus clouds looked to have started to cover most of the sky in northwest Houston, TX, sometime during the early afternoon, or maybe late morning. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, wavy, high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early afternoon. Big to small, bright white, thick, flat, wavy, high stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky in northwest Houston, TX during the mid and late afternoon, and early evening. Most of the high stratus clouds looked to be clearing in northwest Houston, TX during the late evening. There looked to be only a few small to medium, bright white, thick, flat, wavy, high stratus clouds in the sky in northwest Houston, TX during the early night. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some moderate to moderately strong guts in northwest Houston, TX during the morning. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early afternoon. The wind speeds looked to be calm with moderate to moderately strong gusts in northwest Houston, TX during the mid and late afternoon and evening. The wind speeds looked to be calm with maybe some moderate and moderately strong gusts in northwest Houston, TX during the early night. It felt warm in northwest Houston, TX during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel very warm, almost hot in northwest Houston, TX, sometime during the late morning, or maybe early afternoon. It felt very warm, almost hot in northwest and west Houston, TX during the early afternoon. It felt very warm, almost hot in northwest Houston, TX during the mid and late afternoon. It felt very warm in northwest Houston, TX during the early evening. It felt warm in northwest Houston, TX during the late evening and early night. There looked to have been a dense fog advisory for the coastal areas of Houston, TX during the morning and night. There looked to be a fire weather advisory for Houston, TX, during the day. There was a 0 to 20 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the day. The low temps were in the 70's and maybe low 80's in some areas and the highs were in the mid to high 80's, in areas in and around Houston, TX.


Summary: The day was very warm, dry, and sunny. I didn't feel, see, or hear about any rain drops falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I don't remember seeing any rain anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area during anytime of the day. I didn't see any fog, or witness, or hear about any fires.


Thoughts: It was a very warm day. We broke more records. I am still excited to see some rain next week. It looks like Houston, TX will experience some cooler temperatures, closer to average, but still above, over the next couple of days. 


Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 090148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
748 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis shows pre-frontal trough to the coast and the
cold front lagging behind from Brenham to Conroe. Cold front is
pushing quickly southward and expect it to be to the coast over
the next couple of hours. So far there is patchy sea fog if any
along the coastal areas and once the pre-frontal trough passes
through, fog will no longer be an issue.

Main changes to the forecast were to adjust temperature trends for
the passing cold front. Low temperatures may be a degree or two
cooler than previous forecast but in general look for lows in the
40s to low 50s. High temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above
normal for tomorrow topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Forecast weather pattern remains dry through the weekend but an
upper level closed low over northern Mexico will begin to move
east early next week. Higher rain chances are expected for early
next week so something to keep an eye on for any weather impacts.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/

AVIATION...
TAFs this cycle are deceptively long given the relatively benign
weather. But winds will be consistently veering through the
period due to multiple boundaries and high pressure sliding by
tomorrow. Wanted to provide some resolution to those shifts,
necessitating relatively long forecasts. Otherwise, clear skies
and plenty of visibility, with one notable exception at GLS ahead
of the front this evening. Dry air has made less of a push towards
the coast in recent hours as the first boundary has gotten hung up
around the Houston core - this looks to allow for patchy fog to
crop up this evening before getting scoured out by the advancing
dry air. Have a brief period of MVFR visibility to account for
that. Could be more significant if the guidance is correct, but
think that it is too aggressive with visibility reductions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
At 2 PM, low pressure was located eastern Arkansas with a weak
trough of low pressure extending southwest through Lufkin to about
Victoria. Much drier air was on the west side of the trough axis
and RH values were below 25 percent over the western third of SE
TX. Will maintain the marginal Red Flag Warning for the western
counties through 5 PM. Temperature records were tied or broken at
all 4 primary climate sites again today but this should be the end
of the record heat for the next week or so as a weak cold front
approaches. At 2 PM, the cold front extends from about Texarkana
to Waco to east of San Angelo. The front will continue to push
south this evening and should reach the College Station area by 6
PM and the Houston region between 8 PM and 10 PM and the coast
between 10 PM and midnight. Not much moisture associated with the
front so not expecting any precip but a trend toward cooler
temperatures will begin. High temps will warm into the upper 60s
on Thursday under sunny skies. Friday will begin clear but some
increase in low level moisture will bring clouds into the area in
the afternoon as surface high pressure moves to the east. Fcst
soundings show a saturated layer up to 850 mb Friday night so a
few streamer showers will be possible Friday night into Saturday
morning. Temps will trend much warmer Fri Night and high temps on
Saturday will once again warm to near 80. Can`t rule out an
isolated shower on Saturday but dry air above 900 mb should keep
things on the dry side.

PW values increase on Sunday and reach 1.25 inches in the aftn and
a weak cold front will enter SE TX and become nearly stationary
near the coast Sunday night into Monday. Should begin to see an
increase in showers late Sunday into Sunday night as moisture
levels deepen. High temps on Sunday will once again warm to near
80 degrees. An upper low over the intermountain west will drift
south late in the weekend through early next week. This feature
will begin to drift east Tue/Wed. Still some significant timing
differences between the GFS and the ECMWF and since upper lows
tend to move slowly have leaned toward the slower GFS. An extended
period of unsettled weather is expected Tues/Wed as the upper
level feature approaches and a weak surface low develops and
focuses strong surface convergence over SE TX. Could get some
pockets of heavy rain Tues into Wednesday. 43

MARINE...
Short-lived marine fog could redevelop this evening as the waters
fall just downstream of an approaching cold front. Any patchy
evening fog will quickly disperse once the front clears the coast
during the late evening hours. Strengthened winds and elevated seas
in the front`s wake going into early Thursday morning. Caution level
winds over the bay and nearshore waters with advisory level offshore
winds through Thursday morning. Seas will respond by lifting to 3 to
5 feet nearshore...6 to 8 feet offshore through Friday. High
pressure moving off to the east will have Thursday`s weakening
easterly flow becoming onshore Friday. Deepening leeward Rocky
Mountain pressure ahead of next week`s cold front will tighten
the weekend onshore pressure gradient. Near caution level winds
over the Gulf this weekend over 3-5 foot nearshore...4-6 foot
offshore seas. Long range model guidance diverges concerning a
possible early to mid week strong storm system. Either way...it
appears that there will be hazardous boating conditions from as
early as next Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      45  68  47  73  63 /   0   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)              50  70  50  74  65 /   0   0  10  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            57  68  59  70  65 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from midnight CST tonight
     through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20
     NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday
     for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
     Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...39

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