Summary: I was inside for most of the day but I think the sky was mostly clear with a few white, flat, alto stratus clouds scattered about. It felt warm, during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds felt to be calm with maybe some light gusts. I did not hear about or see any rain falling anywhere in or near the Houston, TX area, where I was, during the day. I did not see, or feel any rain drops where I was, during the day.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 112323 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 523 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR conditions are expected through the period with light NE to E winds. SCT to BKN cigs around 4 to 5kft are expected along and west of KCLL and KLBX terminals late tonight into early Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 256 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020/... .DISCUSSION... Fairly quiet weather is expected to continue into next week. Despite a cold front pushing across the area this morning, do not expect much actual decrease in daytime temperatures, though we may get a cooler night or two thanks to drier air. The stretch of warmer days should finally be put to an end by a stronger cold front on Sunday, though `stronger` is definitely being used as a relative term here. This front should bring a modestly higher chance of showers, and temperatures will become more seasonable next week in the wake of that front. .SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... With the weak cold front just off the upper TX coast, a cool/quiet night is on tap for SE TX as the drier air mass continues to move into the area. Some very shallow/patchy fog is possible for parts of the CWA overnight (mainly SW and coastal counties), but should be very limited and brief. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 50s far inland to the upper 50s/around 60 further south to the coast. Tomorrow will be another dry one with temperatures climbing to above normal once again. The light NE winds overnight will slowly shift to the E/SE by the afternoon as surface high pressure weakens/drifts to the east. Highs tomorrow are forecast to range from the lower to mid 80s. .LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]... There is a distinct possibility that a weak reinforcing front on the edge of Central Plains high pressure will be just to the northeast of our area - but given the strength of the subtropical ridging in place aloft and the general lack of much cold air to the north to drive the front, I`m not sure how much it`s really worth mentioning. More likely, Friday in our area should be marked by the resumption of low level onshore flow, kicking off some moisture return from the Gulf this weekend. In the meantime, with little cold air behind this front to speak of, low temps should be expected to dip only on the strength of radiational cooling under clearer skies, and daytime temps should remain on the warm side. We might see enough of a rebound in moisture to support some streamer showers over the area as early as Saturday morning - the Euro shows precisely this outcome. I`m a bit more skeptical, and given that these weak and isolated showers merit low PoPs for specific points even when confidence in their existence somewhere in the area is high...I`m just going to keep the forecast dry for now. Should confidence rise, we can introduce more typical rain chances for this setup in the days to come. But also on Saturday, a stronger upper trough will begin to drop off the Rockies, pushing the upper ridge eastward over Florida. At the surface, cyclogenesis over Kansas will get the beginnings a new low pressure center that will develop and eject northeastward toward the Great Lakes. As the low strengthens, we`ll see it trail a cold front that will pass through the area on Sunday. Moisture availability is probably going to still be limited, and rain chances should be low, and tied pretty closely to pooling on/near the frontal boundary. There is some more noticeable cooler air progged to get together behind this cold front, and while the drop in temperatures may not be huge, there is a decided dip in the NBM temperature range for the first half of next week. It seems pretty probable for us to manage at least more seasonable conditions. In addition to be noticeably cooler, it should also be pretty dry, and any low chances of rain near the front should disappear pretty quickly, and stay out of the picture early next week. .MARINE... A weak cold front has nearly pushed nearly 60 nm offshore by this afternoon, and should fully clear the coastal waters shortly. As high pressure pushes into the Plains, the pressure gradient over the waters will increase, and expect moderate northeast winds to prevail tonight. Light to moderate winds will continue into the end of the week, when onshore winds resume Friday. As warmer, more humid air surges back over the nearshore waters, there is an outside possibility of some patchy sea fog. However, the warm temperatures this week will also help heat up the shallow waters. This would certainly mitigate the impact of any early season fog, and really does make the potential of any sea fog at all a very uncertain proposition. Another cold front is expected to cross the coastal waters Sunday night, carrying a low chance of showers on Sunday. Stronger northeast winds should develop in the wake of that front Sunday night into Monday. At this time, SCEC conditions appear likely, and a small craft advisory is a plausible scenario. Stay tuned as we refine the evolution of this frontal passage in the coming days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 53 83 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 58 83 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 80 66 76 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM...Luchs AVIATION...05 MARINE...Luchs
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