Summary: Low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, during the morning. Low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the afternoon, evening, and early night. The wind speeds felt to be light with moderate gusts. It felt to be cool, during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel warm, during the late morning. It felt warm, during the afternoon and evening. It felt a little cool, during the early night. On and off light drizzle and moderate to moderately heavy rain persisted from the late morning through the evening, where I work in the Heights area.
Thoughts: Was happy to finally see some rain. I am hoping to see some more before this week is over.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 242326 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Some scattered showers will linger around CXO southward for a few more more hours, but then will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. Then the main forecast concern becomes the passage of a cold front later tonight moving from the northwest to the southeast. FROPA will occur at CLL-UTS-CXO first around 1 to 3am bringing with it a line of thunderstorms. The front will continue to trek toward I-45 by 2 to 5am, but will be weakening as it does so. Thus, it should only bring scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm to IAH southward. MVFR CIGs of 1000 to 2000ft will develop tonight across the area, but will scatter out after the FROPA. The northerly wind shift will lag behind the line of thunderstorms by a few hours with a northerly wind starting by the early to mid morning for the area and continue through the day. VFR conditions will develop across the area by the afternoon tomorrow and prevail through the rest of the day. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 322 PM CST Tue Nov 24 2020/... .SHORT TERM [through Thursday]... Scattered light to moderate showers will continue to develop and move north-northwest through this evening. This activity is related to a broad area of increasing warm air advection and a weak vort max aloft. As the evening progresses, showers will gradually taper off before more precipitation arrives later tonight as a cold front moves through. Upper-level trough, currently over the Texas Panhandle and western OK, will continue to track east-northeast over the Plains tonight, pushing a cold front through the region. The approaching cold front is expected to track through Brazos Valley between 1 - 3 AM CST, then through the coastal counties by late Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front, with locations along and north of I-10 being the most favorable for rain chances during the morning hours. Given some decent CAPE, 850:700mb frontogenesis (if we follow NAM) and low to mid-level instability, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across our farther northern counties (around Houston and Trinity counties). Strong winds up 45 mph and small hail will be the main risks. As the system continues to move over the Gulf waters late morning/early afternoon, rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours. Drier and northerly air filters in by late Wednesday afternoon. Highs will generally be from the mid 60s to upper 70s. High temperatures may end up being a few degrees lower than currently advertised due to cold air advection. With light northerly winds and a drier airmass in place, temperatures could drop into the 40s farther inland and in the lower 60s along the coast by early Thursday morning. Surface high pressure quickly shifts to the east by Thursday morning, leaving us with a relatively dry but warm Thanksgiving. Highs will climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Tuesday]... On Thursday night, surface high pressure will be east of the region allowing an onshore flow to resume and strengthen as pressures fall in West Texas. Strong warm air advection will allow the development of light rain Thursday evening. A cold front will move south late Friday night and slow considerably or possibly stall as weak low pressure tries to develop along the front in SW Texas. The boundary will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Friday. PW values on Friday will be between 1.8 and 2.0 inches which is well above climo for this time of year. High moisture, favorable jet dynamics (splitting jet) and a slow moving boundary are the necessary ingredients to produce heavy rain and these look to be in place on Friday into Friday night. The low over South Texas remains nearly anchored in place as an upper low over the desert SW slowly moves eastward. A weak surface trough will extend north into SE TX and this feature will likely serve as another boundary for rain to focus on as we move into Saturday. PW values begin to fall on Saturday but 300 mb winds still show a well defined split and inflow on the east of the slow moving upper trough still looks very favorable for rain. The ECMWF keeps SE TX in a well defined jet couplet for much of the day. Forecast soundings show a semi- saturated moisture profile which generally indicates potential for heavy rain as well. By Saturday night, the upper trough begins to move east across the TX panhandle and this helps to initiate stronger cyclogenesis in South Texas and assists in ejecting the sfc low to the NE. The low will move quickly N-NE and approach NW LA by early Sunday. As the low pushes through, it will drag a cold front across SE TX with a final burst of rain. At this time, it looks like a solid 1 to 3 inches of rain possible Friday/Saturday with some isolated totals between 3 and 5 inches. The area has been dry so depending on where and how quickly the rain falls will ultimately determine the flood risk. Have carried rain chances into Sunday but to be honest, feel this is overkill as the area will likely get dry slotted in the wake of the low. Think skies will clear by afternoon but strong cold air advection and a stiff northwest wind will make if feel rather cold. 850 mb temps really take a tumble and MaxT values will struggle to warm into the lower 60`s. High pressure will build into the region on Monday and surface winds don`t fully decouple so kept MinT values a little warmer than the clear and dry conds would otherwise suggest. Conversely, went a bit cooler on Tuesday morning as winds go calm with the dry and clear conditions still in place. 850 mb temps remain very cold for this time of year and high temperatures will struggle to reach 60 degrees both Monday and Tuesday. .MARINE... Elevated seas and moderate to strong onshore flow will continue this evening and overnight in advance of an approaching cold front. This frontal boundary will move over the coastal zones around daybreak (6- 8 AM), continuing through the offshore waters throughout the day. Given gusty winds around 20 to 25 knots and seas up to 6 ft ahead of front, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the offshore waters and a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions nearshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected along and ahead the front. Some erratic wind gusts up to 35 knots can be possible with any storms. Conditions should begin to improve by late Wednesday afternoon/early evening with light north to north east winds and seas up to 4 ft. Low clouds and/or patchy fog cannot be ruled out late Wednesday night into Thursday on the back edge of departing front. Light to moderate offshore flow returns Thursday night into Saturday, before a stronger cold front moves through. This next system has the potential to bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. In the wake of this front, building seas from 5 to 7+ ft will be possible. Continue to monitor the latest forecast conditions through the upcoming week as some marine advisories/warnings will be possible at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 56 69 45 77 64 / 60 0 0 0 50 Houston (IAH) 67 76 53 78 67 / 50 30 0 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 71 78 65 76 71 / 40 50 0 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 AM CST Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...43 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...05
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