Summary: Low white stratus clouds looked to cover the whole sky, during the early and mid-morning. White and grey stratus clouds looked to have started to become scattered across the sky, sometime during the late morning or early afternoon, and continued on through maybe the whole afternoon. The sky looked to have become clear sometime during the evening, or maybe afternoon. The sky looked to be clear during the night. The wind speeds were light with moderate gusts. It felt warm during the morning, afternoon, evening, and night. I believe there was a 20 to 30 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area, during the morning and afternoon. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in, or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. There was a moderate dense fog with some possible heavy dense fog in certain areas of Houston, TX, during the early and mid-morning. I saw some moderate dense fog with some possible light rain drops where I was in the Houston, TX area, during the mid-morning.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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000 FXUS64 KHGX 220202 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 802 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020 .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... Large area of cloudiness over the western half of the region with some light rain/showers near Matagorda Bay and the southwestern waters along with a few sprinkles up near Columbus. Expect the coverage to gradually diminish this evening and a pleasant night to prevail with an expansion of the cloud cover. Some patchy fog is possible but don`t anticipate a dense fog advisory being needed tonight given the drier air in place and the larger T/Td spreads we are starting off with tonight. Moisture does pool somewhat over the northwestern 1/3 of the area Sunday ahead of the weak cold front and expect some spotty showers to develop beneath the cap. 45 && .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... VFR with a mix of 4000-7000 ft SCT-BKN deck over the region from UTS-IAH-LBX. This deck should expand somewhat to the east and south and some patchy 1500-2500 ft clouds should develop and spread west through the area beneath the aforementioned deck. Slightly better radiational cooling potential over the east but the air is drier and so for now will hold off on any significant fog in the TAFs. Skies slow to scatter out over IAH/HOU Sunday and may not ahead of the incoming weak cold front. Have added some VCSH to the CLL TAF after 20z with the rain chances mainly confined to the area from UTS to CLL to 66R. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 303 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2020/... .LONG TERM [Tuesday through Friday Night]... A couple of fronts will bring chances for rain and storms and above average temperatures for Thanksgiving week. Ridging aloft gradually shifts east of the region while moisture advection increases in the wake of a warm front and a stronger upper- level trough moving through the Plains on Tuesday. Models suggest 850 hPa temperatures rising near 14 to 16C Tuesday afternoon and evening, resulting in warmer temperatures at the surface. Warmer temperatures and decent mixing will also lead to breezy conditions. Deterministic and probabilistic models are in good agreement that the aforementioned upper-trough will track from the central Plains through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Although stronger forcing will remain north of the forecast area, cannot rule out isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of its associated cold front tracking through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cold front moves over the water by Wednesday morning while drier northwest winds filter in. While a significant drop in temperatures and dewpoints is not anticipated with this frontal boundary, it will feel pleasant as dewpoint drops into the 40s to 50s degrees range. High pressure system builds in to our northeast bringing back east to southeast winds and warmer conditions for Thanksgiving. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 70s; this is around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Unsettled weather quickly returns Friday into the weekend as a longwave trough and associated cold front move through the Plains. There is still a lot of uncertainty with the development of this system as global models diverge on their solutions. The broad consensus is that precipitation chances look to increase across eastern Texas with PWATs values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch-range. Again, there is a high degree of uncertainty at that time range. The main takeaway for now is that active weather looks possible towards the end of the month. 05 .MARINE... Swells continue to propagate into the coastal waters this afternoon and seas remain at 6 feet so will maintain the SCEC through 06z tonight. With an easterly component to the surface wind, the swell period will be slow to dampen out and the SCEC may need to be extended. A weak cold front will move into the coastal waters late Sunday night with a moderate NE flow developing. The flow will become east by late Monday as high pressure over the southern plains moves east. The flow will become SE Monday night as pressure fall in West Texas. A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will prevail Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the coastal waters on Wednesday with an offshore flow redeveloping. High pressure over the southern plains will move east quickly a return flow becomes reestablished by Thursday morning. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 75 54 74 57 / 10 20 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 59 78 58 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 77 64 75 65 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CST this evening for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 AM CST Sunday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...45 MARINE...41
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