Sunday, November 8, 2020

Nov. 8 2020

 Summary: Cloudy in the morning with stratus clouds scattered across the sky, during the early and mid-afternoon. The sky looked to have become mostly clear, maybe clear, during the late afternoon and stayed mostly clear/maybe clear through the early night. The wind speeds were calm with light winds. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in or near the Houston, TX area, during anytime of the day. I did not feel, or see any rain drops falling, where I was, during anytime of the day. It felt a little cool, during the early and mid-morning. It felt warm during the late morning. It felt very warm, during the early and mid-afternoon. It felt warm during the late afternoon, evening, and early night.

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 082353
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
553 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2020

.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...

East to southeast winds continue to supply low-level moisture to
the region, and we continue to anticipate the development of areas
of fog and MVFR to IFR cigs overnight once again. SREF
probabilistic guidance continues to strongly favor widespread
reduced visibilities and IFR cigs at most terminals between
approximately 09 and 12Z tonight. NAM/GFS forecast soundings
concurrently indicate the development of BKN to OVC decks at
around 600-800ft during this time. While visibilities should
improve by mid- morning, cigs will be slow to lift and MVFR
conditions could persist well into tomorrow afternoon.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight and Monday]...
Look for another round of low clouds and fog to develop
tonight...slowly scattering out Monday afternoon. NNW-SSE oriented
moisture axis currently producing some iso/sct precip across
Louisiana will be edging further west into east/southeast Texas
tomorrow. Can`t totally rule out some isolated activity here, though
it`ll mostly be the exception and not the rule. Added some lowish
POPs to the fcst. Otherwise, lows in the 60s & highs in the 80s. 47

LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Sunday]...
Warm and fairly humid weather will start the period with onshore
flow. A cold front will work its way into the area from NW to SE
on Tuesday into Wednesday but likely stall...wash out before
making it to the coast. This front may bring rain showers to some
spots...but probably only measurable for 20 to 30 percent of the
area...and not much rainfall to those that get it, likely a tenth
of an inch or less.

Flow becomes onshore again Thursday and Friday with increasingly
humid marine airmass overspreading the area. The next cold front
to push through the area perhaps Saturday night or Sunday if the
ECMWF is right...perhaps Monday in the GFS...but has we`ve seen
again and again...plenty of uncertainty in timing and position of
those cold fronts for days 6 and beyond.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Eta will intensify into a hurricane and
move across the FL Keys into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico in the
Monday through Wednesday time period. From there some uncertainty
in the track but most models curling it back toward the Gulf
coast of FL. For detailed Eta information...follow the National
Hurricane Center. In any case Eta not expected to impact Texas
except for perhaps some increase in surf from long period swell
emanating from Eta. For more on this see marine section. 18

MARINE...
Easterly swell associated with the wind field around Eta will
continue to move across our waters for a good portion of the week.
In general, expect 4-6ft seas in the 20-60nm group which may
require the caution flags at times. For now they`ve been holding
fairly steady right around 5ft so will let the current headline
expire and let future shifts reevaluate things. Rip currents will
also be a periodic issue along area beaches, especially around
jetties, piers & rock groins. Water levels are running around 1.5
ft above normal and should peak slightly above 3 ft around times
of high tide. Not anticipating coastal flood issues other than a
bit of elevated wave run-up at the beach during the high tide
cycles. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      65  82  67  81  56 /   0   0   0  20   0
Houston (IAH)              68  82  67  83  63 /  10  20   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)            71  79  70  80  67 /  10  20   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CST this evening for the
     following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and
     Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

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