Summary: High and low white and grey stratus clouds looked to cover most of the sky, during the morning and early and mid-afternoon. I noticed that the sky looked to be clear while I was at work in the heights area, during the late afternoon. The sky continued to look clear, during the evening and night. It felt cool, during the early and mid-morning. It started to feel a little cool, almost warm, during the late morning. It felt a little cool, almost warm, during the early afternoon. It felt warm, during the mid and late afternoon, evening, and night. The wind speeds felt to be light with moderate gusts. I did not see, or hear about any rain falling anywhere in the Houston, TX area, during any time of the day. It had looked like it wanted to rain while I was at work in the heights area, during the late morning and early afternoon. The ground looked to be wet from a possible shower when I arrived at my house in the Copperfield area, around 7 pm. I believe there was 0 percent chance for rain for the Houston, TX area.
Thoughts: The Houston, TX area looks to have maybe gotten some rain today?
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000 FXUS64 KHGX 200012 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 612 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... With a bit more moisture moving into SE TX and winds expected to decouple...the potential for widespread fog remains high for the area tonight through early tomorrow morning. MVFR/IFR conditions (for both VIS/CIGS) should develop after midnight and persist in to mid or late tomorrow/Fri morning. Additionally, MVFR CIGS may linger into the afternoon hours given the passage of a weak dis- turbance from the Gulf. This could also help increase chances of isolated to widely scattered showers from the south to north for tomorrow as well. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020/ SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) Clouds will begin to erode with the loss of heating and skies should begin to clear this evening. However, that clearing will be short lived as low level moisture continues to stream into the area beneath a strong capping inversion in the 850-700 mb layer. Could get some light patchy fog overnight but 15z SREF is pushing the fog westward with a low ceiling developing here instead. Will mention patchy fog in the weather grids and winds fully decouple, there could be pockets of locally dense fog. A weak trough of low pressure will develop over the western Gulf late tonight and move west across SE TX on Friday. Although moisture looks rather meager, fcst soundings do show saturation in a small layer beneath the cap and both the ARW and NMM show weak low pressure developing in the bass of the coastal trough. Low level convergence will strengthen on the east side of the trough and feel there could be some weak showers develop late tomorrow morning and linger into the afternoon. Weak warm air advection will help compensate for the increase in cloud cover and MaxT values should again warm to near 80 degrees. Clouds will briefly diminish Friday evening in the wake of the sfc trough but much like tonight, onshore winds will bring in additional low level moisture allowing clouds to redevelop late. This should help to insulate and MinT values are expected to remain mild. Still a corridor of slightly deeper moisture targeting the Matagorda Bay region on Saturday. Can`t really find a sfc trigger and capping is still strong but will toss in 20 PoPs for now over the SW zones. No appreciable change in 850 mb temps so will maintain MaxT values consistent with Friday with highs near 80 degrees. 43 LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) The extended period starts off with quasi-zonal flow aloft and persistent onshore flow at the surface due to high pressure over the eastern CONUS. A surge of theta-e advection in association to a surface trough will advance inland early Saturday. The combination of this forcing along with a weak capping inversion and decent low- level moisture (PWATs around 1-1.3 inches) will lead to isolated showers, mainly over the waters and coastal zones. A weak cold front may arrive Sunday into Monday. As stated in the previous discussion, model guidance shows two solutions: no front or a weak cold front; thus, no major impact across southeast TX is expected. Have leaned towards the ECMWF and NAM, which bring this weak boundary Sunday night into Monday. Given weak forcing and limited instability, have lowered PoPs during this timeframe. An upper-level trough and associated frontal boundary will move over the Rockies on Monday, and approach the southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance show a better structure with this system. Although models differ a bit in amplitude (strength), most of them are in good agreement in terms of timing. This scenario/system could result in stronger WAA/return flow surging into the region, bringing an increase in moisture and instability ahead of the front. High pressure quickly builds in behind the front, shifting to our east by Wednesday night. Thanksgiving looks dry but warm as return flow from the departing high brings southerly warm air into the region. 05 MARINE... High pressure over the eastern US and low pressure over West Texas will maintain an onshore flow through early Sunday. The pressure gradient doesn`t look particularly tight so just a light to moderate flow expected. Seas however, will remain slightly elevated as long period swells will likely continue to propagate into the area. Will carry 5-6 foot seas with seas dampening out tonight. Mariners in small craft should use caution tonight. A cold front might cross the coast on Sunday night into Monday but global models not in the best agreement as the GFS stubbornly refuses to bring the front through the coastal waters. Will continue to lean toward the consensus which brings the front through the waters late Sunday night. High pressure will build into the area on Monday and quickly shift east on Tuesday with an onshore flow redeveloping. Water levels will remain slightly elevated through the weekend with tide levels near or briefly exceeding 3.0 feet at high tide. No significant impacts expected. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 80 61 79 59 / 10 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 78 62 79 60 / 10 30 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 78 70 76 68 / 20 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for the following zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula...Matagorda Islands. GM...NONE. && $$
Rip Current Statement
Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 330 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 TXZ436>438-191730- /O.NEW.KHGX.RP.S.0052.201119T0930Z-201120T0600Z/ Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands- Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula- 330 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Matagorda Islands, Brazoria Islands and Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula Counties. * WHEN...Through this evening. * IMPACTS...Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. && $$
No comments:
Post a Comment